The announcement that the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) has completed 12 consecutive months without a single operational fatality is a significant development in India's internal security environment.

 What makes this achievement particularly noteworthy is not merely the absence of deaths. It is the claim that this has been achieved while the force continues to operate in multiple sensitive theatres, confront armed adversaries and undertake demanding counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism and law-and-order responsibilities.

The real significance lies in what this suggests about the evolution of India's paramilitary operational capabilities: better protection of personnel, improved intelligence, modern equipment, effective leadership, operational planning and a much stronger casualty-management system.

However, it is important to distinguish between zero operational fatalities and zero casualties. The announcement establishes the former; it does not establish that no CRPF personnel were injured or that the force experienced no operational incidents.

1. Where is the CRPF deployed? Understanding its operational commitments

The CRPF is India's largest Central Armed Police Force (CAPF), with approximately 3.25 lakh personnel. It has a nationwide presence and performs a much wider range of duties than simply fighting insurgents.

According to the CRPF's official organisational information, its structure includes 201 General Duty Battalions, 10 CoBRA Battalions, 16 Rapid Action Force Battalions, six Mahila Battalions and specialised VIP security units, among others.

Central Reserve Police Force+1

The following are its principal operational areas.

A. Jammu and Kashmir – Counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency

The CRPF has a major presence in Jammu and Kashmir, performing:

• Counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations.
• Road Opening Parties (ROP) and area domination.
• Protection of important installations and vulnerable locations.
• Security during the Amarnath Yatra and other major events.
• Assistance to the civil administration and J&K Police.
• Election security and maintenance of law and order.

An important development is the proposed expansion of CRPF responsibilities in the Jammu region. In September 2026, a plan was reported to deploy approximately 2,100 CRPF personnel in 21 camps in Udhampur and Kathua, supported by specialised CoBRA units.

The objective is to take over selected routine counter-terrorism responsibilities from the Army, allowing Army infantry units to concentrate more on border security along the Line of Control and International Border.

Strategic significance: The CRPF is increasingly being used to maintain the internal security grid, while the Army can concentrate on external threats and border defence. This requires higher levels of independent operational capability from the CRPF.

B. Manipur – Managing ethnic violence and armed groups

Manipur has become a particularly challenging operational theatre following the ethnic violence that began in May 2023.

CRPF responsibilities include:

• Maintaining security in sensitive areas.
• Preventing clashes between armed groups and communities.
• Protecting civilians and vulnerable settlements.
• Securing roads, installations and important locations.
• Supporting state police and other security forces.
• Handling armed confrontations and violent disturbances.

Manipur deserves particular attention because this is not a conventional counter-insurgency environment. Ethnic divisions, armed civilian groups, weapons proliferation, difficult terrain and competing community interests make security operations complicated.

A force must exercise restraint while retaining the ability to respond decisively to armed threats.

Strategic significance: Maintaining peace in Manipur requires a combination of intelligence, disciplined use of force, community engagement and effective coordination with other security agencies.

C. Left-Wing Extremism – Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and adjoining regions

For decades, the Maoist insurgency was among the most dangerous operational commitments of the CRPF.

Its CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action) units specialise in jungle warfare, ambush prevention, tracking insurgents and operations in difficult terrain.

The principal areas of activity included:

• Bastar and adjoining areas of Chhattisgarh.
• Jharkhand.
• Odisha.
• Parts of Maharashtra, particularly Gadchiroli.
• Other previously Maoist-affected regions.

An important change occurred in 2026. The Government announced that the country had achieved its target of eliminating the major Left-Wing Extremism threat by 31 March 2026.

This does not mean that every Maoist remnant, weapon cache, support network or security risk has disappeared. The threat has been substantially weakened, but continued intelligence and area-security measures remain necessary.

The CRPF has also begun repositioning some personnel from the LWE theatre towards Jammu and Kashmir.

India News+2

Strategic significance: This is a major transition in India's internal security priorities—from a prolonged large-scale Maoist insurgency towards residual threat management and redeployment against emerging security challenges.

D. Northeast India – Counter-insurgency and internal security

Apart from Manipur, CRPF personnel perform security duties in several northeastern states, including Assam, Nagaland, Tripura and other sensitive areas.

Their responsibilities include:

• Counter-insurgency assistance.
• Security of government establishments.
• Protection of vulnerable areas.
• Election-related security.
• Assistance to state police.
• Maintenance of public order.

The threat varies considerably from state to state. It would be incorrect to assume that every northeastern deployment is engaged in active counter-insurgency.

E. Other nationwide responsibilities

The CRPF also undertakes several important duties which do not necessarily involve direct combat:

Responsibility	Operational role
Internal security	Maintaining law and order
Election security	Deployment in sensitive constituencies
Riot control	Rapid Action Force (RAF)
VIP security	Protection of designated dignitaries
Shrine security	Ayodhya, Varanasi, Mathura and Vaishno Devi
Vital installations	Protection of important government facilities
Disaster response	Rescue and relief operations

These responsibilities are part of the CRPF's official mandate.

Central Reserve Police Force+1

An important clarification: It is not correct to say that the entire CRPF is deployed in combat zones. Its approximately 3.25 lakh personnel are spread across operational theatres, static security duties, training establishments, administrative units and reserve formations. What makes this achievement noteworthy is that the force has maintained a zero-operational-fatality record despite having substantial commitments in high-risk areas.

2. Why is zero operational fatality for 12 months so significant?

Historic operational milestone

The figures reported are particularly revealing:

Indicator	Reported position
Last operational fatality	30 October 2025
Subsequent period	12 consecutive months
Previous comparable period	Ended January 1979
Personnel strength	Approximately 3.25 lakh
Operational deaths in 2025 up to October 30	9
Total personnel lost in line of duty since inception	Approximately 2,270

Sources: CRPF DG's announcement and contemporary reporting.

India Today+2

To appreciate the achievement, one must remember the force's history.

• In 2010, 75 CRPF personnel were killed in a devastating Maoist attack in Dantewada, Chhattisgarh.
• In February 2019, 40 CRPF personnel were killed in the Pulwama terrorist attack.
• In October 2025, two CRPF personnel were killed in a Maoist-related blast in Jharkhand.

These incidents illustrate the nature of the threats the force has faced.

India News+1

The achievement is therefore not simply a statistical milestone. It represents a significant period during which personnel returned from operational duties without an operational death being recorded.

3. What has changed? Six factors behind the achievement

In my assessment, the most important aspect of the announcement is the change in the CRPF's operational philosophy. It appears that the force is moving from an approach centred primarily on conducting operations to one that gives equal importance to preventing casualties.

A. Modern equipment and technological superiority

The CRPF leadership specifically acknowledges the contribution of contemporary hardware.

Some important capabilities relevant to these operations include:

• Better bullet-resistant jackets and helmets.
• Modern assault weapons and night-vision equipment.
• Thermal imaging devices and surveillance systems.
• Drones for reconnaissance and monitoring suspicious movement.
• Mine and IED detection equipment.
• Improved communications and command-and-control systems.
• Protected mobility and better casualty evacuation facilities.

These capabilities can reduce exposure to ambushes, improve situational awareness and provide commanders with better information before committing troops.

The lesson is particularly important in Maoist-affected forests and the mountainous areas of Jammu and Kashmir.

B. Improved training and operational preparedness

Equipment alone cannot prevent casualties. The ability to use it effectively is equally important.

CRPF personnel require specialised training in:

1. Counter-ambush drills.
2. IED and mine awareness.
3. Jungle and mountain warfare.
4. Small-team operations.
5. Immediate action and casualty evacuation drills.
6. Intelligence-based operations.
7. Coordination with Army, state police and intelligence agencies.

The CoBRA experience in jungle warfare is particularly relevant.

There is also an important difference between training personnel to fight and training them to survive. Modern security forces must give equal importance to both.

Brazil Election: How Big Tech Can Shape What Voters See | Lula vs Bolsonaro (The Palki Sharma Show)

 

Key Takeaway

The video argues that the 2022 Brazilian presidential election was not only a contest between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Jair Bolsonaro (the transcript contains some name inaccuracies), but also a demonstration of how powerful technology platforms can influence political discourse and voter exposure to information.

Main Points

1. Lula Wins the Election

• Brazil elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as President after a closely contested runoff election against incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
• However, the report suggests that the real story extends beyond the election result itself.

2. Social Media Became the Main Political Battleground

• Political campaigning increasingly takes place on digital platforms rather than through traditional media.
• Social media platforms determine:
• What content is promoted,
• What content is restricted,
• Which messages reach large audiences.

3. Lula's Massive WhatsApp Campaign

• Lula's team created a large WhatsApp network known as "Lula's Army."
• The network reportedly reached over 10 million followers.
• Supporters received pre-prepared:
• Messages,
• Videos,
• Hashtags,
• Campaign material for further sharing.
• The strategy relied on ordinary users spreading political content across social networks.

4. Allegations Against Meta

• Lula's campaign accused Meta (owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp) of:
• Restricting the reach of Lula-related content,
• Providing an indirect advantage to Bolsonaro.
• Additional allegations claimed that Meta's AI tools treated content relating to the two candidates differently.
• Meta denied all allegations of political bias.

5. Concern Over Foreign Influence

• The report notes Bolsonaro's close political relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump.
• It raises concerns that global technology companies can transmit political influence across national borders.
• While no evidence of coordinated foreign election interference is presented, the report highlights the possibility of international influence through digital platforms.

6. Brazilian Electoral Authorities Intervened

• Brazil's electoral court sought explanations from:
• Meta,
• X (formerly Twitter).
• Authorities demanded transparency regarding:
• Content moderation,
• Political recommendations,
• Equal treatment of candidates.
• Companies faced substantial financial penalties for non-compliance.

7. The Real Power Lies in Algorithms

The report emphasizes that:

• Politicians can create speeches, videos and campaigns.
• Supporters can share content widely.
• Yet the ultimate reach of a message often depends on platform algorithms.

Algorithms can:

• Amplify certain messages,
• Reduce the visibility of others,
• Shape public debate without voters being fully aware of it.

8. Challenge for Democracies

The central question raised is:

If a handful of global technology companies decide what information citizens see, how can democratic elections remain truly free, transparent and fair?

The report argues that greater accountability and oversight of digital platforms may be necessary to protect electoral integrity.

 

Conclusion

The video presents the Brazilian election as a case study of the growing influence of Big Tech in democratic processes. While elections are formally decided by voters, the report contends that platforms such as WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, and X now play a significant role in determining which political messages voters encounter. This raises important questions about transparency, algorithmic power, accountability, and the future of democratic elections worldwide.

 

ENEMY ON THE MOBILE: THE NEED TO STOP AND COUNTER THE PROPAGANDA WAR ON SOCIAL MEDIA Part 2

 

Targeting National Institutions

Election Commission: Undermining faith in democratic processes

Free and fair elections are the foundation of Indian democracy. Any sustained campaign portraying the Election Commission of India as systematically biased or incapable of conducting credible elections can weaken public confidence in the democratic process.

Potential methods include:

• Circulating fabricated claims of electronic voting machine manipulation without credible evidence.
• Using old videos of polling irregularities and presenting them as current incidents.
• Misrepresenting election-related court proceedings and official announcements.
• Creating fake documents alleging manipulation of electoral rolls.
• Coordinating social media campaigns to portray every unfavourable election result as evidence of institutional conspiracy.

The Election Commission must remain open to scrutiny, complaints.

However, genuine criticism and deliberate disinformation must be distinguished.

Countermeasure: The Election Commission should have a rapid-response digital communication mechanism that publishes verified information, responds to significant allegations, releases accessible evidence and explains electoral procedures in regional languages.

Government: Creating an impression of administrative failure

Government policies and decisions are often complicated. Their objectives, implementation and outcomes may not be immediately understood by ordinary citizens.

This creates opportunities for misleading narratives.

Organised information  can:

• Present a government policy without its original context.
• Circulate fabricated government orders and notifications.
• Misrepresent economic statistics and development indicators.
• Present isolated administrative failures as evidence of total government collapse.
• Spread false claims about national security decisions, border developments or diplomatic setbacks.
• Create panic through fabricated announcements concerning fuel, banking, food supplies or public emergencies.

During a national security crisis, such misinformation can be particularly damaging. False reports about military casualties, ammunition shortages, territorial losses or operational decisions may affect public morale and create unnecessary confusion.

Countermeasure: Every major government department should have a designated digital communication and fact-verification team. Important decisions must be communicated promptly, clearly and consistently through official channels.

Judiciary: Eroding confidence in the rule of law

The independence of the judiciary is fundamental to constitutional democracy.

Disinformation campaigns may attempt to undermine judicial credibility by:

• Circulating fabricated extracts from court judgments.
• Misrepresenting judicial observations as final verdicts.
• Falsely attributing political motives to judges.
• Using edited videos of court proceedings to create misleading impressions.
• Creating conspiracy theories around sensitive judicial decisions.

Judicial institutions must be open to legitimate public discussion and criticism. However, fabricated judgments and deliberately distorted court proceedings can mislead citizens and undermine respect for the rule of law.

Countermeasure: Courts and authorised judicial communication channels should make authentic judgments, orders and clarifications easily accessible. Important developments in sensitive cases should be explained through verified official information without compromising judicial independence or ongoing proceedings.

Police and Central Armed Police Forces: Creating distrust in internal security

The police and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) are at the forefront of maintaining internal security.

They deal with terrorism, insurgency, organised crime, communal violence, border management and public order.

A deliberate propaganda campaign against these institutions can have several consequences:

• A fabricated video showing police brutality may provoke public anger and violent protests.
• An isolated incident may be presented as the normal conduct of an entire police force.
• False allegations against security personnel create distrust between citizens and law enforcement agencies.
• Misleading reports about casualties or operational failures may affect the morale of personnel.
• Fake messages about communal or regional discrimination may aggravate local tensions.

During counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency operations, misinformation can also compromise public cooperation and create operational difficulties.

Countermeasure: Police headquarters and CAPF formations should establish trained media-response cells. These cells should issue verified information promptly, correct fabricated claims and communicate the facts surrounding major security incidents.

At the same time, genuine complaints of misconduct must be investigated independently. Protecting institutional credibility does not mean shielding individuals from accountability.

Indian Army: Targeting national pride and military morale

The Indian Army enjoys considerable public trust. Their credibility, morale and public support are important elements of national security.

Hostile information campaigns may attempt to exploit sensitive military developments to:

• Spread fabricated reports of battlefield defeats.
• Circulate fake statements attributed to serving or retired military commanders.
• Present old photographs of military equipment losses as current events.
• Manufacture controversies concerning operational preparedness.
• Create false impressions of differences between the Army, Navy and Air Force.
• Question the competence and integrity of military leadership through manipulated material.

Such campaigns may have two audiences: Indian citizens and foreign observers.

Their purpose may be to reduce public confidence in India's military preparedness while projecting an exaggerated image of the adversary's capabilities.

During an actual conflict, this becomes particularly dangerous. False battlefield reports can affect public morale, create pressure on political leadership and provide an adversary with opportunities to exploit confusion.

Countermeasure: The Ministry of Defence and the three Services should strengthen their coordinated public communication systems. Verified operational information should be released through authorised channels, while sensitive military information must remain protected.

Retired military personnel, defence analysts and responsible media organisations can also help explain military developments and expose fabricated narratives without disclosing classified information.

ENEMY ON THE MOBILE: THE NEED TO STOP AND COUNTER THE PROPAGANDA WAR ON SOCIAL MEDIA-Part 1

 

Building a National Information Defence Network to Protect India's Institutions, Democracy and National Security

Introduction: The New Battlefield Is in Our Hands

The battlefield of modern warfare is no longer confined to geographical borders. It has entered our homes, offices and pockets through mobile phones. Every smartphone connected to social media has become a potential gateway for information, misinformation, propaganda and psychological warfare.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reported remarks at the Rashtriya Ekta Diwas celebrations at Ekta Nagar, Gujarat, on 31 October 2026, warning against the weaponisation of social media to spread rumours and damage India's image, highlight an emerging national security challenge. His appeal for collective public action deserves serious consideration.

Social media platforms such as WhatsApp, X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube have transformed communication. Information that once took days to circulate can now reach millions within minutes. Unfortunately, the same technology that empowers citizens can also be exploited by hostile intelligence agencies, extremist organisations, political propaganda networks and organised disinformation groups.

The objective of information warfare is not necessarily to make people believe a particular lie. It is often to make them distrust everything—including the truth.

This is particularly dangerous for India, a large, diverse, multilingual democracy facing external security threats, internal security challenges and intense geopolitical competition.

India therefore needs to move beyond occasional fact-checking and develop a permanent, coordinated and technologically sophisticated national information defence mechanism.

1. Emerging Technologies: Artificial Intelligence as a Weapon of Information Warfare

The nature of propaganda has undergone a fundamental transformation. Earlier, creating a convincing fake photograph, video or speech required considerable technical expertise. Today, artificial intelligence has made sophisticated manipulation inexpensive, rapid and accessible to almost anyone.

A. Deepfakes and manipulated videos

Generative AI can reproduce a person's face, voice, expressions and speaking style with remarkable accuracy. An old video of a political leader, military commander or government official can be modified to create an entirely fabricated statement.

For example:

• An old speech can be edited and presented as a fresh announcement.
• A senior military officer can apparently be shown making controversial statements about operational failures.
• A government minister's voice can be cloned to announce a fictitious policy decision.
• A fabricated video of communal violence can be circulated as an incident occurring in another Indian city.
• A genuine speech can be combined with an artificial voice-over to reverse its original meaning.

The danger is not limited to completely fabricated videos. Selective editing, removal of context, altered subtitles and misleading translations can be equally damaging.

B. Artificial intelligence and automated propaganda

AI-powered tools can generate thousands of posts, comments, photographs and videos in different Indian languages. Automated accounts and coordinated networks can then circulate them simultaneously.

Such campaigns can:

1. Create an artificial impression of widespread public anger.
2. Make a fabricated allegation appear credible through repetition.
3. Promote divisive hashtags and inflammatory content.
4. Target particular communities, geographical regions or institutions.
5. Exploit sensitive incidents to generate emotional reactions before verified facts become available.

AI also enables the creation of personalised propaganda. Different versions of the same false narrative can be designed for different audiences, exploiting their existing fears, grievances and political preferences.

C. Augmented reality and synthetic visual evidence

Augmented reality and other immersive technologies can superimpose artificial objects, events or individuals onto genuine surroundings.

As these technologies become more accessible, manipulated visual material may be presented as eyewitness evidence. Combined with AI-generated audio, such content could make fabricated incidents appear authentic.

The distinction between genuine recordings and synthetic content will consequently become more difficult for ordinary users to identify.

D. Quantum computing: A future concern

Quantum computing is not presently a practical mass-propaganda tool. However, advances in quantum computing could eventually affect cybersecurity, encryption and the integrity of digital communications.

The more immediate concern is the possibility of future quantum-enabled attacks against information systems, digital authentication and secure communications. India must therefore prepare for post-quantum cryptography and strengthen the authentication of official digital communications.

The central challenge is that technology is advancing faster than the average citizen's ability to distinguish genuine information from manufactured content.

India must consequently invest in AI-based detection, digital forensics, content authentication and public awareness.

2. Targeting India's Democratic and National Security Institutions

One of the most dangerous aspects of organised information warfare is the systematic attempt to undermine public confidence in India's democratic institutions.

A country does not necessarily have to be defeated militarily to be weakened. If its citizens lose confidence in their institutions, its internal cohesion and national resilience can be seriously damaged.

The objective of such campaigns may be to create the perception that every institution is corrupt, incompetent, politically compromised or incapable of protecting citizens.

The following institutions are particularly vulnerable.

Google Loses $500 Billion as Global AI Boom Faces Reality Check

 

The global artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom is undergoing a major correction as investors increasingly question whether the enormous sums being spent on AI infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. What had been Wall Street's most successful growth story is now facing growing skepticism.

Alphabet's Historic Market Value Loss

The biggest shock came from Google's parent company, Alphabet, whose shares fell over 12% in a single day after disappointing third-quarter results. The decline erased approximately $500 billion in market value, reducing Alphabet's valuation from nearly $4 trillion to about $3.46 trillion.

Although Alphabet reported strong revenue growth of 25% to $127.6 billion, investors were concerned about two key issues:

• Advertising revenue fell short of expectations.
• Google's AI-powered search products generate lower advertising revenue than traditional search.

This has raised fears that AI could unintentionally weaken the highly profitable business model that made Google dominant.

Rising Costs, Falling Cash Flow

The broader concern is the massive amount of money technology companies are spending on AI:

• Alphabet spent $51.4 billion in capital expenditure during a single quarter and reported negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter.
• Amazon reported negative cash flow of $42 billion, reflecting huge investments in data centers, cloud infrastructure, and AI technologies.
• Companies continue to spend aggressively despite uncertainty about when these investments will generate substantial profits.

In contrast, Microsoft has managed the transition more effectively. The company reported:

• Revenue growth of 19%.
• Cloud business growth of 30%.
• Free cash flow of $18.6 billion.

Microsoft's performance has reassured investors that enterprise demand for AI remains strong, although long-term profitability questions remain unresolved.

AI Sell-Off Extends to Semiconductor Industry

Concerns are no longer limited to technology platforms.

Intel's shares plunged more than 25% after it issued weak revenue forecasts and warned that positive cash flow was unlikely this year. The announcement triggered declines across the semiconductor sector, affecting:

• Nvidia
• AMD
• Qualcomm
• Broadcom

Server manufacturers such as Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Super Micro Computer also suffered losses, demonstrating that investor concerns have spread throughout the entire AI supply chain.

China's AI Sector Faces Severe Correction

China's stock markets have been hit even harder.

• The CSI300 Index recorded its worst monthly performance since 2016, falling 8.5% in October.
• The technology-focused STAR50 Index has lost roughly 40% of its value in less than four months.
• Chinese AI and semiconductor firms have collectively lost around $480 billion in market capitalization.

The decline reflects:

• Excessively high valuations after a rapid rally.
• Concerns over U.S. export restrictions.
• Uncertainty about future AI demand.
• Investor fears that expectations have become unrealistic.

Many Chinese technology, robotics, and semiconductor companies have lost nearly half their value.

Investors Question Sustainability of the AI Race

The root issue is the unprecedented scale of investment required.

According to estimates cited in the report:

• AI infrastructure spending could exceed $1 trillion in 2027.
• Global AI capital expenditure could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030.
• Nearly $900 billion may be spent on AI in 2026 alone.

To fund this expansion, major technology companies are increasingly borrowing through bond markets. However, if AI revenues fail to grow as expected, rising debt and interest costs could become a serious concern.

Key Takeaway

The AI revolution is not collapsing, but investors are demanding evidence that massive investments will translate into sustainable profits. Companies such as Microsoft have shown early signs of commercial success, while Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, and many Chinese technology firms are facing pressure to prove that AI can deliver returns commensurate with the trillions being invested.

In short, the market is shifting from "AI optimism" to "AI accountability", where future valuations will depend not on promises of technological transformation, but on demonstrable profits and cash flow

China's AI Bubble Has Burst. Who Will Pay The Price? | The Palki Sharma ShowDISR

 

Key Takeaway

The video argues that China’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom has entered a correction phase after excessive hype and speculation. Nearly $480 billion in market value has been wiped out from China's AI sector as investors reassess whether AI companies can actually generate profits matching their lofty valuations.

---

How the AI Bubble Formed in China

Over the last few years, investors rushed to invest in:

• AI companies
• Semiconductor firms
• AI chip manufacturers
• Robotics companies

This enthusiasm was driven by:

1. China's ambition to become a global technology superpower.
2. Heavy government support for advanced technologies.
3. Expectations that AI would generate massive future profits.

As a result, stock prices surged dramatically:

• MetaX, a Chinese AI chipmaker, gained around 700% after its market debut.
• Moore Threads, another AI chip company, rose about 400%.
• Robot manufacturer Unitree attracted demand nearly 8,000 times greater than the shares available.

Investors were buying based on future expectations rather than current earnings.

---

Why the Bubble Started Bursting

The turning point came when investors began asking difficult questions:

• How much money are these companies actually earning?
• How profitable is AI technology?
• How long will it take to recover investments?
• Are these valuations justified?

As doubts increased:

• Unitree's stock lost nearly half its value.
• MetaX and Moore Threads also saw sharp declines.
• China's STAR 50 Index, which tracks major technology and semiconductor companies, fell about 40% from its July peak.

The market mood shifted from optimism to caution.

---

China's Valuation Problem

Even after the decline, Chinese AI-related stocks remain highly expensive.

The video notes:

• Investors are paying roughly 100 times past earnings for many Chinese AI companies.
• By comparison, the US NASDAQ-100 trades at around 30 times earnings.

This suggests:

• Chinese AI stocks may still be overvalued.
• Further corrections are possible.
• Investors remain exposed to significant risks.

---

Wider Impact on China's Economy

Falling confidence creates additional challenges:

Reduced Funding

Companies may find it harder to raise capital.

IPO Delays

New stock market listings could be postponed.

Slower Expansion

Firms may delay investment and growth plans due to uncertain market conditions.

A loss of investor confidence can become self-reinforcing, making recovery more difficult.

---

This Is Not Just a China Problem

The video emphasizes that concerns about AI profitability are global.

Microsoft

Microsoft is reportedly offering voluntary buyout packages to employees while simultaneously investing heavily in AI infrastructure.

The broader message is that technology companies are:

• Spending enormous sums on AI.
• Looking for ways to control costs.
• Trying to prove that AI investments can translate into sustainable profits.

Other Technology Giants

Major corporations continue investing aggressively:

• Microsoft
• Alphabet (Google)
• Amazon

However, the central question remains:

Will AI-generated revenues justify these massive expenditures?

Building AI infrastructure is expensive; earning profits from it is far more challenging.

---

Implications for India

The video highlights important shifts in India's IT sector.

Traditionally, Indian IT companies depended on large workforces of engineers and programmers.

However, AI is beginning to change this model.

Workforce Trends

Major Indian firms including:

• TCS
• Infosys
• HCLTech
• Wipro
• Tech Mahindra
• LTIMindtree

have experienced substantial employee exits.

Although employee departures include resignations and retirements, overall workforce numbers have declined because hiring has not kept pace.

Why?

Companies face pressure from clients who demand:

• Lower costs
• Faster delivery
• Greater efficiency

AI tools can automate certain tasks, helping firms maintain margins while reducing dependence on large numbers of employees.

---

The Real Question Facing AI

According to the video, the debate is changing.

Earlier Question:

Who will win the AI race?

New Question:

Who will make money from AI?

The industry is moving from:

• Promises to proof
• Hype to profitability
• Expectations to results

---

Conclusion

The video concludes that the current situation does not mean AI has failed. Rather, it suggests that investors may have become overly optimistic about how quickly AI would generate profits.

China's AI market correction serves as a warning that technological revolutions do not automatically produce financial success. For AI companies worldwide, including those in China, the United States, and India, the next phase will be defined not by innovation alone but by the ability to demonstrate sustainable profitability.

In essence, every technology boom must pass two tests:

1. The technology must work.
2. The technology must generate profits.

China's AI sector is now facing the second and much tougher test.

इस्रायलचे भविष्य, नेतान्याहूंचे राजकीय गणित आणि इराणविरुद्धच्या युद्धाचे संभाव्य धोरण

 | २९ ऑक्टोबर २०२६

इस्रायलमधील निवडणुकीच्या दिलेल्या प्राथमिक आकडेवारीनुसार, देश एका महत्त्वाच्या राजकीय वळणावर उभा आहे. पंतप्रधान बेंजामिन नेतान्याहू यांच्या उजव्या विचारसरणीच्या आघाडीला ५३ जागा, गादी आयझेनकोट यांच्या नेतृत्वाखालील विरोधी गटाला ४८ जागा आणि अरब पक्षांना १९ जागा मिळण्याचा अंदाज आहे. १२० सदस्यांच्या नेसेटमध्ये सरकार स्थापन करण्यासाठी ६१ जागांची आवश्यकता असल्यामुळे कोणत्याही गटाला स्पष्ट बहुमत मिळालेले नाही.

मात्र, या आकडेवारीबाबत एक महत्त्वाची मर्यादा आहे: ही माहिती आपण दिलेल्या वृत्तावर आधारित आहे. अंतिम अधिकृत निकाल आणि आघाड्यांची प्रत्यक्ष स्थिती स्वतंत्रपणे पडताळल्याशिवाय या आकडेवारीला निश्चित निकाल समजता येणार नाही. पुढील विश्लेषण हे दिलेल्या आकडेवारीला आधार मानून केलेले संभाव्य राजकीय व सामरिक विश्लेषण आहे.

१. इस्रायलसमोरचे तीन मूलभूत प्रश्न

File:Benjamin Netanyahu Portrait February 2023 (3x4 cropped).jpg - Wikimedia Commons

पहिला प्रश्न — नेतान्याहू पुन्हा सरकार स्थापन करू शकतील का?

नेतान्याहूंचा उजवा राष्ट्रवादी गट सर्वांत मोठा असला, तरी ५३ जागा सरकार स्थापन करण्यासाठी पुरेशा नाहीत. त्यांना आणखी आठ सदस्यांचा पाठिंबा किंवा सरकारला विश्वासदर्शक ठरावात आवश्यक पाठिंबा मिळवण्याचा मार्ग शोधावा लागेल. अरब पक्षांचा पाठिंबा नाकारल्यास त्यांची राजकीय कोंडी अधिक कठीण होऊ शकते.

दुसरा प्रश्न — आयझेनकोट यांच्या नेतृत्वाखाली पर्यायी सरकार शक्य आहे का?

विरोधी गटाच्या ४८ जागा आणि अरब पक्षांच्या १९ जागा मिळून ६७ होतात. गणिताच्या दृष्टीने हे बहुमत शक्य आहे. मात्र, अरब पक्षांचा पाठिंबा म्हणजे सर्व ६७ सदस्य एका स्थिर सरकारला पाठिंबा देतील, असे नाही. पॅलेस्टिनी प्रश्न, इराणविषयक धोरण, लष्करी कारवाया आणि सरकारच्या राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षाविषयक भूमिकेवर त्यांच्यात मतभेद संभवतात.

तिसरा प्रश्न — सरकार कोणाचेही असो, इस्रायलच्या सुरक्षाधोरणात बदल होईल का?

इराणचा अणुकार्यक्रम, क्षेपणास्त्रे, प्रादेशिक सशस्त्र गट, गाझा आणि लेबनॉनमधील संघर्ष यांसारखे प्रश्न कोणत्याही सरकारसमोर राहतील. बदल मुख्यतः युद्ध कधी आणि किती तीव्रतेने लढायचे, अमेरिकेशी किती समन्वय ठेवायचा आणि राजनैतिक मार्गाला किती संधी द्यायची, या बाबींमध्ये होऊ शकतो.

२. इस्रायलमध्ये पुढे काय घडू शकते? — तीन संभाव्य राजकीय परिस्थिती

२८–२९ ऑक्टोबरच्या वृत्तांनुसार, नेतान्याहू यांच्या आघाडीला सर्वाधिक जागा मिळाल्या असल्या, तरी त्यांचे बहुमताचे गणित अवघड आहे. विरोधकांसाठीही अरब पक्षांच्या सहकार्याशिवाय सरकार स्थापन करणे कठीण आहे. त्यामुळे तीन प्रमुख पर्याय पुढे येतात.

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पर्याय १

नेतान्याहूंचे नेतृत्व कायम, पण तडजोडीचे सरकार

हा पहिला महत्त्वाचा पर्याय आहे. नेतान्याहू लहान पक्षांशी वाटाघाटी करू शकतात, विरोधी पक्षांतील काही सदस्यांचा पाठिंबा मिळवण्याचा प्रयत्न करू शकतात किंवा व्यापक राष्ट्रीय एकात्मतेच्या सरकारचा प्रस्ताव देऊ शकतात. मात्र, अति-उजव्या आणि धार्मिक पक्षांशी त्यांची असलेली बांधिलकी हा मोठा अडथळा ठरू शकतो.

परिणाम: इराणविषयक कठोर भूमिका कायम राहण्याची शक्यता अधिक; परंतु नव्या मोठ्या युद्धाबाबत निर्णय घेताना अमेरिकेचा पाठिंबा, लष्करी तयारी आणि देशांतर्गत राजकीय स्थैर्य यांचा विचार करावा लागेल.

पर्याय २

आयझेनकोट यांच्या नेतृत्वाखाली पर्यायी आघाडी

आयझेनकोट यांच्या गटाला अरब पक्षांच्या पाठिंब्याने संख्यात्मक बहुमत मिळू शकते. परंतु इस्रायलमधील राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षा, पॅलेस्टिनी प्रश्न आणि लष्करी धोरणांबाबत असलेले मतभेद मिटवणे सोपे नाही. सरकार स्थापन करण्यासाठी अरब पक्षांचा बाह्य पाठिंबा घेणे आणि त्यांना प्रत्यक्ष मंत्रिमंडळात सहभागी करून घेणे, या दोन वेगळ्या गोष्टी आहेत.

परिणाम: लष्करी कारवायांवर अधिक राजकीय देखरेख, युद्धाच्या उद्दिष्टांचे पुनर्मूल्यांकन आणि अमेरिकेशी समन्वय वाढवण्यावर भर दिला जाऊ शकतो. मात्र, इराणविषयी मवाळ धोरण स्वीकारले जाईल, असे गृहीत धरता येणार नाही.

पर्याय ३

राष्ट्रीय एकात्मतेचे सरकार किंवा पुन्हा निवडणूक

दोन्ही गटांतील मतभेद कायम राहिले, तर व्यापक आघाडीचे सरकार किंवा दीर्घकाळ चालणारी राजकीय अनिश्चितता निर्माण होऊ शकते. वाटाघाटी अपयशी ठरल्यास पुन्हा निवडणुकीची शक्यताही नाकारता येत नाही. दरम्यान, विद्यमान पंतप्रधान काळजीवाहू सरकारचे नेतृत्व करत राहू शकतात.

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परिणाम: सुरक्षा यंत्रणा आणि लष्कराचे दैनंदिन कामकाज सुरू राहील; मात्र मोठ्या, दीर्घकालीन युद्धाचा निर्णय घेण्यापूर्वी राजकीय वैधता आणि अमेरिकेची साथ मिळवणे अधिक महत्त्वाचे ठरेल.

माझ्या मते, नेतान्याहू यांना लगेच सत्तेबाहेर जावे लागेल, असा निष्कर्ष काढणे घाईचे ठरेल. त्यांचा गट सर्वांत मोठा असल्याने त्यांना सरकार स्थापनेसाठी महत्त्वाची संधी आहे. पण निवडणुकीत मिळालेला हा विजय पूर्ण राजकीय विजय नाही. त्यांना सत्ता टिकवण्यासाठी काही तडजोडी कराव्या लागू शकतात.

३. इराणविरुद्धच्या युद्धाबाबत इस्रायलचे पुढील धोरण काय असेल?

हा या निवडणुकीतील सर्वांत महत्त्वाचा सामरिक प्रश्न आहे.

नेतान्याहू यांनी निवडणूक प्रचारात इराणचा धोका आणि लष्करी यश यांवर भर दिला. मात्र, १४ ऑक्टोबरच्या रॉयटर्स वृत्तानुसार, निवडणुकीपूर्वी इराणवर प्रतिबंधात्मक हल्ला करण्याच्या बाजूने आपण नसल्याचे त्यांनी म्हटले होते. त्याच वेळी, इराणकडून हल्ला झाल्यास इस्रायल जोरदार प्रत्युत्तर देईल, असा इशाराही दिला होता.

यातून एक महत्त्वाचा फरक स्पष्ट होतो: इराणविरुद्ध कठोर भूमिका घेणे आणि तातडीने पूर्ण क्षमतेचे युद्ध सुरू करणे या दोन भिन्न गोष्टी आहेत.

इस्रायलच्या संभाव्य धोरणाचा अंदाज घेताना पाच बाबी विचारात घ्याव्या लागतील.

३.१ इराणची अण्वस्त्रनिर्मिती क्षमता रोखणे — सर्वोच्च सामरिक प्राधान्य

इस्रायलच्या दृष्टीने इराणला अण्वस्त्रधारी देश बनण्यापासून रोखणे हा दीर्घकालीन सुरक्षेचा केंद्रबिंदू राहण्याची शक्यता आहे. मात्र, अणुकार्यक्रमातील प्रत्येक प्रगतीचा अर्थ इराणने अण्वस्त्र तयार केले आहे, असा होत नाही. प्रत्यक्ष धोका ठरवताना अणुसामग्रीचा साठा, संवर्धनाची पातळी, शस्त्रनिर्मितीची तयारी आणि आंतरराष्ट्रीय निरीक्षण यांचे मूल्यमापन आवश्यक असते.

संभाव्य इस्रायली धोरण असे असू शकते:

• इराणच्या अणुकार्यक्रमावर गुप्तचर देखरेख वाढवणे.
• अणुस्थळे, क्षेपणास्त्रनिर्मिती आणि संबंधित लष्करी पायाभूत सुविधांविषयी माहिती गोळा करणे.
• अमेरिकेसह गुप्तचर व क्षेपणास्त्रप्रतिबंधक सहकार्य वाढवणे.
• राजनैतिक दबाव आणि निर्बंधांचा वापर करणे; परंतु लष्करी पर्याय खुला ठेवणे.

 इस्रायलची सरकार कोणतीही असली, तरी इराणच्या अणुकार्यक्रमाबाबत मूलभूत धोरणात मोठा बदल होण्यापेक्षा कारवाईची वेळ, व्याप्ती आणि अमेरिकेशी समन्वय यात बदल होण्याची शक्यता अधिक आहे.

३.२ पुन्हा थेट हल्ले होतील की मर्यादित संघर्षाला प्राधान्य दिले जाईल?

इराणविरुद्धच्या संभाव्य कारवाईचे तीन स्तर विचारात घेता येतात.

पहिला स्तर — प्रतिबंध आणि संरक्षण

क्षेपणास्त्र व ड्रोनविरोधी संरक्षण, गुप्तचर सहकार्य, सायबर संरक्षण आणि महत्त्वाच्या पायाभूत सुविधांची सुरक्षा बळकट करणे. मोठे युद्ध टाळण्याच्या दृष्टीने हा सर्वांत कमी जोखमीचा पर्याय आहे.

दुसरा स्तर — मर्यादित लष्करी किंवा गुप्त कारवाई

इराणकडून तातडीचा धोका असल्याचा निष्कर्ष काढल्यास इस्रायल मर्यादित लष्करी कारवाई, गुप्तचर मोहिमा किंवा सायबर उपायांचा विचार करू शकतो. अशा कारवायांची प्रत्यक्ष शक्यता आणि स्वरूप गुप्त असल्याने निश्चित भाकीत करणे शक्य नाही.

तिसरा स्तर — व्यापक थेट युद्ध

इराणकडून मोठा क्षेपणास्त्र हल्ला, अण्वस्त्रनिर्मितीच्या दिशेने निर्णायक पाऊल किंवा इस्रायलच्या नेतृत्वाला तातडीचा अस्तित्ववादी धोका जाणवल्यास व्यापक युद्धाची शक्यता वाढू शकते. मात्र, त्याचे आर्थिक, लष्करी आणि प्रादेशिक परिणाम प्रचंड असतील.

या तिन्ही पर्यायांपैकी पहिला पर्याय सातत्याने वापरला जाण्याची शक्यता आहे. दुसऱ्या पर्यायाचा वापर परिस्थितीनुसार होऊ शकतो. तिसरा पर्याय हा सर्वांत गंभीर असून, केवळ निवडणुकीच्या निकालावरून तो अपरिहार्य आहे असे म्हणता येणार नाही.

३.३ अमेरिकेची भूमिका — युद्धाचा निर्णय ठरवणारा निर्णायक घटक

इस्रायलच्या इराणविषयक धोरणात अमेरिकेची भूमिका अत्यंत महत्त्वाची आहे. इस्रायलला स्वतःची लष्करी क्षमता असली, तरी दीर्घकालीन युद्धासाठी गुप्तचर सहकार्य, हवाई संरक्षण, शस्त्रसामग्री आणि राजनैतिक पाठिंबा महत्त्वाचा ठरतो.

२१ ऑक्टोबरच्या रॉयटर्स विश्लेषणानुसार, इस्रायलच्या निवडणुकीत नेतृत्व बदलले तरी इराणला रोखण्याच्या मूलभूत सुरक्षा धोरणात मोठा बदल होण्याची शक्यता कमी आहे. दुसरीकडे, ८ ऑक्टोबरच्या वृत्तानुसार, अमेरिकेचे उपराष्ट्राध्यक्ष जे. डी. व्हान्स यांनी इराणने युरेनियम संवर्धन क्षमतेत ठोस कपात केल्याशिवाय व्यापक करार शक्य नसल्याचे सांगितले होते.

२९ ऑक्टोबरच्या असोसिएटेड प्रेसच्या वृत्तात अमेरिकेच्या मध्यावधी निवडणुकांनंतर इराणवर पुन्हा हल्ले होण्याच्या शक्यतेबाबत आखाती देशांना दिलेल्या कथित सूचनांचा उल्लेख आहे. तथापि, अमेरिकेचे अध्यक्ष डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प यांनी हल्ल्याचा अंतिम निर्णय घेतल्याचे त्यातून सिद्ध होत नाही.

त्यामुळे पुढील काही दिवसांत इस्रायलसमोर तीन प्रश्न असतील:

• अमेरिका नव्या लष्करी कारवाईला स्पष्ट संमती देईल का?
• इराणला अणुकार्यक्रमात ठोस सवलती देण्यास भाग पाडण्यासाठी राजनैतिक वाटाघाटींना आणखी वेळ दिला जाईल का?
• इस्रायलला तातडीचा धोका वाटल्यास अमेरिका सहमत नसतानाही इस्रायल स्वतंत्र कारवाई करेल का?

माझा अंदाज: नेतान्याहू यांना व्यापक लष्करी कारवाईची इच्छा असली, तरी अमेरिकेच्या पाठिंब्याशिवाय ती करणे अधिक जोखमीचे ठरेल. विशेषतः इराणच्या प्रत्युत्तरामुळे इस्रायलवर आणि आखाती देशांतील अमेरिकी तळांवर मोठे हल्ले होण्याची शक्यता असल्यास वॉशिंग्टनची भूमिका निर्णायक ठरू शकते.

३.४ इराणमधील सत्ताबदल हे वास्तववादी युद्धाचे उद्दिष्ट आहे का?

इराणच्या अणुकार्यक्रमाला आणि क्षेपणास्त्र क्षमतेला धक्का देणे हे एक उद्दिष्ट आहे; परंतु इराणची राजवटच उलथवून टाकणे हे त्यापेक्षा कितीतरी व्यापक उद्दिष्ट आहे.

लष्करी हल्ल्यांमुळे काही पायाभूत सुविधा नष्ट होऊ शकतात, वरिष्ठ नेतृत्वाचे नुकसान होऊ शकते आणि अर्थव्यवस्थेवर दबाव वाढू शकतो. मात्र, त्यातून आपोआप राजवट कोसळेल किंवा इराणमध्ये इस्रायलला अनुकूल सरकार येईल, याची खात्री नाही.

उलट, बाह्य हल्ल्यांमुळे इराणमध्ये राष्ट्रवादी भावना वाढू शकतात. उर्वरित नेतृत्व अधिक कट्टर होऊ शकते आणि भविष्यात अण्वस्त्रप्रतिबंधक क्षमता मिळवण्याची प्रेरणा वाढू शकते. इराणच्या राजवटीच्या भवितव्याबाबत अमेरिकेच्या काँग्रेसच्या संशोधन अहवालातही लष्करी दबाव आणि राजवट कोसळण्याची शक्यता यांमध्ये निश्चित संबंध नसल्याचे स्पष्ट होते.

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म्हणूनच, इस्रायलने लष्करी विजयाचे मोजमाप केवळ किती लक्ष्ये नष्ट झाली यावर न करता, इराणचा दीर्घकालीन धोका प्रत्यक्षात किती कमी झाला यावर करणे आवश्यक आहे.

३.५ होर्मुझची सामुद्रधुनी आणि जागतिक अर्थव्यवस्था

इराणविरुद्धचे युद्ध हे केवळ इस्रायल आणि इराण यांच्यातील संघर्ष राहिलेले नाही. होर्मुझच्या सामुद्रधुनीतील जहाजवाहतुकीत व्यत्यय आल्यास जागतिक तेल व वायू पुरवठ्यावर गंभीर परिणाम होऊ शकतात. २०२६ मधील संघर्षामुळे या मार्गावरील वाहतूक आणि ऊर्जा बाजारपेठेवर मोठा दबाव आल्याचे ब्रिटिश संसदीय संशोधन आणि अमेरिकेच्या काँग्रेसच्या संशोधन अहवालांत नमूद आहे.

यामुळे इस्रायलला युद्धाचे उद्दिष्ट साध्य करण्याबरोबरच खालील जोखमींचाही विचार करावा लागेल:

• तेलाच्या किमती आणि जागतिक महागाई वाढणे.
• आखाती देशांतील ऊर्जा प्रकल्पांवर प्रत्युत्तरात्मक हल्ले होणे.
• समुद्री व्यापार आणि विमा खर्च वाढणे.
• अमेरिकेच्या लष्करी संसाधनांवर दीर्घकालीन ताण येणे.

भारतासारख्या ऊर्जा आयातीवर मोठ्या प्रमाणात अवलंबून असलेल्या देशासाठी हे विशेष महत्त्वाचे आहे. इस्रायलचा लष्करी निर्णय कितीही मर्यादित असला, तरी इराणचे प्रत्युत्तर व्यापक झाले तर त्याचे आर्थिक परिणाम हजारो किलोमीटर दूर जाणवू शकतात.

४. नेतान्याहू आणि आयझेनकोट : इराणविषयक धोरणातील संभाव्य फरक

धोरणात्मक मुद्दा	नेतान्याहूंच्या नेतृत्वाखाली	आयझेनकोट यांच्या नेतृत्वाखाली
इराणचा अणुकार्यक्रम	कठोर दबाव; लष्करी पर्याय खुला	कठोर प्रतिबंध कायम; निर्णयप्रक्रियेत अधिक समन्वयाची शक्यता
अमेरिकेशी संबंध	वैयक्तिक व सामरिक समन्वयावर भर; मतभेद संभवतात	संस्थात्मक समन्वय आणि सामरिक नियोजनावर अधिक भर असू शकतो
व्यापक युद्ध	परिस्थितीनुसार आक्रमक पर्यायाचा विचार	उद्दिष्ट, खर्च आणि परिणाम यांचे पुनर्मूल्यांकन करण्याची शक्यता
राजनैतिक वाटाघाटी	सुरक्षा हमी व ठोस सवलती मिळाल्यासच स्वीकारण्याची शक्यता	राजनैतिक पर्यायांना अधिक संधी मिळू शकते; परंतु त्याची खात्री नाही
पॅलेस्टिनी प्रश्न	उजव्या पक्षांचा प्रभाव निर्णायक	काही धोरणात्मक बदल शक्य; व्यापक राजकीय तडजोड कठीण

टीप: तक्त्यातील तुलना ही दोन्ही नेतृत्वांच्या ज्ञात राजकीय भूमिकांवर आधारित विश्लेषणात्मक शक्यता आहे; जाहीर झालेले अंतिम धोरण किंवा निश्चित आश्वासन नव्हे.

आयझेनकोट हे माजी लष्करप्रमुख असल्यामुळे त्यांना लष्करी कारवायांचे फायदे, मर्यादा आणि दीर्घकालीन परिणाम यांची जाणीव आहे. परंतु याचा अर्थ ते इराणविषयी सौम्य भूमिका घेतील, असा नाही. इस्रायलमधील विविध प्रमुख पक्षांमध्ये इराणच्या अणुकार्यक्रमाबाबत व्यापक सुरक्षा-सहमती आहे. संभाव्य फरक युद्ध कधी सुरू करावे, त्याची उद्दिष्टे काय असावीत आणि राजनैतिक प्रयत्नांना किती संधी द्यावी यामध्ये अधिक दिसू शकतो.

५. पुढील ३ ते ६ महिन्यांचा संभाव्य घटनाक्रम

खालील शक्यता या उपलब्ध वृत्तांवर आधारित माझे गुणात्मक मूल्यमापन आहे. या अधिकृत संभाव्यता किंवा सांख्यिकीय अंदाज नाहीत.

राजकीय वाटाघाटी आणि सरकार स्थापनेचा संघर्ष

उच्च शक्यता

नेतान्याहूंचा गट, आयझेनकोट यांचे विरोधक आणि अरब पक्ष यांच्यात सरकार स्थापनेसाठी चुरस राहण्याची शक्यता आहे. व्यापक आघाडी किंवा अल्पमत सरकार हा तात्पुरता मार्ग ठरू शकतो.

इराणविरुद्ध दबाव, गुप्तचर कारवाया आणि संरक्षण बळकटीकरण

उच्च शक्यता

कोणतेही सरकार असले, तरी इस्रायलची क्षेपणास्त्रविरोधी क्षमता, गुप्तचर यंत्रणा आणि संभाव्य धोक्यांविरुद्धची तयारी महत्त्वाची राहील.

अमेरिका-इराण वाटाघाटी किंवा तात्पुरता युद्धविराम

शक्य

अणुकार्यक्रम, होर्मुझमधील जहाजवाहतूक आणि हल्ले थांबवण्याच्या अटींवर काही तडजोड होऊ शकते. मात्र, आधीच्या वाटाघाटी अपयशी ठरल्याने करार टिकेल याची खात्री नाही.

इराणवर नव्या व्यापक हल्ल्यांची मालिका

गंभीर पण अनिश्चित

अमेरिकेची संमती, इराणच्या अणुकार्यक्रमाबाबतचे गुप्तचर निष्कर्ष आणि संभाव्य प्रत्युत्तर यांवर या पर्यायाचे भवितव्य अवलंबून राहील. निवडणुकीचा निकाल एकटाच युद्ध सुरू होण्याचा पुरावा नाही.

६. भारतासाठी याचे काय परिणाम होतील?

भारताने या परिस्थितीकडे केवळ इस्रायलच्या अंतर्गत राजकारणाच्या दृष्टीने पाहू नये. भारताचे इस्रायलशी संरक्षण व तंत्रज्ञान क्षेत्रातील संबंध आहेत; इराणशी ऐतिहासिक, आर्थिक आणि संपर्कविषयक हितसंबंध आहेत; तर आखाती देशांशी ऊर्जा, व्यापार आणि भारतीय नागरिकांच्या सुरक्षिततेशी संबंधित व्यापक संबंध आहेत.

भारतासाठी पुढील बाबी महत्त्वाच्या ठरतील:

1. ऊर्जा सुरक्षा: होर्मुझमधील वाहतुकीत अडथळा आल्यास तेलाच्या किमती आणि भारताचे आयात बिल वाढू शकते.
2. भारतीय नागरिकांची सुरक्षा: इस्रायल, इराण आणि आखाती देशांतील भारतीय नागरिकांसाठी आपत्कालीन स्थलांतर व संपर्कव्यवस्था तयार ठेवणे आवश्यक आहे.
3. संतुलित राजनय: इस्रायलशी संरक्षण सहकार्य कायम ठेवताना इराण आणि आखाती देशांशी संवाद सुरू ठेवणे भारताच्या हिताचे आहे.
4. सागरी सुरक्षा: व्यापारी जहाजांची सुरक्षितता, विमा खर्च आणि संभाव्य समुद्री अडथळे यांचे सातत्याने मूल्यमापन करणे आवश्यक आहे.
5. दहशतवादविरोधी सहकार्य: प्रादेशिक संघर्षाचा वापर करून कार्यरत होणाऱ्या सशस्त्र गटांवर, शस्त्रपुरवठ्यावर आणि दहशतवादी वित्तपुरवठ्यावर लक्ष ठेवणे आवश्यक आहे.

निष्कर्ष : इस्रायलसमोर निर्णायक निवड

इस्रायलच्या निवडणुकीने नेतान्याहूंचे राजकीय भविष्य अनिश्चित केले आहे; परंतु देशाच्या सुरक्षा चिंतांमध्ये तातडीने बदल घडवलेला नाही. इराणचा अणुकार्यक्रम, क्षेपणास्त्र क्षमता, प्रादेशिक प्रभाव आणि इस्रायलच्या अस्तित्वाविषयीचा धोका या मुद्द्यांवर इस्रायलचे कठोर धोरण कायम राहण्याची शक्यता आहे.

मात्र, पुढील सरकारसमोर एक मूलभूत प्रश्न असेल: इराणविरुद्ध सतत लष्करी दबाव ठेवून दीर्घकालीन सुरक्षा साध्य करता येईल, की त्यासाठी लष्करी प्रतिबंधाबरोबरच राजनैतिक करार आणि प्रादेशिक स्थैर्याचीही गरज आहे?

माझ्या मते, पुढील काळात तीन गोष्टी सर्वाधिक निर्णायक ठरतील:

• अमेरिकेचे अध्यक्ष ट्रम्प इराणविरुद्ध नव्या लष्करी कारवाईला पाठिंबा देतात की वाटाघाटींना प्राधान्य देतात.
• इराण आपल्या अणुकार्यक्रमाबाबत आणि होर्मुझमधील जहाजवाहतुकीबाबत ठोस सवलती देतो की संघर्ष सुरू ठेवतो.
• इस्रायलमध्ये स्थापन होणारे सरकार कठोर सुरक्षा धोरण कायम ठेवत असताना व्यापक युद्धाचा खर्च आणि राजकीय परिणाम नियंत्रित करू शकते की नाही.

अंतिम निष्कर्ष: इस्रायलचे भविष्य केवळ नेतान्याहू सत्तेत राहतात की आयझेनकोट त्यांची जागा घेतात यावर ठरणार नाही. निर्णायक प्रश्न असा असेल की इस्रायलला इराणचा धोका कमी करताना स्वतःला दीर्घकालीन, खर्चिक आणि प्रादेशिक युद्धात अडकण्यापासून रोखता येते का. हाच पुढील काही महिन्यांतील इस्रायलच्या राष्ट्रीय सुरक्षा धोरणाचा खरा कस असेल.