Arunachal Pradesh : Spotlight of Sino-Indian Tensions with Special
Reference to Brahmaputra Water Diversion Plan
Security Situation of India is deteriorating with each passing day .Recent developments taking place in Pakistan does remain a major cause of concern for New Delhi with the worst fears being contemplated by experts about the Talibanisation of Nuclear Pakistan.
Across the border ,India is finding itself in a very difficult situation owing to its worsening security order with terror attacks hitting the country at regular intervals on diverse locations.
Away from all these ,moving geographically eastwards on the Indian Map,one finds an equally acute situation slowly building-up on the Sino-Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh.
Originally known as NEFA ,this Northeastern state of India is suddenly driving the attention of many policy-makers of the country.
The reason for this sudden diversion of attention is attributed to the recent claims made by the Chinese govt. over Arunachal Pradesh and reports unofficially raised in the Indian media of growing Chinese incursions (DG,ITBP) in the area.
Also the issue raised by Arun Shourie claiming that the area is witnessing a heavy Chinese military build-up , something that has not been seen in many years is interesting to note.
The genesis of the controversy over Arunachal Pradesh dates back to the post-chinese revolution era when the Qing dynasty of china resigned and China ,Tibet and Mongolia became three separate entities.
Following this ,the agreement between Sir Henry Mcmahon and China is remarkable to note in which clear-cut borders with then British India and china were demarcated .Since then the Chinese have been remorseful of losing Arunachal Pradesh to India.
Arunachal Pradesh being claimed by China as being a part of then Ancient Tibetan Kingdom has an intrinsic and unexploited agricultural potential coupled by the fact that it is a potential tourist destination in the coming years.
Another issue which is interconnected with the tensions over Arunachal Pradesh is the Brahmaputra river.The Brahmaputra river also popularly known as Yarlung-Tsangpo river ,finds its origin in Mt.Kailash, Tibet. This river then flows eastwards crossing the vast stretches of Tibet and bends at Namcha Barwa to enter India.It then surges into Northeast-India and Bangladesh to meet the Bay of Bengal.
The point at which the Yarlung-Tsangpo river bends at Mt.Namcha Barwa and enters India is where the Chinese are seriously considering to create a diversion and allow the river to flow thousands of kilometers across the Tibetan Plateau and cater to the needs of Northwestern parts of China into the provinces of Xinjiang and Gansu.
Also on the cards is building a hydroelectric power plant realising the potential of this river to cater to the less-developed provinces of china.
Such a diversion is bound to create a precarious situation for both India and Bangladesh who are entirely dependent on the Brahmaputra river for their survival. It would seriously undermine the economic activities and the development of India’s eastern region and would leave the region entirely on the mercy of China.
Such a water diversion plan can be used as a blackmail tactic by china pressurize New Delhi to realize the Chinese claims over Arunachal Pradesh.Therefore it is not surprising to contemplate such a heavy Chinese military presence on the border fearing Indian retaliation when the issue rakes up in the future
Before commenting on the kind response required to face this Chinese non-military threat it is necessary to understand the genesis behind the diversion of this river into northern and northwestern China.
Causes of such water diversion can be affiliated to China’s domestic water shortage problems.China has substantial water resources.Despite its huge population of 1.26 billion people ,its per capita water resources are 2,343 m3/person/year substantially above the internationally accepted definition of water scarcity(i.e.,1000 m3/head/year).1
Even then owing to its rapidly growing economy China is not able to cope with the water problems .Especially the Northern Part of China which is booming with economic growth is facing an acute water shortage since about 60% of china’s population concentrating there are using only 20% of china’s water resources.
Taking this into consideration ,the Chinese policy makers have conceived three large-scale water diversion projects i.e.Yangtze Diversion project,Brahmaputra Diversion project and the Mekong Cascade Dams to cater to the water problems of china.These Projects involve the harnessing of the rivers orginating from the Tibetan Plateau and diverting it into the northern parts of china and also the western provinces of China.Part of the project also involves the maximum exploitation of the tremendous hydroelectrical potential of these rivers.
But many analysts are seeing these large-scale structural solutions not a permanent answer to china’s water problems and have therefore declined to fund these projects.
These projects apart from their short-term benefits will have an adverse effect over the environment and also a large number of people would have to be shifted from their homes in order to facilitate the diversion of rivers.
Instead analysts suggests a more realistic and practical solutions based on water conservation at a local level and advocate small-scale dams instead of large-scale structural solutions.
In the past there have been many cases of parts of river drying up and this is attributed to the rapid mushrooming of wells in areas adjacent to the rivers.
Such large-scale projects are certainly going to reap handsome economic gains for the Chinese but continuation of ill-conceived water policies will render these projects useless in the long-term.
Also such projects are going to have its heavy toll over the environment and the people .The Tibetan Plateau and the rivers originating from it harnesses more than 120 species of fish and other aquatic species and any change in the river course and the dam construction on these rivers are seriously going to affect its adaptation system.
Apart from all this, the main issue concerning India and China is the Brahmaputra Water Diversion Project and the unilateral decision of China to divert the natural river course of the Brahmaputra river on which the population of two major countries in South Asia depends for their economic development.This river is used by the population downstream for a wide range of purposes like navigation,agricultural activities,fishing etc.
Giving due consideration to China’s water problems it is necessary to acknowledge that they have an equal right to utilise their water resources the way they wish ,but at the sametime India’s position has to be acknowledged by the Chinese as well.
This water diversion is seen by many as tactics by the Chinese government to coerce India to make concessions over Towang and Arunachal Pradesh.It is a known fact that the reincarnation of the next Dalai Lama can only be done with consent of the Towang Monastery and also the economic potential of the North-East Indian state is well known and hence China recognize that the Water of River Brahmaputra which is so vital for the Indian People can be used as a good tactic to pressurize the Indian Government to make concessions over Arunachal Pradesh.
At a time when the relations between the two countries is seen to be building up and heading towards cooperation from confrontation,such a water diversion project without the consent of the Indian Govt. has sent a wrong signal on the Indian Side.
It is very interesting to note the statement of J.G.Starke in context to the unilateral water diversion projects ,”So far as the injurious use of river waters ,or the diversion of and interference with the free flow of rivers is concerned ,International Law has not advanced to the stage of settled rules in either domain the utmost that can be said in this connection is that the riparian state should not make any such use of the river water under its control as may cause grievious or irreparable damage of an economic character to other riparian states”.3
This water diversion project is supposed to commence in the year 2009,the year the Three Gorges Dam project is supposed to be completed and although the Indian Govt. today is keeping the public averse from such developments it is going to create a huge problem in the future because the people residing in the Eastern region of India are directly going to be affected by such uneven developments leading to Socio-Political problems in the already affected Eastern Region of India.
The Indian response to such a project should be swift and firm .Under no circumstances should the water resources of the river Yarlung-Tsangpo(Brahmaputra River ) should be allowed to be utilized by china alone.At a time when trade engagements between the two countries are growing and the policy of confrontation is being replaced by cooperation,such a dispute over water resources should be resolved peacefully for maintaining the peace and stability in South Asia.China and India have equal rights over the water resources of the Brahmaputra river and are entitled to exploit the resources to gain maximum economic benefits.
In this context it is very interesting to note the dispute over Indus Water system in the Post-Partition period.The partition of the Indian Sub-continent immediately brought up the issue over the share of waters especially those flowing on the western side of the Indian border.This issue over the share of the Water system became a major bone of contention between the two countries and at one point it seemed that war was inevitable if the issue could not be solved.But the timely intervention of the World Bank(then the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ) led to the peaceful resoultion of the conflict and it was decided that India was entitled to reap the benefits of the eastern rivers and that Pakistan was to be entitled to enjoy the benefits of the western rivers.An agreement was signed between the Prime Minister of the two countries in the year 1960 and a commission was setup to overlook the implementation of the agreement.
The above example shows that the staunchest of the enemies will cooperate with each other when there is a possibility to gain maximum economic benefits by doing so.
There is an imperative need for both India and China to willingly cooperate and jointly explore the possibility of a mutually beneficial solution.Otherwise if unresolved this will lead to a dangerous situation in South Asia.
India should be prepared for both cooperation as well as confrontation with China.If a satisfactory solution to this problem is found then it would only lead to strengthening of ties between the two Asian Giants.But any kind of unwillingness on the Chinese side to not to share the water resources of the Brahmaputra river must be responded in a firm manner. It is necessary for the Indian Govt. to raise the issue at the Highest International Level and expose the wicked Chinese intentions.Furthermore it is imperative for India to be prepared for a conflict and respond the threat with a precise military strike if the need arises.
The response to the Chinese uncooperative behaviour should be delivered by a swift and firm military action.There should be no hesitance on the Indian side to resort to military action if china refuses to share water resources with India.
India must respond by not allowing any Chinese ship to traverse through the Indian Ocean which is very critical for china’s oil supply .The Chinese see the Indian Ocean as their critical sea lines of communication like many other countries and their ships carrying oil from the middleast and west asia traverse through the Indian Ocean.Right now the Chinese carry around 2.5 million barrels of oil daily and with the consistent growth in the Chinese economy this figure is bound to rise .
Of course such action by India is bound to start a war between the two Asian Giants and could lead to an inconceivably dangerous situation in South Asia ,but nevertheless it is necessary for India to remain firm on the issue and hold its ground.
There are many possibilities over the exact extent to which this conflict will escalate .One possibility suggests that both India and China would indulge into a dangerous war and would eventually lead to a nuclear conflict .Another theory suggests that India and China get involved in a conflict in the Indian Ocean and China instead chooses to use Pakistan as a transit route for its oil supply to mainland China through the Karakoram Highway.In such a case India should make clear to Pakistan that any cooperation on the Pakistani side would lead to India cutting –off the Eastern tributaries of the Indus Water System and therby bringing Pakistan into the picture.Such a situation can lead to a dangerous state of affairs in South Asia involving three nuclear powers confronting over water dispute.
Therefore it becomes even more important for both India and China to come up with a mutually acceptable solution over the share of water resources.
The intention of this research paper is not to conceive nuclear conflicts but to highlight the subsequent dangerous developments that could occur if the issue over the share of water resources are not resolved in a mutually beneficial manner.Taking into account India’s Policy towards China we can conclude that India’s approach towards diputes with China have been reactionary.A cautious and proactive foreign policy with respect to China is necessary.Of course that does not mean direct confrontation with China but in the world of globalisation where superpowers compete with each other for resources in the neighbourhood and elsewhere in the world , a degree of proactiveness is important to secure our National Interest.
Given such facts it is appalling to see the response that has been expressesed in New Delhi with the Govt. trying to play down the issue of Chinese military build-up on the Arunachal Pradesh border keeping the public averse from such a serious security development on the border.
The govt. can boost itself for having taken the Sino-Indian relationship to a new level with both the countries having signed trade agreements worth $ 40 billion .But the developments taking place on India’s Eastern Border is alarming and reminds us of the debacle of 1962 with china.
Chinese are famously known to use the strategy of ‘hiding a knife behind a smile’.The present on-going trade engagements with china is just a way to appease the Indian Govt. and deceive them from their original intentions.
Our past experiences have taught us to remain ever-cautious about China and not take them on face-value.But the Indian Government’s behaviour is horrendous taking into consideration the reluctance of the government about admitting this issue in the public domain.
What is even more imperative is to bring awareness among the people and social engineering of such a serious security issue among the people rather than trying to conceal it.Surely we don’t want another kargil-war like situation again.
But the million dollar question remains “Is the Govt Listening
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