China Japan ties
Over the last year Japan–China
relations have slid into a serious diplomatic crisis, driven above all by
Tokyo’s sharper defence posture on Taiwan and Beijing’s coercive pushback.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could
be treated as an “existential crisis” for Japan under its 2015 security laws
has become the focal flashpoint, but it sits atop long‑running maritime,
military and economic frictions.
How ties deteriorated in the
last year
- In November 2025, Takaichi told the Diet
that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could qualify as a “survival‑threatening
situation” for Japan, legally allowing the Self‑Defense Forces to enter a
Taiwan conflict in collective self‑defence.
- China reacted with unusual fury: the
consul general in Osaka posted threats against Takaichi on X, and Beijing
accused Japan of “military threat” and “remilitarisation,” triggering a
full‑blown diplomatic row.
- At the UN and other fora through late
2025, both sides traded sharp statements on Taiwan, with China invoking
Japan’s wartime history and warning Tokyo not to “interfere in China’s
internal affairs,” while Japan defended its right to respond to threats that
endanger its survival.
- Beijing intensified military pressure
around Japan: PLA Navy and Air Force activities expanded in the East China
Sea and Sea of Japan, often in joint patrols with Russia, raising Tokyo’s
concern about encirclement and sea‑lane vulnerability in a Taiwan
contingency.
- Economically, China tightened export
controls on key dual‑use items and signalled a near‑halt to rare‑earth
shipments to Japan, while issuing travel advisories that hit tourism,
clearly signalling economic coercion.
- Domestically, Takaichi’s firm line
against Chinese bullying pushed her approval ratings above 70%, and she
has moved toward a snap election to secure a stronger mandate for defence
build‑up and China policy, even as Beijing warns against Japan’s “strong
Japan” agenda.
Key challenges Japan faces from
China
1. Taiwan and direct security
risk
- Japan’s Nansei Islands (including
Yonaguni) lie very close to Taiwan, so any conflict there could directly
expose Japanese territory and sea‑lanes to Chinese missiles and naval
activity.
- Under its 2015 security legislation,
Tokyo now acknowledges Taiwan as a scenario where Japan might exercise
collective self‑defence, but that also makes Japan an explicit target in
Chinese planning, complicating crisis management.
2. Maritime and air pressure
- China has steadily expanded naval and
air operations around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and into the Sea of
Japan, often using large multi‑ship formations and joint bomber patrols
with Russia.
- This strains Japan’s Coast Guard and Air
Self‑Defence Force, forces high‑tempo scrambles, and threatens Japan’s
control of critical chokepoints and sea lines of communication in a
contingency.
3. Economic coercion
- As tensions rose after Takaichi’s Taiwan
remarks, Beijing used export controls on “dual‑use” materials and rare
earths, plus informal tourism and business curbs, to signal that Japan’s
economy can be targeted.
- Given China is a major trade partner,
Japan must now hedge supply chains, diversify rare‑earth and high‑tech
inputs, and support firms exposed to Chinese market retaliation.
4. Information, history and
diplomacy
- China has tried to frame Japan’s tougher
security policy as a return to “militarism,” sending letters to the UN and
lobbying others to be “vigilant” about Japan’s defence modernisation.
- This information campaign seeks to blunt
Japan’s efforts to build coalitions (with the US, Australia, India,
Philippines and Europe) and to limit support for Tokyo in any Taiwan‑related
crisis.
5. China–Russia coordination
- Growing China–Russia military
cooperation in the region — shared airfields, joint bomber patrols, and
possible reciprocal port access — raises the prospect of two‑front
pressure on Japan’s northern and southern approaches in a crisis.
- That complicates Japanese force
planning, as it must simultaneously watch the Taiwan Strait, East China
Sea, Sea of Japan and northern approaches, stretching limited resources.
Japan’s strategic response
- Takaichi is using her high popularity
and potential snap poll to seek a mandate for higher defence spending,
stronger US–Japan alliance coordination on Taiwan, and deeper security
ties with like‑minded Indo‑Pacific partners.
- Tokyo is also working to harden its
south‑western islands, invest in counter‑strike capabilities, and build
economic resilience against Chinese sanctions, while trying to avoid
outright military escalation.
In sum, over the past year
Japan–China ties have moved from uneasy competition into open diplomatic
confrontation, with Taiwan at the centre, and Japan now faces simultaneous
military, economic and diplomatic pressure from a more assertive China
