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Tuesday, 2 June 2026

General Sundarji Was the Exception. That Is the Problem-THE THINKING GENERAL

 

1. Early Life & Career

  • Born into an egalitarian Tamil Brahmin family, Sundarji’s secular and non-dogmatic outlook shaped his career.

  • Joined the Army via Emergency Commission (1945), witnessed Partition violence firsthand.

  • Served in Congo with UN Peacekeeping Force, earning a reputation as a “maverick.”

  • Rose steadily, becoming the first infantry officer to command an armoured division and later 33 Corps.

2. Major Operations

  • Operation Blue Star (1984): Tactical failure; Sundarji’s frontal assault showed overconfidence and lack of patience.

  • Exercise Brasstacks (1986–87): India’s largest military exercise, validated his doctrines of manoeuvre, mobility, and firepower.

  • Operation Pawan (IPKF in Sri Lanka): Strategic miscalculation; underestimated LTTE resilience.

  • Operation Falcon (1986–87): High-altitude face-off with China at Sumdorong Chu; Sundarji’s bold forward posture and heli-lift strategy forced China to back down, boosting Indian Army confidence.

3. Strategic Contributions

  • Modernisation & Mechanisation: Advocated combined arms, mobility, and technology-driven warfare, moving away from British WWII doctrines.

  • Nuclear Deterrence: Wrote extensively on nuclear policy; influenced India’s doctrine of No First Use, Credible Minimum Deterrence, and Massive Retaliation.

  • Emphasised avoiding “obscene amassing of unusable weapons” and protecting India’s economic/social interests.

4. Leadership Style

  • Anti-status-quo, intellectually bold, supportive of subordinates, and open to new ideas.

  • Advocated professional excellence with ethical grounding; his letter to officers remains a “gold standard.”

  • Disapproved of sycophancy, encouraged honest debate and innovation.

5. Legacy

  • Sundarji’s tenure showed how much influence a military leader can wield in a democracy when backed politically.

  • His vision laid the foundation for India’s Mountain Strike Corps and modern doctrines.

  • Despite flaws (Blue Star, IPKF), his resilience, intellect, and risk-taking made him unique among Indian military leaders.

  • The problem: few Indian generals since have matched his intellectual depth or willingness to shape long-term strategic thinking.

ЁЯУМ Key Takeaway

General Sundarji was a rare “thinking general” who transformed India’s military doctrine, modernised its outlook, and shaped nuclear deterrence. His successes and failures highlight both the potential and the risks of bold military leadership. His uniqueness underscores a broader issue: India’s armed forces have lacked similarly visionary leaders since.

Industrial Policy – Not the What, But the How

 

Summary: Industrial Policy – Not the What, But the How

1. The Debate in India

  • For decades, Indian commentary has been split:

    • Dirigistes: argue reforms went too far, want state-led industrial policy back.

    • Liberalisers: warn that state direction revives licence-raj inefficiencies.

  • Chief Economic Advisor Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran reframes the debate: India never stopped industrial policy; the issue is not what policy, but how it is implemented.

2. The “Missing Middle” Problem

  • India has millions of micro firms and a few large ones, but very few mid-sized enterprises.

  • Decades of SME-friendly policies (reservations, subsidies, carve-outs) created survival, not competitiveness.

  • Nageswaran: “It is not for want of the what. It is a want of the how.”

3. Lessons from East Asia

  • Northeast Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore): aggressive industrial policy succeeded due to discipline — time-bound protections, export-performance requirements, simulated competition.

  • Southeast Asia (Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand): similar tools but failed due to permanent protection and lack of discipline.

  • India’s record resembles Southeast Asia: protection without discipline.

4. Discipline Framework

Nageswaran outlines three principles:

  1. Simulate competition where none exists (R&D quotas, benchmarks).

  2. Benchmark globally — firms must compete internationally.

  3. Time-bound protections — tariffs, subsidies, duties must be reviewed and withdrawn when ineffective.

5. India’s Second Chance

  • The window for industrial policy reopened due to deglobalisation trends (Brexit, COVID, Ukraine war, US-China trade conflict).

  • Every major economy is now pursuing industrial policy (US CHIPS Act, EU Critical Raw Materials Act, China’s ongoing state-led model).

  • India has demographic strength, macro stability, and geopolitical opportunity.

  • Current instruments: PLI scheme, cluster revival, deregulation, IndiaAI Mission, Gift City sandbox.

6. Early Grades

  • PLI Scheme: well-designed (time-bound, performance-linked). Some sectors (mobiles, semiconductors) show progress; others lag. The test is whether failures are shut down or politically entrenched.

  • Tariff Protection: danger zone — politically permanent, risks becoming “Indonesian-style” entrenchment.

  • Cluster Manufacturing: promising (e.g., Tirupur apparel cluster), but still smaller than global competitors (Dhaka). Needs export discipline to scale.

7. The Test Ahead

  • India must embed discipline into industrial policy:

    • Sunset clauses that actually expire.

    • Independent cost-benefit reviews.

    • Willingness to let firms fail if they don’t deliver.

    • Accountability for clusters to scale globally.

  • The next 20 years will decide whether India resembles Korea (success) or Indonesia (failure).

  • Nehru wanted growth too — but chose the wrong instruments. India must now choose better ones and have the courage to withdraw them when necessary.

India’s Space Problem Is launch frequency Not Engineering

 

ЁЯЪА Summary:

1. Satellite Industry vs Launch Industry

  • India’s satellite engineering sector (GalaxEye, Pixxel, Digantara, Dhruva Space) is thriving, producing world-class payloads.

  • The launch industry, however, lags behind — low flight rates and recent PSLV failures have forced Indian satellites to fly on foreign rockets (mainly SpaceX Falcon 9).

2. The Cadence Challenge

  • Sovereignty in space depends not on cheaper rockets but on launch frequency (cadence).

  • ISRO launches ~5–6 rockets annually, compared to SpaceX’s ~165 launches in 2025.

  • Low cadence weakens reliability, institutional discipline, and cost amortisation.

3. Economics of Launch

  • SpaceX rideshare: ~$5,500/kg to SSO.

  • PSLV-XL: ~$17,000/kg (3× more expensive).

  • LVM3: ~$5,000/kg but flies only 2–3 times a year, limiting cost efficiency.

  • Reusability reduces costs only when flight rates are high — India is a decade behind in reusable launch vehicles.

4. Strategic Gap

  • India has not sanctioned the 140-satellite sovereign LEO broadband constellation (₹30,000 crore, 5–7 years).

  • Without this anchor demand, launch cadence will remain low, private launch startups (Skyroot, Agnikul, EtherealX) risk collapse, and the upcoming Next Generation Launch Vehicle (Soorya/NGLV) may fail due to a hollowed supplier base.

5. Global Comparisons

  • China: Guowang + G60 Thousand Sails → ~27,000 satellites planned, 92 launches in 2025.

  • Europe: IRIS² constellation (2022).

  • USA: Starlink (accidental industrial policy).

  • India has scoped its constellation but delayed political approval.

6. Policy Choices

  • Arguments against constellation: cheaper to buy foreign launch services, avoid duplication with Starlink/OneWeb.

  • Counter-arguments:

    • Foreign launch access may be restricted by geopolitics.

    • Private launch firms cannot survive without anchor demand.

    • NGLV depends on a healthy ecosystem, which requires cadence.

7. What India Must Do

  • Approve the 140-satellite constellation within 18 months.

  • Expand launch infrastructure (new pads at Sriharikota, Kulasekarapattinam).

  • Empower IN-SPACe with purchasing authority.

  • Provide anchor contracts to private launch firms.

  • Protect NGLV from delays by ensuring steady launch demand.

ЁЯУМ Key Takeaway

India’s satellite industry is world-class, but its launch sovereignty is at risk. Without a bold political decision to create sovereign demand (via the 140-satellite constellation), India may end up with satellites designed at home but launched abroad — undermining strategic autonomy in space.

рднाрд░рддाрдЪा рд╢ेрдЕрд░ рдмाрдЬाрд░ рдШрд╕рд░рд▓ा-REASONS

 

 

  • рднाрд░рддाрдЪा рдЬाрдЧрддिрдХ рдХ्рд░рдоांрдХ рел рд╡рд░ूрди рен рд╡рд░ рдШрд╕рд░рд▓ा.

  • рдмाрдЬाрд░ рднांрдбрд╡рд▓ рдЖрддा рек.рео рдЯ्рд░िрд▓िрдпрди рдбॉрд▓рд░, рддрд░ рддैрд╡ाрди рд╡ рджрдХ्рд╖िрдг рдХोрд░िрдпा рел рдЯ्рд░िрд▓िрдпрди рдбॉрд▓рд░рдкेрдХ्рд╖ा рдЬाрд╕्рдд.

  • рдХाрд░рдгे: рдкрд░рджेрд╢ी рдЧुंрддрд╡рдгूрдХрджाрд░ांрдЪा рдоोрдаा рдкрд▓ाрдпрди, рдЖрдпрдЯी рдХ्рд╖ेрдд्рд░ाрддीрд▓ рдХрдордЬोрд░ी, рдЖрдгि рдЕрдоेрд░िрдХा–рдЗрд░ाрдг рд╕ंрдШрд░्рд╖ाрдЪा рдкрд░िрдгाрдо.

ЁЯЪА рддैрд╡ाрди рд╡ рджрдХ्рд╖िрдг рдХोрд░िрдпाрдЪी рднрд░ाрд░ी

  • рдХृрдд्рд░िрдо рдмुрдж्рдзिрдордд्рддा (AI) рд╡ рд╕ेрдоीрдХंрдбрдХ्рдЯрд░ рдЙрдж्рдпोрдЧाрдоुрд│े рдоोрдаी рд╡ाрдв.

  • рддैрд╡ाрди: TSMC рдордз्рдпे релреж% рд╡ाрдв, рдЖрддा рдмाрдЬाрд░ рднांрдбрд╡рд▓ाрдЪ्рдпा рекреж–рекрел% рд╣िрд╕्рд╕ा.

  • рджрдХ्рд╖िрдг рдХोрд░िрдпा: Samsung рд╡ SK Hynix рдпांрдиी рдоेрдорд░ी-рдЪिрдк рдоाрдЧрдгीрдоुрд│े рдмाрдЬाрд░ाрдд рд╡рд░्рдЪрд╕्рд╡ рдоिрд│рд╡рд▓े.

  • Kospi репреп% YTD, Taiex релрел% YTD рд╡ाрдв.

ЁЯУК рднाрд░рддाрддीрд▓ рдХрдордЬोрд░ी

  • Sensex: рдбिрд╕ेंрдмрд░ реирежреирел рдордз्рдпे реорем,резрелреп рдЙрдЪ्рдЪांрдХ, рдЖрддा резрей% рдШрд╕рд░рд▓ा.

  • Nifty50: резреж.реп% YTD рдШрд╕рд░рдг, рдЕрдоेрд░िрдХा–рдЗрд░ाрдг рдпुрдж्рдзाрдиंрддрд░ рем.рен% рдЦाрд▓ी.

  • рдЖрдпрдЯी рдХ्рд╖ेрдд्рд░: TCS (−реирек%), Infosys (−реиреи%), HCL (−реирей%), Wipro (−реирез%).

  • FPIs: реирежреирем рдордз्рдпे рдЖрддाрдкрд░्рдпंрдд ₹реи.рей рд▓ाрдЦ рдХोрдЯींрдЪी рд╡िрдХ्рд░ी.

  • MSCI EM рдиिрд░्рджेрд╢ांрдХाрдд рднाрд░рддाрдЪा рд╣िрд╕्рд╕ा резреп% рд╡рд░ूрди резреи% рдЭाрд▓ा.

ЁЯМН рдмाрд╣्рдп рджрдмाрд╡

  • рдЕрдоेрд░िрдХा–рдЗрд░ाрдг рд╕ंрдШрд░्рд╖ाрдоुрд│े рдЧुंрддрд╡рдгूрдХрджाрд░ рд╕ुрд░рдХ्рд╖िрдд рдоाрд▓рдордд्рддेрдХрдбे рд╡рд│рд▓े.

  • рдХрдЪ्рдЪ्рдпा рддेрд▓ाрдЪ्рдпा рдХिंрдорддी рд╡ाрдврд▓्рдпाрдиे рдкрд░рдХीрдп рдЪрд▓рди рд╕ाрда्рдпाрд╡рд░ рддाрдг.

  • рд░ुрдкрдпा рдШрд╕рд░рд▓ा: рез USD = ₹репрел рдкेрдХ्рд╖ा рдЬाрд╕्рдд.

  • рдЕрдоेрд░िрдХेрдЪे рд╢ुрд▓्рдХ: реирежреирел рдордз्рдпे релреж% рд╢ुрд▓्рдХ, рдиंрддрд░ резрео% рдкрд░्рдпंрдд рдХрдоी.

ЁЯФо рдкुрдвीрд▓ рджिрд╢ा

  • рдкुрдирд░ुрдЬ्рдЬीрд╡рдиाрд╕ाрдаी рдЖрд╡рд╢्рдпрдХ:

    • рдЕрдоेрд░िрдХा–рдЗрд░ाрдг рд╕ंрдШрд░्рд╖ाрдЪा рд╢ेрд╡рдЯ

    • рдХрдЪ्рдЪ्рдпा рддेрд▓ाрдЪ्рдпा рдХिंрдорддी $реорел/barrel рдкрд░्рдпंрдд рдЦाрд▓ी рдпेрдгे

    • рдХॉрд░्рдкोрд░ेрдЯ рдирдлा рд╡ाрдв (CY25 рдордз्рдпे резрей%, CY26 рдордз्рдпे резрем% рдЕрдкेрдХ्рд╖िрдд).

  • рднाрд░рддाрдЪी рдоूрд▓рднूрдд рддाрдХрдж рдХाрдпрдо:

    • GDP рд╡ाрдв рен% рдкेрдХ्рд╖ा рдЬाрд╕्рдд

    • рдорд╣ाрдЧाрдИ рдлрдХ्рдд реи.рез% (рджрд╢рдХाрддीрд▓ рдиीрдЪांрдХी)

    • рд▓ोрдХрд╕ंрдЦ्рдпा рд▓ाрдн, рдзोрд░рдгाрдд्рдордХ рдЧुंрддрд╡рдгूрдХ, рдмрдЪрддीрдЪे рд╡िрдд्рддीрдпीрдХрд░рдг.

  • рддрдЬ्рдЬ्рдЮांрдЪे рдордд: рддैрд╡ाрди рд╡ рдХोрд░िрдпाрдЪी рд╡ाрдв рдХाрд╣ी рдХंрдкрди्рдпांрд╡рд░рдЪ рдЕрд╡рд▓ंрдмूрди, рдд्рдпाрдоुрд│े рдЯिрдХाрдКрдкрдгाрдмрдж्рджрд▓ рд╢ंрдХा.

рдеोрдбрдХ्рдпाрдд: рддैрд╡ाрди рд╡ рджрдХ्рд╖िрдг рдХोрд░िрдпा рдпांрдиी AI рд╕ेрдоीрдХंрдбрдХ्рдЯрд░ рдЙрдж्рдпोрдЧाрдоुрд│े рдЭрдкाрдЯ्рдпाрдиे рд╡ाрдв рдХेрд▓ी, рддрд░ рднाрд░рддाрд▓ा рдкрд░рджेрд╢ी рдЧुंрддрд╡рдгूрдХрджाрд░ांрдЪा рдкрд▓ाрдпрди, рдЖрдпрдЯी рдХ्рд╖ेрдд्рд░ाрддीрд▓ рдШрд╕рд░рдг, рдЖрдгि рднू-рд░ाрдЬрдХीрдп рд╕ंрдХрдЯाрдоुрд│े рдлрдЯрдХा рдмрд╕рд▓ा. рджीрд░्рдШрдХाрд▓ीрди рджृрд╖्рдЯीрдиे рднाрд░рддाрдЪी рдкाрдпाрднूрдд рддाрдХрдж рдордЬрдмूрдд рдЖрд╣े, рдкрдг рдЕрд▓्рдкрдХाрд▓ीрди рд╕ुрдзाрд░рдгा рдЬाрдЧрддिрдХ рд╕्рдеैрд░्рдп рд╡ рдКрд░्рдЬा рдХिंрдорддींрд╡рд░ рдЕрд╡рд▓ंрдмूрди рдЖрд╣े.

REASONS-India’s Stock Market Drop

 


  • India slipped from 5th to 7th largest stock market globally in just over a week.

  • Market capitalization fell to $4.8 trillion, overtaken by Taiwan ($5 trillion+) and South Korea ($5 trillion).

  • The decline is linked to foreign capital exodus, weak IT sector performance, and external shocks like the US–Iran conflict.

ЁЯЪА Why Taiwan & South Korea Surged

  • AI-driven semiconductor boom fueled rallies.

  • Taiwan: TSMC rallied 50%, now accounts for 40–45% of Taiwan’s market cap.

  • South Korea: Samsung & SK Hynix benefited from AI memory-chip demand, making up 50% of Korea’s market cap.

  • Both markets saw record-breaking gains: Kospi up 99% YTD, Taiex up 55% YTD.

ЁЯУК India’s Market Weakness

  • Sensex: Hit lifetime high of 86,159 in Dec 2025, now down 13%.

  • Nifty50: Down 10.9% YTD, 6.7% since US–Iran war began.

  • IT sector: TCS (−24%), Infosys (−22%), HCL (−23%), Wipro (−21%).

  • Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs): Net sellers almost every month in 2026, withdrawing ₹2.3 lakh crore so far.

  • India’s weight in MSCI EM index fell from 19% to 12%.

ЁЯМН External Pressures

  • US–Iran conflict triggered global risk aversion.

  • Rising crude oil prices strained forex reserves.

  • Rupee depreciation: Worst-performing Asian currency, now over ₹95 per USD.

  • Tariffs: US imposed 50% tariffs in 2025 (later reduced to 18%), causing investor flight.

ЁЯФо Outlook

  • Analysts say India’s recovery depends on:

    • Resolution of US–Iran conflict

    • Crude oil prices falling to ~$85/barrel

    • Earnings growth revival (expected 13% in CY25, 16% in CY26)

  • India’s fundamentals remain strong:

    • GDP growth above 7%

    • Inflation at 2.1% (lowest in decades)

    • Structural drivers: demographic dividend, policy-driven capex, financialization of savings.

  • Experts caution that Taiwan & Korea’s rallies are concentrated in a few firms, raising sustainability concerns.

In short: Taiwan and South Korea surged ahead of India due to the AI semiconductor boom, while India faced foreign capital outflows, IT sector weakness, and geopolitical shocks. Long-term fundamentals for India remain intact, but near-term recovery hinges on global stability and energy prices.

The Anti-Bucket List: The Freedom of Not Wanting Everything Author : Dr Prasad Rajhans ЁЯжв

 


A few years ago, success was easier to define.

Study well. Get a good job. Build a family. Live a respectable life.

Today, success appears to have expanded in hundreds of directions.

Your friends are running marathons. Someone has completed an Ironman. A colleague is posting photographs from the Himalayas. Another is skydiving. Someone else is visiting remote temples across the world. One friend has become a wildlife photographer. Another has learned guitar at 45. Yet another is practicing yoga in Bali.

Open social media for ten minutes, and it can feel as if everyone is living extraordinary lives.

And slowly, without realizing it, a thought enters the mind:

Am I missing out?

Maybe I should travel more.
Maybe I should trek.
Maybe I should run a marathon.
Maybe I should learn music.
Maybe I should visit more countries.
Maybe I should do something remarkable.

The list keeps growing.

That is the modern bucket list.

But somewhere in the middle of all this comparison, another question quietly emerges:

Who decided these things should be on my list in the first place?

I once heard a friend say:

“Why would I wake up at 4 a.m. just to run after a tiger in the jungle?”
For him, wildlife safaris held no attraction.

For someone else, watching a tiger in the wild might be a lifelong dream.

Neither person is wrong.

That is perhaps one of the most important truths we forget:

Human beings are not meant to enjoy the same things.

Some people love adventure.
Some enjoy meditation.
Some prefer mountain expeditions.
Others enjoy sitting silently near the sea.

Some people travel to twenty countries.

Others may spend a week in one town, understanding the people, culture, food, and silence.

Some may genuinely be happiest at home.

And happiness experienced quietly is no less valuable than happiness displayed publicly.

As children, many of us belonged to generations where joy was simpler.

Summer holidays often meant staying with relatives.

Watching a movie on television could feel special.

Going out for ice cream was an event worth remembering.

Small pleasures carried excitement because they were rare.

Today, we have abundance.

Unlimited travel options.
Unlimited entertainment.
Unlimited information.
Unlimited experiences.

Ironically, unlimited choices often create unlimited pressure.

Psychologists call part of this choice overload—when too many possibilities increase anxiety rather than satisfaction.

Because once everything becomes possible, people begin feeling responsible for experiencing everything.

But no human being can do everything.

No one can visit every country.

Learn every skill.
Play every sport.
Attend every event.
See every wonder.
Live every life.

Perhaps this is where a new idea becomes useful:

The Anti-Bucket List

An anti-bucket list is not pessimism.

It is not laziness.
It is not a lack of ambition.
It is something far more liberating.

An anti-bucket list is a conscious decision about the things you do not need in order to feel fulfilled.

The experiences you do not wish to chase.

The expectations you choose not to inherit.

The comparisons you decide to stop making.

Maybe your anti-bucket list says:

• I do not need to run a marathon.
• I do not need to visit fifty countries.
• I do not need to learn every hobby.
• I do not need public proof that I am living well.
• I do not need to convert every experience into content.

And surprisingly, saying “I don’t need this” can sometimes bring more peace than saying “I must achieve this.”

There is another quiet consequence of modern life.

People sometimes become so busy photographing moments that they stop living them.

A beautiful landscape is viewed through a mobile screen.

A sunset becomes content.
A journey becomes evidence.
A holiday becomes documentation.

And somewhere in between, the actual experience disappears.

Perhaps some of the most meaningful moments in life are those never uploaded, never announced, and never validated by others.

Only lived.
Only felt.
Only remembered.

Maybe the purpose of an anti-bucket list is simple:

Not to reduce life.

But to reduce unnecessary pressure.

To create room for authenticity.

To stop living every possible life—and start living your own.

Because at the end of the day, fulfillment may not come from checking the most boxes.

INDIA IS REPLACING CHINESE CC TV CAMARAS PART 2

 

This Dependency Didn’t Happen by Accident

The Engineering Phase Begins

The penetration of Chinese surveillance and IoT hardware into India—and globally—was not just free-market competition. It was engineered. And the engineering has entered a new phase.

China’s 2026–2028 IoT Action Plan

In mid-March 2026, nine central Chinese ministries jointly released a new action plan for China’s IoT industry covering 2026–2028. It builds on directives dating back to 2009, when Beijing designated IoT as a “strategic emerging industry” and a “commanding heights” driver of industrial competition.

From Gadgets to Cyber-Physical Control

This plan defines IoT not as consumer tech, but as a total cyber-physical environment—aimed at “ubiquitous intelligent connections among people, machines, and things,” linking the digital and physical worlds.

Five Layers of Control

The industry is structured across five layers:

  1. Sensing (physical devices like cameras and sensors)
  2. Networks (communications infrastructure)
  3. Platforms (software aggregating, storing, processing data)
  4. Applications (services built on top of everything)
  5. Security (access, authentication, and trust frameworks)

Control the layers, and you control what runs on them.

Standards as the Strategic Weapon

The most consequential element is standards. The plan calls for improving the IoT standards system and mapping the “core industrial chain.” Standards determine discovery, authentication, data movement, and interoperability. If the country writing the rules also controls the largest base of connected devices, the rest of the world must comply.

Alignment With China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

Read alongside China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (also released in March 2026), the vision becomes vertically integrated: pooled computing power, satellite internet for coverage beyond terrestrial networks, telecom modernization from 5G through 6G, and data systems governing authentication and access.

A Vertically Integrated Stack

Together, the IoT action plan and five-year plan imply a cyber-physical system where China supplies multiple layers—from endpoints and platforms to compute, connectivity, and standards.

Dependency Becomes Interoperability

This is what much commentary misses: it’s not merely cheap devices being sold. It is architecture being defined—so that even “local replacements” may still operate within rules written elsewhere.

Every Layer Deepens the Attack Surface

Each layer increases interoperability, remote manageability, and embedding into city, factory, power, and transport systems—expanding the surface area for attack even without increasing the number of devices.


The “Secure and Controllable” Meaning

“Backdoors” as a Recognized Risk

Chinese security discussions acknowledge that connected products can include backdoors enabling remote control or covert data collection.

Control Over the System—not Just the Equipment

When leaders emphasize “secure and controllable” digital infrastructure, “controllable” functions as political-technical leverage: shaping who benefits, who can access systems, and what happens when relationships turn adversarial.


How India Is Trying to Fix It

STQC: The Most Immediate Lever

While Delhi removes Hikvision cameras, the policy framework enabling this shift has been building. The clearest tool is STQC certification.

The Essential Requirements (April 2024)

In April 2024, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology introduced Essential Requirements for CCTV cameras and video surveillance systems. Internet-connected cameras sold or imported in India must be tested and certified at accredited STQC labs before entering the market. Manufacturers must declare the origin of critical components—especially SoCs and firmware—and submit both hardware and software for vulnerability testing.

Compliance Deadline: 1 April 2026

The industry had two years to comply. That window closed on 1 April 2026.

Who Gets Denied Certification

STQC is significant not only for testing—it also restricts access. As described in the text, Indian authorities refused to certify products from Hikvision, Dahua, and TP-Link, and also devices using Chinese-origin chipsets or firmware. Without STQC clearance, those products cannot legally be sold.

Certification Numbers and Market Control

As of early 2026, 507 camera models had been certified. Indian brands reportedly control over 80% of the domestic CCTV market. Companies like CP Plus, Sparsh, Prama, Matrix, and Qubo have shifted supply chains toward Taiwanese chipsets and locally developed firmware, while global players like Bosch and Honeywell focus on premium segments.

Delhi’s Replacement Plan

Delhi’s PWD announced an initial rollout of 50,000 cameras, replacing Chinese units with “secure and trusted systems,” using a phased approach to avoid disrupting live surveillance coverage.

But the Problem Is National

Delhi is the beginning. Hikvision and Dahua hardware remains embedded across metro systems and central government buildings, and eventually each installation would need similar treatment.


Can CP Plus Rebuild Its Independence?

CP Plus’ Three Moves

With Dahua distribution effectively ended, CP Plus is investing in three areas:

  • Developing indigenous Indian-IP SoCs via collaboration with L&T Semiconductor Technologies
  • Working with VVDN Technologies for embedded systems and IoT device design/manufacturing
  • Establishing an R&D center in Noida (with 86 engineers as of March 2025)

The Speed Challenge

The direction is correct, but the pace is the question. Designing production-grade vision-processing SoCs that compete with a decade of refinement is a multi-year effort—measured in years, not quarters.


India’s Security Layers Beyond CCTV

Telecom: Trusted Vendors and Managed Risk

India blocked Huawei and ZTE from 5G and new telecom infrastructure contracts years ago through security directives beginning December 2020 and tightening over time. The framework requires operators to procure equipment only from “trusted sources” approved by the National Cyber Security Coordinator. Huawei and ZTE were excluded from 5G trials in 2021.

Telecom Act 2023 and Tightening Enforcement

The Telecommunications Act 2023 replaced the Indian Telegraph Act 1885 and established a modern telecom security framework. Since then, oversight has expanded: formal cybersecurity policies, always-on monitoring, and appointment of senior security officers.

Time-Bound Breach Reporting

Breach reporting has become more time-bound, aligning with CERT-In’s six-hour disclosure expectations. The government also reserves audit and intervention rights when vulnerabilities are discovered.

IoT Certification Schemes and Code of Practice

For consumer IoT devices more broadly, India introduced the Code of Practice for Securing Consumer IoT Devices and the IoT System Certification Scheme under ITSAR. These may not yet match STQC’s enforcement readiness, but they extend security-by-design and certification direction beyond CCTV.

Patchwork Instead of One Big Law

Rather than a single sweeping law like the EU’s Cyber Resilience Act, India is assembling a layered patchwork—trusted telecom vendors, national security directives, STQC for surveillance devices, telecom cyber rules for detection and response, and IoT certification schemes for a wider set of connected products.


The Contest Still Isn’t Finished

STQC Fixes Endpoints, Not the Stack

STQC addresses endpoints (cameras and terminals) but not the deeper layers underneath.

What China Covers—and India Still Doesn’t

Beijing’s model covers sensing, networks, platforms, applications, security, and standards. India is contesting sensing and beginning guardrails on networks, but the platform and standards layers remain largely open.

Replacing Devices May Not Replace the Rules

If standards and protocols remain defined elsewhere, swapping a camera or base station won’t fully fix the underlying dependency—because systems will still operate within externally set interoperability rules.

Still, Every Replacement Creates Leverage

Even incomplete progress matters. Each removal forces integrators to compete with non-Chinese components, builds a procurement pipeline, and creates market momentum toward alternatives.

The Risk of Declaring “Finish Line” Too Soon

Replacing a camera brand isn’t the same as replacing the architecture it was designed to plug into. The ceiling camera was a symptom. The disease is dependency on an ecosystem built to keep that dependency invisible until it is too late.

India Has Begun the Surgery

The question is whether the surgery will go deep enough to reach the architecture—not just the hardware.

India Is Replacing Chinese Cameras—but That’s Only the Start PART 1

 


A Quiet Access Problem Hidden in Plain Sight

Poorly secured, internet-exposed cameras running outdated firmware can provide the kind of quiet, persistent access a state-backed actor needs for long-duration operations—especially inside critical infrastructure.

A Hikvision Camera Inside a Defense Drone Program

A Chinese-made Hikvision CCTV unit was found monitoring the control station of an indigenous Indian military drone program.

The Real Issue Is Systemic Dependence

The camera was the symptom. The disease was an ecosystem—engineered so dependency remains invisible until it is too late to reverse.

What DRDO Showed in June 2023

In June 2023, DRDO’s official X account posted photographs from the 200th flight demonstration of the indigenous TAPAS medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle at the Aeronautical Test Range in Karnataka’s Chitradurga.

The Ground Control Station: The Nerve Center

The images showed the ground control station—the nerve center where a tri-services team was introduced to the UAV’s capabilities for the first time. Screens displayed flight telemetry and surveillance feeds, with equipment racks lining the walls. Senior officers in flight suits gathered around the consoles.

A Camera Watching the Screens

Mounted on the ceiling, aimed directly at those displays, was a Hikvision CCTV camera.

Why Hikvision Matters

Hikvision is the world’s largest video surveillance equipment manufacturer. It has partial Chinese state ownership through the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), one of China’s major defense electronics conglomerates.

What the Camera Could—and Couldn’t—Do

The camera was likely air-gapped, operating on a closed-circuit local recording system with no internet or external network connection. In that setup, it cannot “phone home” or transmit data to a remote server.

But Risk Doesn’t Depend on Internet Connectivity

Still, the vulnerability in Hikvision products is not speculative.

The 2017 CISA Warning

In May 2017—six years before the photograph—CISA issued an advisory about an improper authentication vulnerability affecting several Hikvision camera series.

A Flaw That Could Grant Full Control

Rated 9.8/10 for severity, the flaw could let a remote attacker bypass authentication entirely, escalate privileges, and gain full administrative control—enabling live video viewing, configuration access, credential extraction, and data downloads.

Exploitation Confirmed Years Later

In March 2026, CISA added this issue to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, confirming active exploitation. Public offensive tooling has been documented using the weakness to retrieve configurations, credentials, and video snapshots.

A Compromised Camera Can Enable Lateral Movement

A compromised camera can become a launching pad into the broader network where it sits—turning “local surveillance” into a pathway to deeper compromise.

“Launching Pad” Isn’t Just a Phrase

It is literal in real-world campaigns.

Recorded Future’s Account of TAG-38

In April 2022, Recorded Future’s Insikt Group published a threat analysis describing a campaign by a likely Chinese state-sponsored actor it designated TAG-38. The group had targeted Indian power grid infrastructure since at least September 2021, including at least seven State Load Despatch Centres (SLDCs) in North India near the India–China border in Ladakh.

Why SLDCs Are High-Value Targets

SLDCs manage real-time electricity dispatch and grid control. They maintain access to SCADA systems. These are not “soft” targets; they are operational nerve centers of India’s power grid.

Command-and-Control Through Hijacked Cameras

What TAG-38 used for command-and-control was striking: compromised internet-facing DVR and IP camera devices. Many of these cameras were geolocated primarily in Taiwan and South Korea—not India—and were used as relay nodes for ShadowPad malware deployed inside victim networks.

Making Malicious Traffic Look Normal

After separate breaches placed ShadowPad inside Indian networks, the malware needed covert communication with its operators. Configured to talk to hijacked cameras, its traffic could resemble benign connections to random surveillance devices in Seoul or Taipei—rather than communications with a Chinese intelligence operation.

The Pattern Repeats

Poorly secured, internet-exposed cameras running outdated firmware provided the quiet persistence such operations require.

The Broader Implication: Cameras as Infrastructure

Even if not all cameras in those cases were Chinese-made, the core problem remains the same: weakly authenticated, outdated internet-connected surveillance hardware—exactly the class dominated globally by Chinese CCTV manufacturers like Hikvision and Dahua.

The Risk Scales With Concentration

The vulnerability is architectural: any insecure camera can be turned into attacker infrastructure. But when the world’s largest vendors are state-linked and have a decade-long trail of known issues, the overall risk compounds.


What’s Already Inside the Walls

Delhi’s Camera Footprint

Delhi alone has about 2.74 lakh CCTV cameras installed by the Public Works Department since 2020. Of those, about 1.4 lakh cameras installed between 2020 and 2022 were sourced from Hikvision—and the account indicates every unit was Hikvision.

More Cameras Added Later

Another 1.34 lakh were added between 2025 and 2026, though the government states these are now being procured from compliant sources.

A Reference Point: Israel’s Tehran Camera Hacking

The risk is easier to understand by looking at what has happened elsewhere. During the shadow conflict with Iran, Israel reportedly hacked Tehran’s traffic camera network over several years—at one point accessing feeds across the city to track the movements of senior leadership, including Ali Khamenei. The footage was used to build “pattern of life” profiles—routes, routines, and security behaviors—turning a civilian camera grid into a powerful intelligence layer.

Delhi’s Replacements, But Not the End

Hikvision units in Delhi are reportedly being removed. But Delhi may have been the most visible case—not the only one.

Chinese Surveillance Hardware Embedded Nationwide

Hikvision and Dahua surveillance systems are embedded across India’s critical infrastructure: railway stations, airports, power plants, and port terminals. For years, these two vendors dominated the market with cheap, feature-rich equipment available at scale—while scrutiny on where data went, and what firmware did once online, was limited.

Cameras Are No Longer Just Cameras

A modern CCTV system is a networked computing device. It runs firmware, processes video through onboard SoCs, connects to cloud platforms for storage and remote access, and often runs AI analytics like facial recognition, motion detection, and number-plate reading.

“A Computer With a Lens”

Functionally, it’s a computer with a lens. Like any computer, it is only as trustworthy as its code and chip design.


The Supply-Chain Contradiction

CP Plus as the Market Leader

India’s CCTV market is led by CP Plus, the flagship brand of Aditya Infotech, with roughly 21% market share. When the company went public in July 2025—raising Rs 1,300 crore—it leaned on “Make in India” and “national security,” citing the STQC certification framework as a structural tailwind.

The Prospectus Tells Another Story

But the filings show a complicated dependence: in FY25, around 24.7% of Aditya Infotech’s revenue (roughly Rs 770 crore) came from products supplied by Dahua, the world’s second-largest surveillance equipment maker. Historically, Aditya Infotech was Dahua’s exclusive distributor in India.

A Security Brand With Chinese Revenue

In effect, a company positioning itself as a pillar of indigenous security was deriving about a quarter of its sales from a Chinese supplier.

Gradual Reduction, Not Immediate Exit

That dependence declined over time—34% in FY22, 32% in FY23, 28% in FY24, and 25% in FY25—ending in practice as STQC rules took effect.

Growth Supported by Chinese Supply

The trajectory suggests something important: the leading Indian brand rose partly because it could scale with Chinese hardware, while building distribution and recall.

Materials Still Flow Through a China-Adjacent Chain

Supply-chain dependence also matters. A significant share of inputs comes via AIL Dixon (a joint venture involving Dixon Technologies and Aditya Infotech), which accounts for about 52% of materials consumed, with roughly 85% imported. Given China’s dominance in surveillance components and electronics manufacturing, a meaningful portion of inputs may come from Chinese or China-linked suppliers.


This Dependency Didn’t Happen by Accident

The Engineering Phase Begins

The penetration of Chinese surveillance and IoT hardware into India—and globally—was not just free-market competition. It was engineered. And the engineering has entered a new phase.

China’s 2026–2028 IoT Action Plan

In mid-March 2026, nine central Chinese ministries jointly released a new action plan for China’s IoT industry covering 2026–2028. It builds on directives dating back to 2009, when Beijing designated IoT as a “strategic emerging industry” and a “commanding heights” driver of industrial competition.

From Gadgets to Cyber-Physical Control

This plan defines IoT not as consumer tech, but as a total cyber-physical environment—aimed at “ubiquitous intelligent connections among people, machines, and things,” linking the digital and physical worlds.