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Wednesday, 30 November 2016


माझ्या या पुस्तकाला वर्ष २०१६ चे ग्रंथोज्जनक पारितोषिक मिळाले आहे. आव्हान जम्मू-आणि-काश्मीर मधील छुप्या युद्धाचे ब्रिगेडिअर हेमंत महाजन

CHINESE PLAAF operating out of TAR poses no worthwhile threat to our land forces provided the IAF is given free hand to operate. Chinese land forces can/will be decimated in the TBA.

PLAAF In terms of number of aircraft the Chinese Air Force is the largest Air Power segment in our neighbourhood. Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is the third largest in the world. When we in India look at PLAAF capability, we examine PLAAF operational capability ex Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). PLAAF operations from mainland China, though operationally feasible, but with little effectiveness. This paper examines PLAAF capability to support their Army and their offensive strike power with conventional weapons only. In order to evaluate PLAAF capability ex TAR, understanding of regional geography and terrain is absolutely essential. Of the seven Military Regions (MR) OF THE Chinese Armed Forces only two are opposite India. LANZHOU MR is opposite Ladakh sector and CHENGDU MR is opposite north eastern region. The MRs are further sub-divided into Military Districts (MD). MDs facing us are:- · Chengdu MR. Two MDs in this region are YUNAN (opposite Myanmar) and Xizang (opposite Assam, Sikkim and Arunachal). · Lanzhou MR. South Xinjiang MD (opposite UP,HP and Ladakh). East Xinjiang faces us adjoining Ladakh. PLAAF Airfields There are 15 operational bases in these two regions from where PLAAF can launch air operations. If the airfields located in probable Tactical Battle Area (TBA) are considered the number reduces to a mere five. These airfields are:- · Khotan (Lanzhou MR) · Hoping · Kongka Dzong (Chengdu MR) · Donshoon · Pangta Except for Khotan the other four airfields are at an average location of around 4000 metre. Khotan at 1400 metre is nearly at same elevation as Srinagar. Pilots, who have operated from Srinagar would understand the problems better. Simply stated; an aeroplane and human being is affected by altitude in identical manner. Both start puffing and panting with increase in altitude. Load carrying capacity drops markedly. Due to high true air speed at altitude corresponding to same indicated air speed, landing and take off run are excessively long. Remaining ten airfields in the region are Kashgar, Kunming, Paoshan, Jekundo, Chengdu, Petun, Mangshi, Nagchuka I&II and Kantse. PLAAF continues to depend upon obsolete/obsolescent aeroplanes viz Q-5, IL- 28, J-8, Tu-16 etc. Modern fleet comprises of a mix of Su-27/30. Even a Su-30 will reach the TBA with minimal load due to distances involved. Q-5, IL-28 and J-8 are ineffective in terms of radii of action and load carrying capacity. Tu-16 can be used with sufficient load but its employment in hilly terrain is highly doubtful. Radar cover at medium and high level is satisfactory in spite of vintage radars being operated. However low level cover is virtually non-existent/ineffective due to terrain and fewer number of radars. Most of the airfields have dedicated radar located at the base. First generation air defence weapons are the only protection available. Deployment of low level SAMs is limited. Airlift Capability Airlift capability of PLAAF is extremely limited due to exponential reduction in carrying capacity at high altitude. For instance an IL 76 of the IAF, which can carry 40 ton from Chandigarh to Leh. But on return trip Leh-Chandigarh, it will barely carry less than half the load, may be lesser. Likewise heli-lift capability reduces exponentially. Even as a concept using helicopters for large scale troop/equipment transfer within TAR is well nigh impossible. For instance a Mi-17, which can lift around 2000kg at sea level, will carry a mere few hundred kg at PLAAF airfields. Capability to air drop a fully equipped battalion size force is simply unachievable. Enhancement of Capability with Force Multipliers Force multipliers viz mid air refuellers, airborne warning and control systems, if used by PLAAF will enhance their capability by a few notches but will still remain well below the force levels required to cause any substantive attrition. Weather For eight months in a year( September to April), operations will be severely effected due to extremely low temperatures, icy strong surface winds and extensive ice accumulation over the runway. Few airfields, particularly in Chengdu MR are affected by extensive fog. Sustained day/night operations are virtually impossible. PLAAF Capability ex TAR at a Glance · Only effective strike element is Su-27/30. Even this machine will operate with severe load penalty. · Airfield infra-structure cannot support large scale and sustained operations. · Extremely limited night operations are possible. · Tactical Battle Area can be approached from very few directions due to terrain. · Nearest Indian airfields viz Bareilly, Gorakhpur, Bagdogra, Hashimara, Jorhat, Gauhati, Tezpur, Chabua, Mohanbari and nearly a dozen Advance Landing Grounds will be around 4-500 km in most cases. · Strike elements of IAF will lift off with maximum load as all of these are at Sea Level unlike PLAAF airfields. · Air Defence infra structure is extremely limited and is in pockets. Chances of successful interception of IAF strike element in TBA is virtually NIL. However strike elements targeting PLAAF airfields will/may face air defence aircraft. · Airlift capability of PLAAF is grossly inadequate for any large scale transfer of troops/equipment by air. PLAAF capability ex TAR is severely limited and would remain so, irrespective of the acquisition and/or employment of more modern aircraft, which might be in their inventory by 2020. PLAAF elements based in mainland China will have no substantive effect in overall PLAAF performance ex TAR. Indeed if our diplomacy fails and PLAAF operates out of bases in Myanmar and Bangla Desh, our problems will increase exponentially. PLAAF operating out of TAR poses no worthwhile threat to our land forces provided the IAF is given free hand to operate. Chinese land forces can/will be decimated in the TBA. Nuclear China is beyond the scope of this paper. Conventional tipped SSMs will also have little or no effect, even if used by PLAAF


Tuesday, 29 November 2016

WATCH ME LIVE ON TV 9 MARATHI 5PM-6PM-लष्करी अधिकाऱ्यांच्या पत्नींच्या धाडसामुळे दहशतवाद्यांचा कट फसला Nagrota army camp attack : अधिकाऱ्यांच्या कुटुंबियांना ओलीस ठेवून भारतीय सैन्याला वेठीस धरण्याचा दहशतवाद्यांचा डाव होता. मात्र, दोन पत्नींनी प्रसंगावधान राखून हा डाव उधळला.

Nagrota army camp attack: नागरोटा येथे भारतीय लष्करी अधिकाऱ्यांच्या पत्नींनी दाखविलेल्या धाडसामुळे दहशतवाद्यांचा कट उधळला गेल्याची माहिती समोर आली आहे. दहशतवाद्यांनी मंगळवारी पहाटे नागरोटा लष्करी तळावर हल्ला केला होता. याठिकाणी लष्करातील अनेक वरिष्ठ अधिकाऱ्यांची निवासस्थाने आहेत. दहशतवाद्यांनी पोलिसांच्या गणवेशात सीमारेषा पार करुन लष्कर तुकडीत प्रवेश मिळवला होता. लष्करी मुख्यालयापासून फक्त तीन किमी अंतरावर दहशतवादी होते. त्यामुळे अधिकाऱ्यांच्या कुटुंबियांना ओलीस ठेवून भारतीय सैन्याला वेठीस धरण्याचा दहशतवाद्यांचा डाव होता. मात्र, दोन जवानांच्या पत्नींनी प्रसंगावधान राखून हा डाव उधळला. दोन्ही जवान रात्रपाळीवर असल्याने त्यांच्या पत्नी नवजात बालकासोबत घरी एकट्या होत्या. यावेळी दहशतवादी लष्करी अधिकाऱ्यांची निवासस्थाने असलेल्या एका इमारतीमध्ये शिरले. ही गोष्ट या जवानांच्या पत्नींच्या लक्षात आली. तेव्हा त्यांनी अजिबात न घाबरता शौर्याचं अनुकरणीय प्रदर्शन दाखवलं आहे. दहशतवाद्यांना हेडक्वार्टर्समध्ये प्रवेश करता येऊ नये यासाठी त्यांनी घरातील सामान आणून गेट बंद करुन टाकला. यामुळे दहशतवादी घुसू शकले नाहीत आणि त्यांचा कट फसला. जर महिलांनी वेळीच हे धाडस दाखवले नसते तर कदाचित दहशतवाद्यांनी त्यांना ओलीस ठेवले असते. ज्यामुळे लष्कर आणि त्यांच्या कुटुबाचं मोठे नुकसान करण्यात यशस्वी झाले असते, अशी माहिती एका लष्करी अधिकाऱ्याने दिली. दहशतवादी लष्कर जवान आणि त्यांचं कुटुंब राहत असलेल्या दोन इमारतींमध्ये घुसले होते. त्यांना ओलीस ठेवण्याचा प्रयत्न होणार होता. परिस्थितीची तात्काळ माहिती घेण्यात आली आणि बचावकार्याला सुरुवात करत सर्वांना वाचवण्यात आले, ज्यामध्ये १२ जवान, दोन महिला आणि त्यांची नवजात बालकं होती, अशी माहिती संरक्षण खात्याच्या प्रवक्त्यांनी दिली आहे. दहशतवादी इमारतीत शिरल्याची माहिती मिळाल्यानंतर भारतीय जवानांनी तातडीने त्याठिकाणी धाव घेतली. मात्र, या बचावकार्यादरम्यान भारतीय सैन्यातील एक अधिकारी आणि दोन जवान शहीद झाले. नागरोटा येथील हल्ल्यात महाराष्ट्रातील नांदेड येथील जवान संभाजी यशवंत कदम व पंढरपूर येथील कुणाल मुन्ना गोसावी हे शहीद झाले आहेत. कदम त्यांच्या मागे आई, वडील, दोन विवाहीत बहिणी, पत्नी व तीन वर्षांची मुलगी आहे. त्यांचा २००६ मध्ये विवाह झाला होता. कदम यांचे लोहा तालुक्यातील जानापुरी हे गाव. पंढरपूर अर्बन बँकेचे संचालक मुन्ना गोसावी यांचे कुणाल हे वीरसुपुत्र होत. दोन जवान हुतात्मा झाल्याची माहिती कळताच नांदेड व पंढरपूरसह महाराष्ट्रावर शोककळा पसरली आहे. जम्मू-काश्मीरमध्ये दहशतवाद्यांनी जवानांच्या दिशेने गोळीबार सुरू केला. यावेळी सेवा बजावत असलेले कदम व गोसावी यांच्यासह अन्य जवानांनी दहशतवाद्यांना जोरदार प्रत्युत्तर दिले. दोन्ही बाजूंनी झालेल्या गोळीबारादरम्यान कदम व गोसावी धारातीर्थी पडले जम्मू-काश्मीरच्या नगरोटा आर्मी कँम्पवर झालेल्या हल्ल्यात महाराष्ट्रातील मेजर आणि जवानासह ७ जवान शहीद झाले. या हल्ल्याबाबतचा अलर्ट आधीच देण्यात आला होता. साधारण १० दिवसआधी एका रिपोर्टमध्ये अलर्टची माहिती देण्यात आली होती. त्यानंतरही लष्करी तळावर एवढी सुरक्षा वाढविण्यात आली नाही की हल्ला रोखता येईल. आता अशीही माहिती समोर येत आहे की दहशतवाद्यांनी ऑफिसर्स मेस आणि लष्करी अधिकारी आणि कर्मचाऱ्यांच्या क्वार्टर्समध्ये घुसण्याचा प्रयत्न केला होता. दहशतवाद्यांना सामान्य नागरिकांना ओलिस ठेवण्याचा कट आखला होता. दोन लष्करी अधिकाऱ्यांच्या पत्नींनी दाखवलेल्या शौर्यामुळे तो उधळला गेला. जवानांच्या कुटुंबीयांना ओलिस ठेवण्याचा होता कट, महिलांनी दाखवले शौर्य - दहशतवादी पोलिसांच्या वेशात आले होते. त्यांनी लष्करी तळात घुसून हेडक्वार्टरपर्यंत जाण्याचा कट आखला होता. - हेडकॉर्टरमध्ये घुसून जवानांच्या कुटुंबीयांना ओलिस ठेवण्याचा त्यांचा कट होता. मात्र दोन जवानांच्या पत्नींनी तो उधळून लावला. - जवान नाइट ड्यूटीवर गेले होते तर, घरात त्यांची मुले आणि पत्नी होती. दहशतवादी घुसल्यानंतर महिलांनी धाडस दाखवत त्यांनी हेडकॉर्टरमध्ये प्रवेश करु नये यासाठी घरातील सामान आणून गेटबंद करुन टाकले. - मीडिया रिपोर्ट्सनुसार, एका लष्करी अधिकाऱ्याने सांगितले, की दहशतवादी घुसल्याचे कळाल्यानंतर दोन महिलांनी धाडस दाखवले. - दहशतवादी क्वार्टर्समध्ये घुसण्याच्या प्रयत्नात होते. परिस्थितीचे गांभीर्य ओळखून तत्काळ बचावकार्याला सुरुवात करण्यात आली. त्यावेळी इमारतीमध्ये १२ जवान, दोन जवानांच्या पत्नी आणि त्यांची नवजात बालकं होती. - बचावकार्यादरम्यान, एक अधिकारी आणि दोन जवानांना वीरमरण आले. मात्र निकराने लढा देत त्यांनी तीन दहशतवाद्यांना यमसदनी धाडले. त्यांचे मृतदेह ताब्यात घेण्यात आले आहेत. 10 मुद्द्यांमध्ये समजून घ्या नगरोटा हल्ला #1 - लष्कराला कन्फ्यूज करण्यासाठी पोलिसांच्या वेशात दहशतवादी लष्करी तळात घुसले. #2 - त्यानंतर दहशतवाद्यांनी ऑफिसर्स मेसवर बॉम्ब फेकत तोफखाना केंद्रात घुसले. #3 - सुरुवातीच्या एन्काऊंटरमध्ये एक ऑफिसर आणि तीन जवान शहीद झाले. #4 - दहशतवादी लष्करी तळात घुसल्यानंतर त्यांनी लष्करी अधिकारी आणि कर्मचाऱ्यांच्या क्वार्टर्सकडे मोर्चा वळविला. #5 - दोन इमारतींमध्ये महिला आणि लहान मुले होती. दहशतवाद्यांनी तिथे घुसण्याचा प्रयत्न केल्यामुळे ओलिस ठेवल्यासारखी परिस्थिती निर्माण झाली. #6 - लष्कराने तत्काळ पॅरा कमांडोंना पाचारण केले आणि बचावकार्य हाती घेण्यात आले. कमांडोंच्या प्रत्युत्तरात तीन दहशतवादी ठार झाले. #7 - 12 जवानांसह 2 नवजात बालके आणि दोन महिलांना सुरक्षितस्थळी हलविण्यात आले. यातील एक बाळ दोन महिन्यांचं तर दुसरं 18 महिन्यांचं आहे. #8 - रेस्क्यू ऑपरेशनदरम्यान एक ऑफिसर आणि दोन जवान शहीद झाले. #9 - कित्येक तास चाललेल्या एन्काऊंटरमध्ये तीन दहशतवाद्यांचा खात्मा करण्यात आला. #10 - त्यानंतर कोम्बिंग ऑपरेशन सुरु करण्यात आले, जे बुधवारी देखिल सुरु आहे.


Demonetisation has killed or maimed several asuric forces. Most obvious of them is black economy that has dwarfed the legal economy. Simultaneously, it has corrupted political parties who protect this system at a price The demonetisation of high denomination currency notes is by far the most revolutionary feat of any Government in independent India, from which its opponents and victims are reeling even three weeks after the momentous announcement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the evening of November 8. The move must be assessed in the context of radical actions by his predecessors. Indira Gandhi’s nationalisation of banks and abolition of privy purses affected a miniscule elite; the poor were untouched and the middle class felt more secure with its savings in public sector banks which gave 15 per cent return on deposits, leading to the doubling of household savings in five years. The demonetisation by the Janata Party regime in 1978 impacted only the rich, who quickly managed the transition to currency notes of lesser denominations. As neither the middle class, urban poor, nor rural areas were affected, it grabbed headlines for a day or two and slipped from public memory. Today, however, the poor handle high denomination notes with equanimity. The Reserve Bank of India’s preference for high denomination notes (around 85 per cent of all currency in circulation at the time of demonetisation) made these the standard currency for the middle and more affluent classes. Naturally, Modi’s bombshell announcement shook everyone. It would be unfair to deny the inconvenience and suffering of many across the nation, yet it is undeniable that the majority support the Prime Minister, to the surprise of media persons who hoped to exploit their misery to embarrass the Government. Perhaps the native intelligence of the Indian people has discerned more than the nation-wide Lutyens elite, spawned by the Nehruvian socio-political matrix that has long dominated the public sphere. Demonetisation is the brahmastra (supreme weapon) that has killed or seriously maimed several asuric (demonic) forces tearing into the vitals of the nation. Most obvious is the black economy that has dwarfed the legal economy many times over, and frustrated development goals by denying the State its legitimate taxes. Simultaneously, it has corrupted political parties, politicians, bureaucracy, police, judiciary et al, who protect this perverse system, at a price, which further distorts the system. Often, the media and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) serve as fronts for these interests; this complex matrix is now collapsing in the absence of its most powerful glue — money. This will be a complicated process as those involved will resist being drawn into the white economy (recall the poor compliance with the recent disclosure scheme). Credit Suisse Group AG, the Zurich-based financial services company, asserts that the richest one per cent of Indians own 58.4 per cent of the country’s wealth; the Government has every right to make them pay their taxes. Interestingly, many small traders and shopkeepers have in the past decade moved from fully cash operations to computerising their sales and giving receipts to customers. They, and the urban poor (vegetable and street vendors, etc), bounced back from demonetisation within days and could offer change to customers with the new Rs2,000 notes. That is why the social unrest desired by many aggrieved parties failed to materialise. However, one must in fairness express sympathy for households with a wedding in the family; those who had difficulty in paying school fees and hospital bills, and tourists and travellers who landed in India in the immediate aftermath of demonetisation. The Government was also slow to respond to the needs of the farming community, imposing needless conditions on purchase of seeds. Fortunately, the acreage planted under the Rabi crop has increased 36 per cent. Cynics allege that the Prime Minister was motivated by the forthcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Goa, and has crippled his opponents who would have trouble organising rallies and undertaking election expenses. The Aam Aadmi Party’s near collapse in Punjab and forced withdrawal from the municipal elections in Mumbai supports this theory. But the rage articulated by the Trinamool Congress, with others following suit, shows that the impact is beyond States going to the polls. So far, only the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha have publicly supported demonetisation. But the real losers are the Great Crime Syndicates. Intelligence sources say the ban, smack in the middle of the wedding season, was driven by reports of a heavy infusion of fake currency to fuel terrorism. The timing preempts any precipitate action by the incoming Pakistan Chief of Army Staff. In one scoop, all fake currency stands junked as bank counting machines have scanners to detect faulty notes. In Kashmir, the inability to pay Rs500/day per stone-pelter has ended that menace to the police and security forces. Raids on the NGOs run by Islamist preacher Zakir Naik and allegations of a raid at the premises of separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani show the Centre’s determination to crackdown on the sources of extremism and terrorism. Maoists are equally affected. Worst affected are the drug mafia, hawala agents, extortion mafias, and even human traffickers (especially of young girls). Overall, the underworld has been badly crippled. There is also a large class of affluent urban professionals (one lawyer alone coughed up Rs125 crore in cash during a raid on his premises) which has large incomes outside the tax net. Many in Government service have amassed illicit fortunes. Much of this wealth, if held in cash, may go down the drain, bringing windfall profits to the Reserve Bank of India (we will know after December 30). However, it appears that many have used agents to dump money in Jan Dhan accounts that are suddenly flush with money. These rich people are unlikely to personally know so many persons with Jan Dhan accounts. Only agents could deposit over Rs64,000 crore in empty Jan Dhan accounts (over Rs10,000 crore in Uttar Pradesh alone) so quickly. By sealing these accounts and keeping a sharp eye on the Nepal and North-East India routes, many money laundering channels are being chocked. It was a wise move to close the cooperative bank route to depositing trashed currency, though that is possibly the surest way to bring all black currency into the system, and the Government may take a call on this after the December 30 deadline. Certainly, it must now push formal banks into rural areas, rather than leave villagers at the mercy of cooperatives controlled by political heavyweights. Demonetisation has decapitated a hydra-headed monster. It remains to be seen if it can regenerate itself, and to what extent.

NAG ROTA attack: Army toll reaches 7, loses one more officer, 2 soldiers; kills 3 militants

Nov 29, 2016 16:22 IST Casualty in the Nagrota Army Headquarter attack has risen to seven as two officers and five jawans lost their lives. In two major terror attacks, that rocked Jammu region on Tuesday, seven army personnel, including a Major, were killed and eight other securitymen, including a BSF DIG, were injured, before six heavily-armed terrorists were eliminated in the separate fierce encounters. In one incident, a group of heavily-armed terrorists in police uniform stormed an army unit in Nagrota, very close to the Corps headquarters on the outskirts of Jammu city on Tuesday morning, triggering an intense gunbattle that lasted for hours. Seven army personnel, including two officers, were killed in this attack before three terrorists were killed in an armed stand-off After the initial offensive, a hostage-like situation emerged with almost 12 soldiers, two ladies and two children held captive in a camp in the headquarters. The army successfully freed all the hostages, however, one more officer and two jawans lost their lives during the rescue operation. Security personnel take positions during a gun battle with suspected militants at Army camp at Nagrota. PTI Security personnel take positions during a gun battle with suspected militants at Army camp at Nagrota. PTI However, bravery of the wives of two army officers who were staying in the family quarters helped in averting a major hostage crisis during the encounter. Soon after the heavily armed terrorists disguised in police uniform entered an army unit located within three kms from the headquarters of the 16 Corps, they wanted to enter the family quarters where they could take the families of the soldiers and officers hostage. However, due to the bravery of these two women, who were staying in the family quarters along with their newborns, the plans of the terrorists could not materialise. "The wives of the two army officers, who were on night duty when the encounter broke out, displayed exemplary courage as they blocked the entry of their quarters with all the household items, making it difficult for the terrorists to break into the houses," an army officer privy to the encounter told PTI. On Tuesday, according to a police officer, an unknown number of militants barged into the field regiment camp in the Nagrota cantonment near the headquarters of the Indian Army's 16 Corps in Jammu and Kashmir around 5.30 am. The militants were carrying automatic weapons and explosives and they started firing indiscriminately at the Officers' Mess inside the camp. After around eight hours of heavy exchange of fire, security forces managed to kill three terrorists, however, the number of militants who entered the army premises could not be confirmed. Manish Mehta, Defence PRO, told reporters in Jammu that bodies of three militants were recovered from the premises and combing operations have still not concluded. The combing operations were concluded for the day on nightfall but will resume on Tuesday on daybreak. Mehta also added that the terrorists entered the premises disguised in police uniforms and launched into indiscriminate firing with heavy war-like ammunition. It is instructive to note here that Nagrota is not close to the international border, which raises questions that for how long the terrorists could have been inside the Indian territory. The field regiment camp is located in the garrison town of Nagrota, around one kilometre from the headquarter of Indian Army's 16 Corps in the state — a military formation that acts as a nerve centre to fight militancy and defend the borders in Jammu region. The militants were holed up in the army camp since morning as they exchanged fire with the security forces, killing three jawans and injuring three others in the gunfire, one of them being a young army major. The retaliatory firing by the security forces killed one terrorist in the morning before the terrorists split up and started firing from three ends — the officers' mess, the store and the river front in the camp. "A group of heavily armed militants, believed to be four-to-five in number, attacked the 166 field army regiment camp in Nagrota area of Jammu today [Tuesday] morning," a police officer told IANS. "After entering the camp, the militants fired at the Officers Mess inside the camp. Two militants were killed and three soldiers injured. Other militants are still firing inside the camp," the officer added. According to CNN-News18, the Indian forces killed two other militants in the afternoon after the paramilitary commandoes joined the operations. But it couldn't be confirmed. However, Manish Mehta, Defence PRO refused to confirm the details till the operation was completely over. In the wake of the terror attack on 166 Artillery unit of the army, the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway was closed for traffic in the area and was reopened on Tuesday evening. The district administration has closed all schools in Nagorta tehsil as a precautionary measure. "We have ordered closure of all schools and education institutions in Nagrota tehsil in view of the terror attack," Deputy Commissioner, Jammu, Simrandeep Singh said. The attack came around the same time when an infiltration bid was undergoing near the Chambliyal border outpost in Samba district of Jammu and Kashmir, some 40 km away from Nagrota. However, any connection between the two attacks has not been confirmed as yet. A police officer said security forces engaged a group of infiltrators from Pakistan in a shootout near the International Border. Three militants were killed in the heavy exchange of fire during which an ammunition dump caught flames and exploded, critically injuring at least six border policemen, including an officer of the Deputy Inspector General (DIG) rank, BS Kasana. The six, including Special Operation Group Inspector Sarabjit Singh, were taken to a hospital here, a police officer said, adding their condition was serious. BSF said it detected suspicious movement of three persons late last night and a quick reaction team of the force swung into action, laying cordon in the area. "On realising that they have been trapped, the militants started firing automatic weapons and lobbing grenades on the BSF troops. Unable to move further, the militants got holed up in a nearby tube well hut. Taking advantage of the cover, they kept firing intermittently till the day break. The area was kept under intense surveillance by the troops deployed awaiting day break," the BSF said in a statement. At daybreak, the BSF personnel "made their move and with precise and stable fire, neutralised the three militants quickly," it said, adding one constable Shyamal Ahirwar sustained bullet injury in his wrist. Throughout the morning hours, Pakistan kept firing intermittently to provide cover to the militants, it said. In the ensuing events, BSF's Jammu DIG B S Kasana, Inspector Sarabjit Singh of India Reserve Battalion and constable Vaibhav of BSF sustained injuries, it said. All the injured were immediately evacuated to military hospital and were reported to be stable, the statement said. 18 magazines, 25 live grenades, three IED waist belts, five chain IEDs (used to blow up railway tracks) and a wireless set were recovered from the slain terrorists. "Had BSF not successfully contained and eliminated the terrorists, they could have caused massive damage in the mainland. It was only because of BSF's multi-tier security cover that this calamity was averted effectively," BSF spokesman said. The area is being sanitised. This is the seventh terror attack in the last seven days. The camp is situated close to the headquarters of the Indian Army's 16 Corps — a massive military formation that acts as a nerve centre to fight militancy and defend the borders in the Jammu region. According to reports, it's likely that the army headquarter was the terrorists' main target. According to ANI, Defence minister Manohar Parrikar on Tuesday said that statistics have shown that the terrorists are targetting mostly military establishments and not civilian areas as they seek support from the locals. The security forces have cordoned off the area and all schools Nagrota tehsil remained shut on Tuesday as a precautionary measure. "We have ordered the closure of all schools and education institutions in Nagrota tehsil in view of the terror attack", Deputy Commissioner, Jammu, Simrandeep Singh said. In view of the attack, the Jammu-Srinagar highway, which runs through Nagrota, has been closed for traffic near the town after the security forces cordoned off the area. An alert has been sounded in Jammu city and security has been beefed up in nearby districts including Uddhampur and Katra which is home to the Vaishnodevi temple. Meanwhile, the Congress has criticised the Narendra Modi government, asking it to clairfy its stand on Pakistan, and how the government plans to deal with cross-border terrorism. The two terror incidents in Jammu came on a day Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa took over as Chief of Pakistan Army from Gen Raheel Shareef

पंढरपूरचे कर्नल कुणाल गोसावी काश्मी्रमध्येी शहीद ३५ वर्षीय संभाजी कदम नांदेड जिल्ह्य शहीद

जम्मूड काश्मीीरमधील नागरोटा भागात आज पहाटे साडेपाच वाजता दहशतवादी आणि भारतीय जवानांमध्येम चकमक झाली. दहशतवाद्यांिनी भारतीय सैनिकांवर गोळीबार केला. या गोळीबारात महाराष्ट्रािचे सुपुत्र कर्नल कुणाल गोसावी (वय २७) शहीद झाले. कुणाल गोसावी हे पंढरपूरचे रहिवासी असून ते पंढरपूर अर्बन बँकेचे संचालक मुन्नाह गोसावी यांचे पुत्र आहेत. त्यांाच्यान पश्चाेत आई-वडिल, भाऊ, पत्नीा आणि चार वर्षाची मुलगी आहे. ३५ वर्षीय संभाजी कदम हे नांदेड जिल्ह्यातील लोहा तालुक्यातील जानापुरी गावचे रहिवासी आहेत. नवी दिल्ली | November 29, 2016 3:27 PM नागरोटा येथे दहशतवाद्यांशी लढताना नांदेडच्या संभाजी कदम यांना वीरमरण नागरोटा येथील दहशतवाद्यांच्या हल्ल्यात नांदेडचा जवान शहीद जम्मू काश्मीर येथील नागरोटा येथे दहशतवाद्यांबरोबर लढताना महाराष्ट्रातील संभाजी यशवंत कदम हे शहीद झाले. नागरोटा येथे दहशतवाद्यांनी हल्ला केला होता. त्याला प्रत्युत्तर देताना संभाजी कदम हे शहीद झाले. ३५ वर्षीय संभाजी कदम हे नांदेड जिल्ह्यातील लोहा तालुक्यातील जानापुरी गावचे रहिवासी आहेत. 5 मराठा लाईफ इन्फंट्रीमध्ये -17 RASTRIYA RIFLES संभाजी कदम कार्यरत होते. संभाजी कदम यांना वीरमरण आल्याच्या वृत्ताला नांदेडच्या जिल्हाधिकाऱ्यांनी दुजोरा दिला आहे. संभाजी कदम यांच्या मागे आई, वडील, पत्नी व तीन वर्षांची मुलगी आहे. संभाजी यांना दोन बहिणी असून त्या दोन्हीही विवाहित आहेत. संभाजी कदम यांच्या वीरमरणाची वृत्त गावात येताच सगळीकडे शोककळा पसरली आहे. त्यांचे पार्थिव मंगळवारी रात्री उशिरा किंवा बुधवारी सकाळी नांदेड विमानतळावर येण्याची शक्यता असल्याचे कळते. जम्मू काश्मीरमधील सांबा सेक्टरमध्ये घुसखोरी केलेल्या तीन दहशतवाद्यांना कंठस्नान घालण्यात सीमा सुरक्षा दलाच्या जवानांना यश आले आहे. मंगळवारी पहाटे दहशतवाद्यांनी रामगढ सेक्टरमधून घुसखोरी करण्याचा प्रयत्न केला. त्यानंतर सांबा सेक्टरमध्ये दहशवादी आणि सीमा सुरक्षा दलाच्या जवानांची जोरदार चकमक झाली. यामध्ये तीन जवान जखमी झाल्याची माहिती सूत्रांनी दिली आहे. याशिवाय नागरौटामध्ये घुसलेल्या चार दहशतवाद्यांना टिपण्यातही जवानांना यश आले आहे. सांबा सेक्टरमधील घुसखोरी दरम्यान पहिल्यांदाच चमलियाल परिसरात पाकिस्तानी सैन्याकडून गोळीबार करण्यात आला आहे. चमलियाल भागात बाबा चमलियाल यांची समाधी आहे. पाकिस्तानातील लोकांसाठी बाबा चमलियाल पूजनीय आहेत. त्यामुळेच या भागात पाकिस्तानकडून गोळीबार केला जात नाही. मात्र मंगळवारी पहाटे दहशतवाद्यांनी घुसखोरी केलेली असताना पाकिस्तानी सैन्याकडून गोळीबार करण्यात आला. मध्यरात्रीच्या सुमारास सीमा सुरक्षा दलाच्या जवानांना संशयास्पद हालचाली जाणवल्या. यानंतर जवानांनी हा भाग ताब्यात घेतला. याच सुमारास पाकिस्तानी रेंजर्सकडून भारतीय जवानांच्या दिशेने जोरदार गोळीबर करण्यात आला. दहशतवाद्यांना भारतात घुसखोरी करता यावी, यासाठी पाकिस्तानी सैन्याकडून कवर फायरिंग देण्यात आले. दहशतवादी भारतीय हद्दीत घुसल्यावर सीमा सुरक्षा दलाच्या जवानांनी जोरदार गोळीबार केला. यावेळी दहशतवाद्यांनी एका शेतात आसरा घेत भारतीय जवानांच्या गोळीबाराला प्रत्युत्तर दिले. जवान आणि दहशतवाद्यांमध्ये बराच वेळ चकमक सुरू होती. अखेर तीन दहशतवाद्यांना कंठस्नान घालत सीमा सुरक्षा दलाने ऑपरेशन यशस्वी केले. उरीतील दहशतवादी हल्ल्याला भारताने सर्जिकल स्ट्राइक करुन प्रत्युत्तर दिल्यापासून वारंवार पाकिस्तानकडून शस्त्रसंधीचे उल्लंघन केले जात आहे. दरम्यानच्या काळात अनेकदा दहशतवाद्यांकडून घुसखोरीचे प्रयत्न केले गेले आहेत. दहशतवाद्यांच्या घुसखोरीवेळी पाकिस्तानी सैन्याकडून भारतीय जवानांच्या दिशेने जोरदार गोळीबार केला जातो आहे. दहशतवाद्यांची घुसखोरी यशस्वी व्हावी, यासाठी पाकिस्तानी सैन्याकडून हरतऱ्हेचे प्रयत्न केले जात आहेत. आतापर्यंत पाकिस्तानने तब्बल २५० हून अधिक वेळा शस्त्रसंधीचे उल्लंघन केले आहे.

Monday, 28 November 2016

Now, Modi can turn kala dhan to Jan Dhan November 27, 2016, 12:00 am IST SA Aiyar in Swaminomics

| Economy, India | TOI Will demonetisation be a vote winner or loser for Prime Minister Modi? He has captured the moral high ground: many voters view him as the only politician willing to crack down on black money. He fared well in last week’s byelections. But implementation has been badly bungled, and will hit economic growth for two or more quarters. In a worst-case scenario, this will mean a serious recession. Voters willing to tolerate temporary travails could turn savagely against Modi if a sinking economy crushes employment. Without new reforms, demonetisation cannot kill black money, which will soon boom again. A woman takes rest after feeling unwell while waiting at a currency exchange counter at a bank in Gauhati, India, Friday, Nov. 11, 2016. People queued up outside banks for the second day to exchange currency notes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, delivering one of India's biggest-ever economic upsets, declared that the bulk of Indian currency notes no longer held any value and asked anyone holding those bills to take them to banks to deposit or exchange them. (AP Photo/ Anupam Nath) A woman takes rest after feeling unwell while waiting at a currency exchange counter at a bank in Gauhati, India, Friday, Nov. 11, 2016. People queued up outside banks for the second day to exchange currency notes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, delivering one of India’s biggest-ever economic upsets, declared that the bulk of Indian currency notes no longer held any value and asked anyone holding those bills to take them to banks to deposit or exchange them. (AP Photo/ Anupam Nath) Yet Modi could emerge in total triumph, by combining imaginative accounting, populism and good economic sense. Almost Rs 15 lakh crore of high-value notes have been demonetised. Much of this will legitimately be deposited or exchanged for new currency notes. Many black hoards will be laundered at a discount, using middlemen to get through the bank accounts of the poor. Many people queuing up to exchange notes are being paid to do so. Jan Dhan accounts have suddenly swollen to Rs 64,000 crore. Nevertheless, not all hoarders of high-value notes will be able to exchange or launder them by December-end. Nobody knows how large this un-encashed hoard will be. I suspect it may be 20% of the total, worth Rs 3 lakh crore. In the accounts of the Reserve Bank of India, all outstanding currency notes are listed as its liabilities: the RBI is liable to pay every holder in smaller notes on demand. If Rs 3 lakh crore of notes remain un-encashed at December-end, this implies a corresponding fall in the RBI’s liabilities, giving it a huge windfall. This windfall can be written back into its profit-and-loss account as pure profit. The RBI may want to keep some of the windfall for contingencies. But Modi can demand — and the RBI governor will surely agree — to hand over almost all the Rs 3 lakh crore to the government as a special dividend. What will Modi do with this windfall? He can transfer a whopping Rs 10,000 into each of 250 million Jan Dhan accounts that have been opened since he came to power. This will absorb Rs 2.5 lakh crore, leaving Rs 50,000 crore for other purposes like infrastructure. He could also hold a lottery to distribute part of this Rs 50,000 crore to all other citizens, giving every voter a chance to benefit from the bonanza. Maybe the un-encashed proportion of high-value notes will be only 10%, not 20% as assumed so far. That will mean a lesser bonanza of Rs 1.5 lakh crore. That will still suffice to put Rs 5,000 into every Jan Dhan account, and leave Rs 25,000 crore for other uses. For two years, opposition parties have sneered that Modi has not implemented his election promise to smash black money and distribute it to Indian citizens. But now Modi can fulfil his pledge. He can legitimately say the extinguished notes represent cash clawed back from black money holders, and boast that he is now distributing this to the aam aadmi. Voters will cheer resoundingly. This will be a political triumph. Opposition parties could argue this is not black money brought back from abroad. They could dispute Modi’s creative accounting, or even move the courts. But from a political viewpoint, opposition parties will look silly opposing a plan to benefit hundreds of millions of voters. Regardless of the technical or procedural objections of opposition parties, Modi will triumph politically. Some critics will call this sheer populism. Very true, but so what? It will also represent good policy to rescue the economy from the recessionary trends caused by bungled implementation of demonetisation. Sector after sector of the economy has reported dislocations of transport and value chains, sharp declines in sales, and widespread non-payment of dues. GDP growth will take a significant hit. The situation cries out for a stimulus to revive demand. Putting lakhs of crores into bank accounts of citizens will provide the classical economic remedy of a big demand stimulus. Poor people spend money fastest, so stimulating demand via Jan Dhan accounts will be good policy. The growth shock of bungled demonetisation can soon be offset by a consumer spending boom. What could go wrong? Will the RBI governor say no? Will all outstanding notes get exchanged, leaving zero gain from non-encashment? That’s very unlikely. Watch out for a big Jan Dhan stimulus in the coming budget, maybe sooner

Lashkar desperate for new notes Peerzada Ashiq SRINAGAR: November 27, 2016 00:4

Terror outfit’s logistics and striking capabilities have been hit by demonetisation, say police Almost three weeks after the demonetisation, militants in Kashmir are desperate for new banknotes to pay up their monthly bills, especially those of mobile phones and SIM cards, the police say. The Lashkar-e-Taiba’s attempt to loot the Malpora branch of J&K Bank in Budgam district of Rs. 14 lakh on November 21 is a case in point. “The fact that the conspiracy was hatched by LeT militant Arif Dar, a Pulwama resident, along with foreign terrorists Abu Ali and Abu Ismail, points to the cash crunch hitting the outfit,” Pulwama Senior Superintendent of Police Muhammad Rayeed Bhat told The Hindu. Of the Rs. 14 lakh looted, five LeT sympathisers — who were all arrested — succeeded in getting the new notes for Rs. 3 lakh. “An investigation is underway to find out how Rs. 11 lakh in the old banknotes would have been exchanged by the sympathisers,” a senior police officer said in Budgam. Major expenses According to a police assessment, the militants active in the Valley spend a lot every month on cellphones and SIM cards. “A militant commander or the head of a module keeps changing cellphones and SIM cards. At least two SIM cards are bought a month. Similarly, a cellphone is procured every month and discarded,” said a police officer involved in counter-insurgency operations in Srinagar. On an average, Rs.10,000 is spent every month on gadgets and internet. For 100 active militants, a group needs Rs. 10 lakh a month, the assessment reckons. The other major expenses for militants are couriers, fuel charges and overground workers who ferry weapons from the border areas to the mainland and help in their distribution. According to police records, 150-200 are active in the Kashmir Valley this winter against 100 in the same period last year. The police reckon that the demonetisation may have affected the LeT’s logistics and striking capabilities. Meanwhile, the security agencies have failed to identify any account-holder indulging in money-laundering for militants. “Money-launderers are acting smart. It seems the militant outfits are exploiting the large web of overground workers to buy small properties. They are also laundering money in smaller amounts through a chain of sympathisers and their relatives,” said the counter-insurgency officer

Demonetisation: A Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Game Changer for India By Asian Warrior - November 24, 20160528

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter new-rs-2000-noteOn the 8th of November, 2016, late in the evening Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation and announced that Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes would cease to be legal tender effective midnight of that day in his fight against corruption and black money. In what will go down in history as a masterstroke against not just black money and corruption but much more; the Prime Minister completely surprised and even shocked the citizens and most of his cabinet of the world’s largest democracy. Since the time of assuming office, PM Modi has promised strict action against graft and black money. PM Modi ran a voluntary income disclosure scheme which he called the last chance for tax evaders that brought back over Rs 13,000 crore in 2016 from overseas. Simultaneously, India’s Intelligence Bureau has been on an aggressive breakdown of the infamous hawala network that facilitates the movement of funds in the parallel economy. Hawala is the route through which a majority of India’s unaccounted wealth is transferred overseas and is regularly used by rich businessmen to evade taxes as well as by politicians, the establishment, the political class and other people to store their ill-gotten gains. Needless to say, this has a negative impact on the economy as well as tax collection by the government. Hawala is also the route through which terror financing takes place and is used regularly by ISI. India is the world’s fastest growing economy at $2 trillion. However, its black money economy is about 30 percent of its GDP making it a very significant number. Moreover, the bulk of this parallel economy is monopolised by criminal elements and the politicians that are hand in glove with these unsavoury elements for their political gains. Perhaps one of the most important impacts of demonetization will be on the Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) operating out of Pakistan that has pumped in over Rs 70,000 crore in India. The menace of FICN is so high that as per the Indian Statistical Institute out of 1 million notes in the economy as many as 250 are counterfeit with a minimum of Rs 400 crore in circulation at any point. Moreover, anywhere from Rs 70-100 crore of FICN is injected into the economy every year with the aim to “bleed India by a thousand cuts” out of which only a third is traceable by Indian agencies. As per a report by the RBI, Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes constitute about 85 percent of the notes in circulation, making them the most vulnerable to the FICN racket as well as tools of cash hoarding. It is estimated that fake Rs 1000 notes make up almost 50 percent of the FICN by value. After the surgical strike to avenge Uri, this is another significant step to compel Pakistan to clean up its act. FICN is used as a tool of economic warfare by ISI and nets it a profit upwards of Rs 600 crore annually which is then further used to fund terror activities against India. Moreover, the FICN racket is also useful in diluting the power of the Indian Rupee. The entry points of the FICN are Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, UAE, Thailand and Malaysia and this has created a self-sustaining criminal network in South and Southeast Asia. Considering this counterfeit currency is only in large denomination notes, the demonetisation of these notes has in a single stroke, struck a deadly blow to ISI’s FICN racket leaving its existing stockpile irrelevant and with it it’s vast network of terror funders – the hawala network and money launderers. Moreover, the ISI along with its other partners also funds the Northeast insurgency in India as well as the Maoists which presents a serious internal security situation. Demonetisation has struck a deadly blow to the existing stockpiles of the Naxals as they are now forced to find ways to deposit the money in banks (which is difficult) or lose their entire war chest. Moreover, the blow to ISI’s FICN also means that the Naxals will find it difficult to gain funding to keep their operations going and procure weapons. As per reports, Naxals will be forced to forget over Rs 1500 crore in funds. From the time, the banks have opened to accept cash deposits, huge amounts of money have been deposited in the Gadchiroli District, an area under the Naxalites’ Dandakaranya special zonal committee (DKSZC). This has led to Naxals using foot soldiers, NGO’s and common people as fronts to deposit money on their behalf; making it easier for the security agencies to track down the wolves crawling out of the woodwork. Simultaneously, the ISI-backed separatists in Kashmir have also been severely impacted. The stone pelters against the Indian Army in Kashmir are paid in notes of Rs500 and Rs 1000 by these separatists. With their money also becoming irrelevant, the stone pelters will not take to the streets. We have already elucidated the benefits of demonetisation scheme which helps in countering fake currency, black money and the economic warfare launched by Pakistan against India. However, there is one more critical aspect of demonetisation i.e. crippling of narco-terrorism especially in states of Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and North East India. It is widely known that the Afghan pipeline is used as a funnel to pump in narcotics like heroine grown in Afghanistan through porus borders in Punjab & J&K. A similar pipeline flows into North East India from Myanmar i.e. drugs flowing in from Golden Triangle. The proceeds from narcotics smuggled into India are used to fund Jihad and other terror activities in India. From Maoists in the Red Corridor to the Jihadists on the Indo-Bangla border districts, drugs sales have substantially become the base of funding of terror in India and with demonetisation, all these nefarious activities have come to a grinding halt. We have already discussed on narco-terrorism in detail in our book “The New Global Order”. The New Global Order Book As we have seen demonetisation surgical strike by the Modi government has significant benefits yet there is another side of the story without which it would be unfair to judge the scheme in a wholesome perspective. While demonetisation offers some real tangible gains yet it has its pitfalls on various sections of society given India is predominantly a cash-driven economy. It is estimated that India’s cash economy is worth 14 to 15 trillion $. There is no conclusive estimate of the black money that is prevalent in the parallel economy in India tough Illegal Cash as a proportion of Black Money ranges between 2-5% of the Black Economy which could range between 1.4 lakh crore to 4.5 Lakh crore. Of the 14 lac crore, it is widely estimated nearly 3 Lac crore in Cash will not return for being black money. Hence, nearly 75% of Cash (of 500s & 1000 Rs denomination) is expected to come into banking system which on the other hand would cause significant cash crunch in various sectors in Indian economy like agriculture, daily wage labourers, small & medium term finance industry along with traders and transportation sector majority of whom depend on cash in running their operations. It is necessary to analyse the pitfalls of demonetisation so to enable a more comprehensive response to tackle the loopholes and implementation hurdles being faced in this path-breaking scheme to rid India of ill-gotten wealth. Demonetisation will have a critical impact on various sectors like agriculture where Rabi crop sowing is likely to be hit with the majority of farmers buying seeds and fertilisers in cash of the proceeds they received from the sale of Kharif crop. The Modi government to avert an agrarian crisis after a bumper monsoon reacted to the situation by allowing the farmers in India to buy seeds from state corporations and PSU using old Rs 500 currency notes. This relaxation will go a long way in calming nerves of the rural sector which was in dilemma due to cash crunch following demonetisation. Another sector which is hit by demonetisation is small & medium term finance industry (SMTFI), where small loans are doled to rural households, workers etc for operating small businesses, enterpenural enterprises to sustain a basic livelihood. With sudden demonetisation announcement, this whole sector came to a grinding half making lending as well as repayment of loans in higher denomination extremely difficult. However, the RBI after 2 weeks has finally given a window to SMTFI to repay the loans or interests this quarter with some laxity in rules thereof. The demonetisation drive has also hit wedding season with scores families facing cash crunch ultimately making the government to finally allow an exemption of 2.5 Lacs on certain conditions for such households. It has adversely impacted the tourism industry with aviation industry already report 10% fall in flight occupancy in the first week after demonetisation. The other sectors that have born the collateral damage of the surgical strike on black money are the traders and transportation sectors as well small and medium scale industry. Another vast section of middle & lower middle class in India like traders have borne the brunt of demonetisation with severe cash crunch the consumers have been largely elusive in the market though the after initial panic, calm and crowd have returned back to the markets yet the purchasing power of the public remains limited and only confined to goods of essential commodities or eateries which have recovered from the initial slump. The lack of demand of high-value capital goods especially in small towns and cities have affected the trader community hard many of them even shutting shops for days in Delhi/NCR and elsewhere slowly getting to terms with the new reality. It is estimated that accumulated losses in Mumbai in first 9 days after demonetisation have been running in thousands of crores with retail suffering losses of Rs 3150 Cr, daily wagers suffering a slump of Rs 980 Cr and even octroi loss accounting of Rs 180 cr. The losses to traders in Delhi/NCR would be far greater in number compared to Mumbai and other metros and is likely to significantly impact the politics as traders are the core vote banks of ruling BJP. Apart from traders, another critical sector that has suffered due to cash crunch has been transportation sector of whom nearly 80% depend on cash for running of daily business and transportation which is the lifeline of India and could adversely impact the food supplies across the country. It to be understood here that India is primarily a cash driven economy where a host of goods and services in India are transacted daily in cash which also includes savings by small rural households. It is estimated that India’s cash to GDP ratio is one of the highest in the world with 10.63 % lower than Japan 20.66%, Switzerland 11.76 %, while developed economies like US & UK have much lower ratios of 7.9% and 3.72% of GDP. The penetration of digital economy or the Internet is far from adequate to implement the idea of cashless economy, credit and debit cards or using platforms like PayTM. It is estimated that internet coverage in India is only 36% of the total population of 1.25 Billion, while according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Report non-cash payments in India made up only 22% of all consumer transactions in India in 2015. The report, however, predicts that by 2020 nearly $ 500 billion worth transactions in India will happen digitally. The BCG report also states that nearly 68% of consumers who shop online prefer cash on delivery option being habituated to cash. Further, the RBI Data shows that various banks in India have issued 25.9 million credit cards and 697.2 million debit cards as of July 2016. There has been increased switch to these credit based digital platforms among traders and small vendors after demonetisation, yet its penetration in rural India is woefully inadequate. It is essential that while the drive towards a cashless economy and more transparent one makes sense yet it must be planned thoroughly with getting basic infrastructure first to all parts of India to make sure that the change being heralded by demonetisation is credible and long lasting. Although the push for cashless economy & digital banking is good yet the government needs to make sure it has its digital networks secured from the hacking of the kind that happened a few weeks back where millions of debit card holders accounts were hacked and people lost balance in their account. This will go a long way in making the transition to digital banking more secure and assure. Coming to the implementation part of demonetisation, it is imperative to state that the scale of exercise being attempted is humungous and requires active support from the citizenry. To understand the scale of the challenge one needs to glance through sheer volume of Currency that has been demonetised and is being replaced. It is estimated by RBI that nearly 1571 Cr notes of Rs 500 Denomination and 633 Cr notes of Rs 1000 amounting to 86% of Indian Currency was demonetised. This was bound to create huge liquidity crunch in the Indian economy that would have to be filled up with new notes of Rs 500 denomination and new notes off Rs 2000 denomination. Given the minting capacities of Mysore Press of 300 Cr Notes per months by December Rs 2000 notes could sufficiently fill the gap of Rs 1000 denomination. However, the printing of Rs 500 new currency could take a couple of months longer given the volume and the capacity of the printing press at Nasik & elsewhere. The logistical problems like shortage of currency have caused substantial hardship and inconvenience to the common man who had to stand in queue before banks and ATM’s to get his legal money exchanged or withdraw the same. It has also been alleged that this demonetisation has lead to the death of several people, while it may be true it is need of the hour that the government of the day and politicians at large do not dehumanise the whole exercise of demonetisation. The onus lies on the government to extend a compassionate hand to people who have graciously supported this move despite all the inconvenience for the better good of the country. It is equally important at this critical time that people should avoid stoking classist rhetoric of Rich vs Poor and that being Poor is a virtue or a certificate of honesty and those standing in queue are corrupt. It is time to unite as Indians and lend a hand to Government of the day in making this a success. The challenges the Modi government faces in logistically implementing demonetisation are huge from currency printing to calibrating nearly 2,00,00 ATM machines or managing the spectre of economic contraction lead by falling demand & production owing to a cash crunch. The implementation of this large-scale operation in any democracy has never been attempted, though such operations have earlier failed in countries like Russia, Zimbabwe, Gambia etc. The extrapolation of Currency demonetisation in countries like Russia is not comparable with India as India is far stronger economy than USSR was at the end of the cold war with a closed model and hardly any penetration of digital banking and e-commerce. Yet despite these challenges and inevitable flaws in the implementation of the scheme the Indian government has indeed taken a bold measure to curb black money and root out terror funding as we have already elucidated above. The Govt of India’s campaign has begun to show initial results with nearly Rs 5.5 Lac cores being deposited or exchanged by the public as per the RBI statement on 21st November 2016. It has been estimated that nearly Rs 1.36 lac cores have been withdrawn by the public from ATM or bank branches. However, it has to be stated in all fairness that the cash proportion of black money in India is limited and that majority of black money is stashed in benami property in real estate, bullion (Gold), foreign exchange and tax havens from which its round tripped in form of FDI back into India through shell companies. With sudden demonetisation of 86% of Indian currency aftershocks in various sectors of Indian economy are expected, already people in sectors like real estate, jewellery have taken a big hit following the cash crunch and the Income Tax raids laundering of black money through these channels. While there will be inevitable consequences of an economic contraction in short-term after demonetisation due to fall in demand, production affecting jobs and industries, it is imperative that govt. of the day takes effective remedial measure to contain the contagion effect of the cash crunch in the economy. The govt. could take various steps like reducing the Income Tax on the middle class and lower middle class giving them more purchasing power spurring demand or prodding the banks to ensure more credit is available to small industries at a lower interest rate which could sustain the economic growth cycle with minimal damage. The liquidity that banks in India are likely to achieve could ease the stress that the banking sector was facing giving a boost to the economy. While the few quarters of the economic growth could be subdued yet this demonetisation could ultimately end up benefiting the growth by 1-2 % in long run. This demonetisation, as a result, is also likely to impact Make in India positively. The real estate sector which is a favourite method of hoarding black money may lose its bubble making home prices more affordable. The government is also likely to have a windfall in the tax collection as people will be forced to pay penalties on this unaccounted money that is being deposited as a significant amount of black money will be converted from black to white. This revenue generation along with a boost to the economy is likely to stretch the Rupee’s purchasing power, giving the government more money to deploy for its soft power as well as welfare measures for the poor. Moreover, demonetisation could also result in a systemic cleansing of the electoral process. political parties need black money to fund their election campaigns, buy votes and offer doles. This creates the need for the generation of black money. In the process, political parties are also forced to tie up with nefarious elements to meet their funding needs giving foreign powers and their proxies, a say in the policies of the political parties post attaining power. The rot in the electoral process has been going from bad to worse with large seizures of cash during election times becoming the norm. Thus, in the short to medium term, the political parties that had accumulated stacks of cash for bribing voters are going to feel the heat and this explains the heartache of a majority of political parties in the country. All in all, this move has eliminated several birds with one stone! Does this mean that India is on the way to becoming a cashless economy? The answer to that is in the negative. A bulk of India’s workforce is engaged in agriculture and rural India is still operating heavily in cash. The Modi government has begun the process of reducing the percentage of the cash economy in rural India as well as the blue collar workers and the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana was the first step in this direction along with the linking of these bank accounts with the Adhaar initiative for the transfer of social security. In addition, the health insurance scheme, Atal Pension Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, Mudra Bank for SMES etc offered by the government as well as farmers crop insurance, transfer of LPG subsidy by bank accounts are other significant steps in making the economy stronger and less prone to the generation of black money. These are significant steps but for the generation of black money to completely stop, the government will have to make the cost of holding unaccounted money very high for its citizens. This will necessitate stronger laws to ensure the tax evaders are brought to justice, judicial reforms and an overhaul of the civil service as well to prevent graft. The government could also consider revising the rates of income tax to bring a larger percentage of individuals in the tax paying bracket, removing their incentive to hold unaccounted money. Demonetisation is just one step in the beginning of the fight against black money and corruption, it needs to be followed up with more steps in sectors like real estate, gold and tax havens to curb the menace of black money. It has also to be understood that Narendra Modi’s surgical strike on Black Money has been perfectly timed with the arrival of a Trump Presidency which is likely to be a protectionist one, a likely rate hike by Federal Reserve in near future amid a Chinese slowdown. Thus the liquidity the Indian banking sector achieved by this demonetisation could further insulate the Indian economy from a likely recession or a liquidity crunch which could otherwise be catastrophic. Thus, the demonetisation strike by PM Modi could do down in history as a geopolitical and geoeconomic game changer for India.

Sunday, 27 November 2016

Here’s What These 5 Ex-RBI Governors Have To Say About Modi’s Demonetisation Drive

Arihant Pawariya - November 25, 2016, 2:52 pm Shares 14.6 K 1) Y.V. Reddy who served as the governor of the Reserve Bank Of India from 2003-2008, when economy saw a massive boom, has endorsed the decision taken by the Modi government. Mr. Reddy termed the timing of the move “perfect” as it comes right before the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is all set to be implemented. “ It is a historic moment. There is bound to be paradigm shift in the economic and political system. With the GST on the anvil, the system is ripe for a change. However, to take it forward, contract enforcement and judicial processes will have to play active role. It is impossible to have a big change without some inconvenience and some temporary disruptions. The Economic Times 2) C. Rangarajan served as governor of the RBI in the post-liberalisation era from 1992-1997. He called the demonetisation move a “standard prescription” that was tried in the past, however, he added, that this time the government was targeting those who accumulated money, who issue fake currency and those financing terrorism. Mr. Rangarajan has also called for measures so that black money doesn’t get generated in future. “ The government’s move to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes is a standard prescription in extinguishing unaccounted money. This has been tried in the past. But the government (this time) had three targets: those who accumulated money, who issue fake currency and those financing terrorism, the last two being of different nature. But as far as black money is concerned, this measure is a step towards reducing black money or unaccounted money from the system. It will affect the retail trade as most of the transactions are done using cash. There are some other sectors in the economy like real estate, jewellery where cash has become a major player for transaction. Those will undergo a fundamental change. 3) D. Subbarao, who was at the helm at the RBI post 2008 financial crisis, has said that positives of the current demonetization drive outweighed the negatives. However, he cautioned the RBI against treating the money not returned during the current drive as profit and handing over it to the government. “ If you ride out the short-term pain, the positives will be substantial, be in terms of attracting investments, and also getting people to move from physical cash to electronic transactions. The money being deposited in the banks, as against having it in the pocket, or under the pillow, was good for the economy.Banks will multiply the money when it is with them. It will encourage banks to get lending rates down, even if the RBI does not ease any further…. demonetization will also help improve financial inclusion... banks will be able to give out more credit and all this will have a multiplier effect. Livemint 4) Dr. Raghuram Rajan, the previous RBI governor, hasn’t commented on the current drive. But on an earlier occasion, he had raised doubts about the effectiveness of demonetisation as a way of cleaning the financial system of black money. Rajan had suggested that it is better to focus on making improvements in tracking tax data and ramping up tax administration. “ In the past demonetisation has been thought off as a way of getting black money out of circulation. Because people then have to come and say “how do I have this ten crores in cash sitting in my safe” and they have to explain where they got the money from. It is often cited as a solution. Unfortunately, my sense is the clever find ways around it.They find ways to divide up their hoard in to many smaller pieces. You do find that people who haven’t thought of a way to convert black to white, throw it into the Hundi in some temples. I think there are ways around demonetization. It is not that easy to flush out the black money. The Huffington Post 5) Bimal Jalan, served from 1997-2003, overseeing the transition of the RBI from 20th century to 21st. He has termed the demonetisation drive as positive and good “in terms of what the intention is.” When asked whether the scheme will achieve its purpose, Mr Jalan said that ‘it would take three-four months to see how it works.’ “ It is very positive and good for us in terms of what the intention is. And over a period of time as I think he also mentioned that it will be easy to see what else needs to be done to make it available, make it accessible to the people who do not have bank account and let us hope it works out. The most crucial issue at the moment is how to increase the spread in the banking system that is the most crucial issue. The second related most important issue is that in rural areas or in semi-urban area where there are no banks accounts for the poor or for the agriculturists and, then what is to be done with their notes if they do not have a bank account

Checkmate Chinese footprint with guile Anand Kumar

Increasing Chinese economic activity in South Asia will lead to greater influence. But, India should not get into a debilitating competition. While China is moving according to a well-crafted strategy, India is only reacting. Chinese Checkers: A Pakistani soldier stands guard as a Chinese ship is readied for departure at Gwadar port. Pakistan's top civil and military leaders opened the new route. AP CHINA has been interested in South Asia for quite some time. Initially, this Chinese interest in South Asia was described by some western analysts as the "string of pearls" strategy. Subsequently, a number of Indian analysts also subscribed to this approach. These pearls were supposed to be around India with an objective to harm Indian strategic and security interests. This approach served the western purpose of inciting India against Chinese activities. While the growing Chinese activity in South Asia did cause unease in India, soon it became obvious that South Asia is not the only region where the Chinese are active but the Chinese footprint is growing in every part of the globe. The Chinese objective is not limited to strategically constraining India. China is looking to achieve a global power status and wants the only remaining super power, the US, to acknowledge this by engaging in talks. China seems to have a well-crafted strategy for its global ambitions. Deng Xioping was responsible for the economic transformation of China and to give the slowing Chinese economy another major thrust, China's current president Xi Jinping came out with a new strategy in 2013, One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. This is also known as the Belt Road Initiative. Trade between China and Belt and Road countries exceeded $600 billion in the first eight months of 2016. This was 26 per cent of China's total foreign trade volume during this period. Moreover, the Chinese exports to this region are increasing every year. The initiative intends to bring together countries in Asia, Europe and Africa via overland and maritime networks. Investment and financing of infrastructural projects is a cornerstone of the Belt Road Initiative plan. China is selling the idea that countries can connect their domestic development plans to the Belt and Road in a bid to bolster growth and explore further opportunities. For instance, it wants Bangladesh to align its seventh plan with the 13th plan of China. China has launched a number of economic corridors which are actually part of OBOR. The prominent ones are the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor, the new Eurasia land bridge and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor. CPEC in Pakistan is regarded as the first Chapter of Belt and Road initiative. The Chinese describe it as one plus four cooperative structure. This means CPEC has four components - Gwadar port, transport infrastructure, energy and industrial cooperation. The Gwadar port recently become operational. Now China is trying to get the BCIM corridor moving. To achieve this objective, it has granted $24 billion credit line to Bangladesh, the highest credit line the latter has received from any foreign country. This leaves India's credit line of $2 billion far behind. Bangladesh and Chinese firms also signed trade and investment deals worth $13.6 billion. Bangladesh has been a strong supporter of the BCIM economic corridor. This initiative was earlier known as the Kunming initiative. Bangladesh has also actively participated in the Trans-Himalayan Development Forum - an initiative launched by China last year. Bangladesh sees Chinese funding of projects as a way to break free from the clutches of the low-level equilibrium trap. China is engaged in similar economic activities even in Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives. All these countries have endorsed OBOR. China is moving in a systematic way to fund projects under OBOR. It is developing institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk Road Fund. However, the Chinese funding is not cheap but comes at the rate of 2 to 4 per cent. Despite the high interest rate, the Chinese have somehow managed to persuade these countries to accept loans. OBOR has been couched as the Marshal Plan of China. These projects help the Chinese to invest their surplus foreign exchange reserve and get project contracts for Chinese companies facing the problem of surplus capacities. There is no doubt that increasing Chinese economic activities in South Asia would enhance Chinese influence. Then should India, itself a country with infrastructure deficit, start doing similar projects in these countries. Should India get into a debilitating competition with China? As far as Chinese are concerned, they are acting according to a well-crafted strategy but India is mostly reacting. The Chinese are looking to park their funds for profit and are funding mostly those projects that are part of OBOR. On the other hand, India is funding projects that are of no special significance to it. Moreover, despite India doing some projects in these countries it still can't stop countries from going in for Chinese funding. China is using AIIB to serve its objective. A number of countries, including some of the western countries, don't know why they are into it. Initially, they thought their companies would get some projects if they join AIIB. However, it appears unlikely that they would get project contracts while competing with Chinese companies who have an undue advantage. In a situation like this, it would be much better for India to focus on its own infrastructure development rather than waste scarce resources in counter-balancing China. India's effort should be limited to persuading countries in South Asia from not giving projects to China that can imperil the security of the region. The writer is Associate

Things don’t look good for China By Balbir Punj | Published: 26th November

2016 04:00 AM | The US Congress has come up with a fresh report saying that China is intent on using Pakistan to thwart India at every turn. This is to obtain a unhindered path in the world, especially in the Asian context, adds the report. The report has come at a time when a new American president is taking over — one who will have a nononsense policy towards China and has pledged to assert American leadership globally. Donald Trump has said that the very first day he assumes office as the 45th President of the United States (on January 20), he will scrap the American membership of the Trans Pacific Partnership. TPP was signed in February in view of protecting America’s interests in global trade. The deal also proposed to work with China in cooperation with countries in the Pacific rim, in the backdrop of the South China Sea divide. But those very countries including Japan, Philippines, Vietnam etc. were apprehensive of China’s ambitions as it sought to assert its claims on the Pacific islands. These islands are claimed by as many as seven other countries in Asia. Not many in the US were happy with TPP either. Trump during his election campaign itself had pledged that the US would leave the partnership. China had even proposed a partnership with America, but President Obama rejected it. In his eight years in office, Obama sought to limit China’s ambitions by working with it. He strengthened US ties with the countries in Pacific and Indian oceans. Obama struck an alliance with Japan, India and Australia to keep the maritime trade corridors free, even as China was pursuing the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. Thus the Congress report on US-China relations comes at a time when Trump is setting up a team to take over the US administration. The report has warned that in the last ten years, Chinese influence has spread in and around South Asia — traditionally seen as India’s sphere of influence. Beijing has also sought to build a secure push for itself in the Indian Ocean and block India’s play in that region. This is why it is using a ‘wholly willing’ Pakistan to thwart India’s rise as a challenger to China’s ambitions. It wants to cement its place as the sole leader of Asia. The report, however, also points out that the rise of terrorism is a major threat to China’s security, thus prompting a shift in the country’s strategic calculations. In China’s southern provinces, there has been a significant rise in radicalisation of Muslim minorities. For decades, authoritarian regimes in several Muslim majority states bordering China in Central Asia have kept restive regions under control. The US report terms, “checking India’s rise, primarily exploiting India-Pakistan rivalry” as an important agenda for China. New Delhi clearly sees that Beijing supports Pakistan on all major regional issues. “The overall balance of power between China and India currently is in China’s favour, and Beijing intends to keep it that way. China’s primary mechanism in this regard is its support for Pakistan.” For India, it is no news. New Delhi has seen Beijing backing Pakistan on crucial issues like declaring Masood Azhar as a globally designated terrorist and blocking India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It has harassed Indian businessmen seeking to expand Indian exports to China and has been showing evident hostility to Indian diplomacy in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In addition, China is pushing a $51 billion investment in Pakistan. The Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an initiative to build a rail, road and industrial corridor from its southern provinces through Pakistan occupied Kashmir. It creates a corridor between the new port that China is building at Gwadar in Balochistan and Kashgar in Xinjiang. China is also seeking to oust regimes in Nepal, Maldives, Myanmar and Sri Lanka — governments it thinks could be friendly to India. No doubt, the US Congressional report seeks to show that the threat of terrorism to China is forcing certain changes in Beijing’s South Asian policy that is centred on favouring Pakistan to thwart India. “Counter terrorism has become an increasingly important facet of Beijing’s engagement with South Asia,” the US report claims. The response from India to these developments would be watched keenly. But the Modi government, with its numerous initiatives, has already built strong bonds with all the Southeast Asian nations. Under Prime Minister Modi, India now has a friendly regime in Nepal and Sri Lanka, close relations with Bangladesh and a partnership with Bhutan and Afghanistan. As a counter to CPEC, India is building a port in Iran. Chabahar is being built by India linking Afghanistan, central Asian nations with rich oil and gas fields. The port has a huge deve l opment potential. Whether the Trump administration will join India in all these ventures is to be watched. Right now, the expected protectionist trade moves by the incoming Trump administration could further weaken China which has built a huge fortune by exporting globally, mainly to the US. This is also a time when the growth rate of China has sunk to six per cent. The country’s devalued currency has threatened economic growth thus forcing its migrant population to return to rural areas amidst growing distress. Xi Jinping is certainly not riding the silk road without any challenges. Balbir Punj is former Rajya Sabha member and a Delhi-based commentator on social and political issues Email: Ads by ZINC ×   0 5 0 0

Demonetization: Detailed Drama of How Modi Checkmated Pakistan’s Devastating Assault

Desh Kapoor 9 hours ago India, Pakistan, Terrorism Leave a comment 0 Views All the chairpersons and MDs of India’s top banks were meeting at Reserve Bank of India’s headquarters on the 15th floor of the Mint Street office in a special session that started at 7 pm. In Delhi, on the other hand, the top Cabinet ministers of the Modi government were meeting over an agenda regarding MoUs between India and Japan. None of the top bank chiefs or the ministers of the government were aware of what was to happen. #Demonetization: Detailed Drama of How Modi Checkmated Pakistan's Devastating Assault Click To Tweet . The Cabinet meeting ended at 7.30 pm and the PM went to meet the President to inform him about the plan. The ministers were instructed to remain in the meeting hall. The bankers on the other hand, were discussing the situation from the Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) in the economy. Just before 8 PM, the TV sets were switched on to listen to the PM, with the understanding that the meeting would continue after the PM address. Of course, the announcement from the PM was going to be earth-shattering for most bankers who had to rush back to their offices to handle the situation arising from the ban of Rs 500 and Rs 1000! The story of demonitization starts way back in at least 2010 with a company named De La Rue and its role in fake currency in India. Sometime during 2009-10, the CBI had raided around 70-odd Indian bank branches along the India-Nepal border and found counterfeit currency with them. That sent shock signals all over the intelligent community. Upon investigation, however, the intelligence officials found something even more scary! The branches had received the currency not from some smugglers, but RBI itself! RBI was sending counterfeit notes to the bank branches around the country! When the CBI raided the RBI, it found the same counterfeit currency in the RBI vaults in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. The Central Bank of the country had been compromised beyond anyone’s imagination! The counterfeit and fake currency which Pakistan was pushing into India was being collected and distributed by none other than the Reserve Bank of India! Almost like real… In a little known case involving counterfeit currency caught in UP and Bihar, the defending lawyer rather nonchalantly argued that what was the proof that it was fake? When the currency was sent to the Indian government labs, they indeed confirmed that the currency nabbed from the ISI agents was actually real! When sent to foreign labs, it was found out that the currency was so close to real that it was extremely difficult to prove it being counterfeit. In fact, the small difference that helped them prove it was not real was probably inserted on purpose! Such was the confidence and arrogance of the counterfeiters! It was found by the CBI on further investigation that the mischief was happening at the end of De La Rue, a company from whom RBI imports 95% of its currency paper. In fact, RBI’s buy accounts for over 30% of De La Rue’s profits. At that time, De La Rue was blacklisted by the government and the company came to the point of bankruptcy with 2000 metric tonnes of paper lying unused! At that time, the De La Rue CEO James Hussey – godson of Queen Mother herself – resigned over what was called “paper quality issues”, which sounded fishy to begin with! “We don’t know whether the paper disintegrates under a drop of rain or whether there is just a fly in a roll of paper somewhere,” said one source. “The statement is so full of holes that is has created further suspicion.” De La Rue said the irregularities were of a “serious nature” but that it was “confident that neither the physical security nor the security features incorporated in the paper have been compromised for any customer and that the irregularities referred to relate only to testing of paper specifications at the relevant facility”. Meanwhile, in 2010 another serious security lapse was exposed! Outsourcing of Currency Printing by Government: Height of Betrayal The government had, unbeknownst to anyone, had outsourced the printing of currency notes to US, UK and Germany – amounting to Rs 1 lakh crores!! The entire economic sovereignty of India was at stake! The RBI had in 1997-98 outsourced printing of 2,000 million pieces of Rs 100 notes and 1,600 million pieces of Rs 500 notes to US, UK and Germany amounting to Rs 1 lakh crore. The committee, after questioning central bank officials, said the reasons provided were far from convincing. RBI had said the soilage factor and bad condition of notes resulted in the decision. The panel observed that RBI’s system of assessment with respect to demands and supply of bank notes in the country was off the mark resulting in a gap. (source) The three companies to whom the Indian currency was outsourced were American Banknote Company (USA), Thomas De La Rue (UK) and Giesecke and Devrient Consortium (Germany). On November 3, 2011 a complaint was received by the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) signed by “unnamed officers of the Ministry of Finance” – who said that the security was compromised not just by De La Reu, but also other companies – French firm Arjo Wiggins, Crane AB of USA and Louisenthal, Germany! What is most disturbing is that the information of compromise in security features of the paper for currency had at different times been withheld from the Home and Finance Ministry of India. Following the quality breach by De La Rue, in September-October 2010, the government tested samples of currency paper supplied by other companies as well. On November 3, 2010, BRBNMPL ( Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private Ltd) — which signs currency note contracts on behalf of the RBI — wrote to the Directorate of Currency, Ministry of Finance, that currency paper supplied by Crane AB of USA and Louisenthal, Germany, had failed tests in Hoshangabad as well but cleared re-tests at the suppliers’ foreign laboratories. The complaint notes, “BRBNMPL in their letter of 3rd November 2010, concealed the failure of paper supplied by Arjo Wiggins ( a French company) from the Ministry of Finance as detected in the tests conducted on Arjo Wiggins paper at Hoshangabad”. In 2015, after Modi sought help in investigations in the fake currency notes from the US, it came out that the German company Louisenthal was also selling raw notes to Pakistan, resulting in a ban on the company. The Home Ministry has barred a German company, Louisenthal, from selling bank note paper to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after it discovered that the firm was also selling raw notes to Pakistan, according to a senior official. “We are only keeping our interests in mind,” the official told The Indian Express. “We have proof that high-quality fake Indian currency notes are being produced in Pakistan and pushed into India through Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The availability of a common supplier could be one of the reasons behind such high-quality fake notes.” This is how the Indian currency was compromised at every point – RBI, Home Ministry, Finance ministry, and the Indian and Foreign printing presses. Worse of all, our entire currency production was outsourced to unscrupulous forces who were merrily sharing the real stuff with Pakistan who was happily and arrogantly snubbing us and creating a havoc with our economy! How Pakistan was Check-mated? The free flow of Indian currency paper to Pakistan encouraged its government to set up 5 printing presses to print fake currency notes.these were smuggled to Nepal and Bangladesh (often on PIA flights). The currency entered India via UP and Bihar (Nepal border), via Malda in West Bengal (from Bangladesh), via Rajasthan border, Punjab border and via Chennai and Mangalore through the Indian expats from Gulf. Routes of Fake Currency to India Routes of Fake Currency to India (Courtesy IndiaToday) Pakistan used to pump in money to fund student bodies (like in JNU and Jadhavpur), media and journalists and also political parties to completely influence the elections. The “Imminent” Assault Given the aggression with which the Modi government has acted against Pakistan and given its options against Indian – specifically the Surgical Strikes and the heavy bombardment such that Pakistan had to beg India to stop beating them up! – Pakistan wanted another front for a major strike! As per General GD Bakshi, a prominent security and defense analyst, India has some Rs 16 trillion of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 in circulation (which is 96% of the entire money supply). Pakistan was already printing Rs 15 trillion (Rs 500 / Rs 1000) with a view to push them in India to completely “unhinge” the Indian economy in what Gen Bakshi calls an “Economic Pearl Harbour”! This would have led to unprecedented terror strikes and runaway inflation and steep price rise, which would have spelt doom for India in many ways. On the night of Nov 8th, when the Cabinet Ministers and the top bankers were caught unawares by the announcement of the Indian PM Modi on the ban on the notes – an act in extreme secrecy; all efforts to save Pakistan and its network were thwarted. Pakistan was checkmated. All those whom you see now coming together to fight demonitization know exactly what was being planned and what led to all this. If they still choose to fight this act by the Modi government, you should know exactly from which team they are fighting this existential war of India’s future

Saturday, 26 November 2016

नोटाबंदीमुळे 'अंडरवर्ल्ड' झाले 'अंडरग्राऊंड'

First Published :26-November-2016 : 11:59:58 Last Updated at: 26-November-2016 : 12:48:47 ऑनलाइन लोकमत मुंबई, दि. 26 - नोटाबंदीचा फटका फक्त सर्वसामान्यांना बसला नसून अंडरवर्ल्डचं कंबरडं मोडण्यात सरकारला यश आलं आहे. सुत्रांनी दिलेल्या माहितीनुसार नोटाबंदीमुळे गेल्या काही दिवसांपासून अंडरवर्ल्डच्या हालचाली बंद झाल्या आहेत. मटका, शस्त्रांची तस्करी, सुपारी घेऊन हत्या करणे, चोरी आणि अंमली पदार्थांच्या बाजाराला नोटाबंदीचा फटका बसला असून हवालाच्या मार्फत येणारा पैसाच बंद झाला असल्याचं वृत्त टाईम्स ऑफ इंडियाने दिलं आहे. हवाला किंवा अवैध मार्गाने येणा-या पैशांचा व्यवहार हा काळ्या पैशाचा मुख्य स्त्रोत आहे. अशामध्ये चलनाचा तुटवडा झाल्याने तसंच जुन्या नोटा असल्याने अंडरवर्ल्डची नाकेबंदी झाली आहे. 'गेल्या 20 दिवसांमध्ये खंडणीसाठी एकाही उद्योजकाला अंडरवर्ल्डकडून फोन किंवा धमकी आलेली नाही यावरुन आपण त्यांना किती फटका बसला आहे याचा अंदाज लावू शकतो', असं एका पोलीस अधिका-याने सांगितल आहे. 'मुंबईत शस्त्रांची तस्करी नेहमी होत असते, मात्र गेल्या दोन आठवड्यांमध्ये एकदाही देशी बनावटीच्या शस्त्रांची तस्करी झालेली नाही', अशी माहिती पोलीस अधिका-याने दिली आहे. (गोल्डफिंगर उद्योजकांना नोटाबंदीचा कोट्यवधींचा फटका) (५00 रुपयांत विवाह समारंभ; नोटाबंदीचा परिणाम) 'अंमली पदार्थांच्या तस्करीला नोटाबंदीची छळ लागली आहे. अंमली पदार्थांची तस्करी करणा-यांना ग्राहकच मिळत नसल्याचं कळत आहे. बाजार पुन्हा एकदा स्थिर होण्याची वाट ते पाहत आहेत', असं नार्कोटिक्स नियंत्रण विभागाचे विभागीय संचालक संजय झा यांनी सांगितलं आहे. (नोटाबंदीचा रिअल इस्टेट, वाहन उद्योगावर परिणाम) गुंडांनीदेखील नोटाबंदीचा धसका घेतला असून अटक झाली तर सोडवण्यासाठी वकिल मिळत नाही आहेत. कारण वकिलदेखील फी देताना नव्या नोटा देण्यास सांगत आहेत. 'न्यायालयदेखील जुन्या नोटा स्विकारत नाही आहे, त्यामुळे जामीन मिळण्यात अडचण होत असल्याची', माहिती छोटा राजन गॅगमधील सदस्याच्या वकिलाने दिली आहे. 'हवालामध्ये सहभागी असलेले तात्पुरच्या स्वरुपासाठी मनी चेंजिंग करत आहेत. त्यांनी सोनार, बँकर्स आणि व्यवसायिकांशी हातमिळवणी केली असून जुन्या नोटांच्या बदली नव्या नोटा बदलून घेत आहेत. यासाठी 25 ते 40 टक्के कमिशन देत आहेत', अशी माहिती क्राईम ब्रांच अधिका-याने दिली आहे

ब्रेन ड्रेन’सोबत वेल्थ ड्रेनही-मकरंद देशपांडे

on: November 27, 2016In: रूपगंधNo Comments जागतिकीकरणानंतरच्या काळात भारतात समृद्धीचे वारे वाहू लागले. मात्र या आर्थिक सुबत्तेमुळे भारतातून परदेशांमध्ये उच्च शिक्षणासाठी जाणाऱ्या विद्यार्थ्यांचे प्रमाण वाढले आहे. ओपन डोअर संस्थेने नुकत्याच सादर केलेल्या अहवालानुसार 2015-16 मध्ये अमेरिकी महाविद्यालयांमध्ये प्रवेश घेणाऱ्या भारतीय विद्यार्थ्यांमध्ये 25 टक्‍क्‍यांची वाढ झाली आहे. त्यांनी अमेरिकेच्या अर्थव्यवस्थेमध्ये सुमारे पाच अब्ज रुपयांचे योगदान दिल्याचा अंदाज आहे. त्यामुळे आता ब्रेन ड्रेनसोबत वेल्थ ड्रेनचाही गांभीर्याने विचार करण्याची गरज आहे. भारतातील उच्चशिक्षणाच्या संदर्भात अनेक प्रश्‍न उपस्थित होत आहेत. देशातील अनेक विद्यार्थी मोठ्या संख्येने परदेशात जात आहेत. त्यामुळे भारतातून अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्थेला अब्जावधी डॉलर मिळाले आहेत. अशा वेळी परदेशात जाणाऱ्या विद्यार्थ्यांसाठी देशातच काही आकर्षक पर्याय देता येईल का, याबाबत विचारमंथन सुरू आहे. आज आंतरराष्ट्रीय मानांकनामध्ये पहिल्या 100 संस्थांच्या यादीत भारतीय विद्यापीठांना स्थान मिळवता आलेले नाही. भारतीय शैक्षणिक संस्थांमधून मूलभूत संशोधनाला चालना दिली जात नसल्याची टीका सातत्याने होत आहे. त्याचबरोबर प्रवेशासाठी आरक्षणाचा मुद्दाही उपस्थित केला जातो. चांगले गुण मिळूनदेखील प्रवेश न मिळाल्यामुळे विद्यार्थ्यांमध्ये अस्वस्थता आहे. शिक्षक आणि विद्यार्थ्यांची बिघडत चाललेली स्वयंशिस्त, प्राध्यापक आणि कुलपतींची राजकीय नियुक्‍ती, उच्च शिक्षण संस्थांमधील भ्रष्टाचार यांमुळे या शैक्षणिक संस्था, महाविद्यालये सुमार दर्जाचे पदवीधर निर्माण करण्याचे कारखाने बनत चालले असल्याची टीका होत आहे. या प्रश्‍नांसोबतच आता इतक्‍या मोठ्या प्रमाणात भारतीय विद्यार्थी परदेशी शिक्षणाकडे का वळत आहेत, हाही प्रश्‍न गंभीर रूपाने पुढे आला आहे. इतकेच नव्हे तर या विद्यार्थ्यांसोबत फी आणि शिक्षणावर खर्च होणारा पैसादेखील परदेशांना मिळत आहे. ओपन डोअर संस्थेने नुकत्याच सादर केलेल्या अहवालानुसार 2015-16 मध्ये अमेरिकी महाविद्यालयांमध्ये प्रवेश घेणाऱ्या भारतीय विद्यार्थ्यांमध्ये 25 टक्‍क्‍यांची वाढ झाली आहे. त्यांनी अमेरिकेच्या अर्थव्यवस्थेमध्ये सुमारे पाच अब्ज रुपयांचे योगदान दिल्याचा अंदाज आहे. फक्‍त अमेरिकाच नव्हे तर गेल्या काही वर्षांत युरोप आणि ऑस्ट्रेलियामध्ये जाणाऱ्या विद्यार्थ्यांची संख्या देखील वाढली आहे. 2030 पर्यंत भारतात महाविद्यालयांमध्ये दाखल होणाऱ्या विद्यार्थ्यांची संख्या 14 कोटी इतकी असेल. हा देश जागातील सर्वांत तरुण देश मानला जाईल. मात्र या संभाव्य विद्यार्थ्यांना देशातच थांबवता येईल का, त्यांच्या प्रतिभेचा आणि पात्रतेचा पुरेपूर वापर करुन घेता येईल का हा मोठा प्रश्‍न आहे. परदेशी पदवी विशेषतः अमेरिकी पदवी असल्यास नोकरी मिळणे सोपे जाते ही बाब आपल्याकडच्या विद्यार्थ्यांमध्ये रुजलेली आहे. त्यामुळेच अलीकडील काळात परदेशाकडे विद्यार्थ्यांचा ओढा वाढत आहे. आर्थिक उदारीकरणानंतर मध्यमवर्गीयांची आर्थिक स्थिती सुधारली आहे. त्यांच्या मते भारतीय उच्चशिक्षण व्यवस्थेत फारशा संधी नाहीत. भारतातील ठराविकच विद्यापीठांतील शिक्षणाचा दर्जा चांगला आहे; पण मर्यादित संख्येमुळे तिथे प्रवेश मिळणे अशक्‍य होते. विज्ञान, अभियांत्रिकी, व्यवस्थाप आणि गणित या विषयांच्या अभ्यासाठीच विद्यार्थी परदेशात जातात. भरपूर प्रमाणात मिळणारी सरकारी स्कॉलरशिप आणि अनुदान यामुळे विद्यार्थ्यांना बाहेर जाऊन शिकणे सोपे वाटते. परदेशात जाऊन शिकणे ही सोपी गोष्ट नाही. त्यासाठी बराच खर्च येतो आणि भारतातल्या पालकांची तेवढी ऐपत आता निर्माण झाली आहे असे दिसते. एक प्रकारे मुक्त अर्थव्यवस्थेने निर्माण झालेल्या समृद्धीवर या विद्यार्थ्यांच्या वाढत्या संख्येने नक्‍कीच प्रकाश पडला आहे. सध्या अमेरिकेत 1 लाख 2 हजार भारतीय विद्यार्थी शिक्षण घेतात. त्यात गतवर्षी 30 हजार विद्यार्थ्यांची भर पडली. 1954-55 पासून एकाच वर्षामध्ये विद्यार्थ्यांच्या संख्येत वाढ होण्याचा हा विक्रम मानला जात आहे. साधारण एवढीच वाढ 2001 मध्ये झाली होती. अन्य वर्षांमध्ये ती कधी 5 टक्‍के तर कधी 10 टक्‍के अशी झाली. आता मात्र हा आकडा 25 टक्‍क्‍यांनी वाढला आहे. भारतातून तिकडे जाणाऱ्या विद्यार्थ्यांच्या आवडीनिवडीचा अंदाज घेतला असता असे लक्षात आले आहे की त्यातील बहुसंख्य विद्यार्थी विज्ञान आणि तंत्रज्ञानाचे शिक्षण घेण्यासाठी जात आहेत. म्हणजेच त्यांच्या परदेशी जाऊन शिकण्याच्या वृत्तीचा भारताला फायदाच होणार आहे, असेही म्हणता येऊ शकते. मात्र तरीही मानव संसाधन विकास मंत्रालयाला हा प्रवाह कसा रोखता येईल याची चिंता लागली आहे. कारण त्यामुळे देशाचे खूप मोठे नुकसान होत आहे. “असोचेम’च्या मते, प्रतिभा पलायन रोखण्यासाठी आयआयटी आणि आयआयएमसारख्या अनेक संस्थांची स्थापना करणे गरजेचे आहे. त्याचबरोबर परदेशी विद्यापीठांना भारतातच त्यांची महाविद्यालये सुरू करण्यास परवानगी दिली गेली पाहिजे किंवा त्यांच्या सहयोगाने महाविद्यालये स्थापन केली गेली पाहिजेत. या विद्यापीठांना करांमध्ये सवलती आणि प्रोत्साहन देण्याचाही प्रस्ताव ठेवण्यात आला आहे. दुसऱ्या बाजूला खासगीकरणाच्या समर्थकांच्या मते, शिक्षणासाठी फक्‍त सरकारवर अवलंबून राहणे चांगले नाही. उद्योगांनी अकादामींच्या सहयोगाने नव्या संस्था स्थापन केल्या पाहिजेत. जे विद्यार्थी परदेशात जाऊन भरमसाठ पैसा खर्च करण्यास तयार असतात तोच पैसा ते स्वदेशात चांगल्या दर्जाचे शिक्षण मिळू लागले तर निश्‍चितच खर्च करतील. यामध्ये दुर्बल गटातील विद्यार्थ्यांचा प्रश्‍न उपस्थित होऊ शकतो; परंतु त्यांच्यासाठी अमेरिकेप्रमाणे हमी प्रणाली स्थापन करता येईल. त्यानुसार या विद्यार्थ्यांना तारणाशिवाय स्वस्त कर्ज मिळू शकेल. परदेशात जाण्यासाठी सरकारकडून मिळणारी स्कॉलरशिप आणि अनुदान कमी करण्याचाही एक पर्याय सुचवला जातो. ब्राझीलमध्ये हेच पाऊल उचलण्यात आले होते. त्यानंतर त्या देशातून बाहेरच्या देशांमध्ये शिक्षणासाठी जाणाऱ्या मुलांचे प्रमाण कमी झाले. काहींच्या मते, उच्च शिक्षणाचे सरसकट खासगीकरण झाले पाहिजे. मात्र सर्वांना शिक्षण सर्वांना काम या मूलभूत अधिकाराच्या संविधानिक परिप्रेक्ष्यातून पाहिले तर उच्च शिक्षणाचे क्षेत्र पूर्णतः खासगी क्षेत्राच्या हवाली करणे हा पर्याय असू शकत नाही. यातून पैशाचा गैरव्यवहारही चालू शकतो. त्याऐवजी आज क्रीडाकौशल्यांचा विकास करण्याच्या हेतूने ज्याप्रमाणे विविध लीग उभारण्यात आल्या आहेत, तशाच लीग शिक्षण क्षेत्रातही उभ्या राहिल्या पाहिजेत. उद्योग घराण्यांनी अशा संस्था उभ्या करण्यासाठी पुढाकार घ्यायला हवा. त्याचबरोबर सरकारी संस्थेतील शिक्षणाची गुणवत्ता सुधारण्यासाठी काही ठोस उपाययोजना करणे गरजेचे आहे. –


Approved by whole world. Mr. Modi's move !! *MIND BLOWING RESPONSE FROM INTERNATIONAL MEDIA TO DEMONETIZATION! IT WILL SHUT THE MOUTH OF OPPOSITION!* This is how international media responded to india’s currency ban which shows the impact of this historic decision over world economy and how it is going to stop corruption and black money in india! IMF, European Union, World Bank and every reputed international organisations supported this move, World bank president even said, I am a big fan of Modi! Forbes: Five days after the decision, Forbes has published an article titled “India’s Great Bank Note Switch Appears To Be Working – $30 Billion In Rs Deposited In Banks.” The article notes that a move of this magnitude would result in “obvious chaos”, but points that “so far at least it looks as if it is working.” The article goes on to call the scheme “rather well done, a clever plan.” New York Times: A New York Times quoted an expert saying it was a wise move. “The plan, top secret until Mr. Modi’s announcement, was hailed by financial analysts as bold and potentially transformational for India. It is also a high-stakes experiment,” the article said. Washington Post: It called PM Narendra Modi’s initiative as ‘ambitious’ and in keeping with his election time vow to initiate a crackdown against black money. The Post said black money in India ‘is estimated to total from $400 billion to more than $1 trillion’. The Independent: This Singapore-based paper published a glowing article on the move titled “Modi does a Lee Kuan Yew to stamp out corruption in India.” Lee Kuan Yew was the Singaporean Prime Minister for several decades and is considered the architect of modern Singapore. “Government leaders feel that the sudden move by the Indian Prime Minister has brought new respect for him. Bloomberg: In an article published in leading American financial journal Bloomberg, Swiss global financial services company UBS Group AG said that Australia should follow India’s lead and scrap its biggest bank notes. “Removing large denomination notes in Australia would be good for the economy and good for the banks,” UBS analysts led by Jonathan Mott said in a note to clients on Monday. Benefits would include reduced crime and welfare fraud, increased tax revenue and a “spike” in bank deposits. A senior Indian government official even equated Mr Modi to Singapore’s first Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. From making up his mind to rolling it out on 8 Nov, a new Lee Kuan Yew is born in India. It will be reflected in the legacy of this Prime Minister,”.

Economics of Disruption: Demonetisation Is The Beginning Of Something Big

Rajeev Srinivasan - November 22, 2016, 7:15 pm If it is possible to run the economy electronically it then becomes easier to downsize government, remove some of those positions where bureaucrats wield rent-seeking, discretionary powers. The aftershocks of the demonetisation of 8 November are obviously still reverberating, as there is still a lot of pain for the average citizen. Even if you ignore motivated breast-beating from the usual suspects, which can be discounted, it is likely that many at the bottom of the pyramid are suffering from the liquidity crunch. Much activity has been disrupted. But it is still likely that a majority supports the (laudable) aims behind the move, even though the implementation could have been a lot smoother, especially if there had been a focus on Rs 100 notes, rather than the relatively hard-to-handle Rs 2,000 notes. I too have personally dealt with some pain, standing in moderately long lines, and going futilely from shop to shop trying to get change for a Rs 2,000 note. But something that I heard in one of those bank lines startled me. I was chatting with an old neighbour of mine while in line, and I remarked on the hassle, and he said, “But it’s better than war”. He is a highly educated retiree, and has been through every war from 1948 to 1965 to 1971 to Kargil, and so I take him at face value. This is, in a sense, the Moral Equivalent of War. I’m reluctant to say that because when Jimmy Carter used the phrase, he was pilloried for his timidity, and the fact that the acron ym is MEOW. But we are at war, and the barbarians are inside, outside, and at the gates. War is just about the only thing that brings fractious and centrifugal Indians together: and then we deliver. I too have seen the fortitude of Indians during the 1971 war and the privations it brought us. We suffer; but we survive; and we are ready to sacrifice for the larger interests of the nation. I was reminded of the story I read about an old soldier, all of whose three sons have been killed in battle, the youngest just last month, and how even in his grief, he didn’t waver in his love for his country. That is how we are, those outside the charmed circles of the blasé Lutyens crowd who have no time for such old-fashioned ideas such as patriotism, but who owe their wealth and their livelihoods to the simple faith of such people. The Lutyens types have cynically fed us a mythology that they, the benevolent, would bring us the Millennium, the City on the Hill, and we have been misled by their siren song. Instead, all they have given us is misgovernance, corruption, and wholesale national failure. But we have tolerated them all these years. This tolerance of the Indian public is a wonder, but it is beginning to come to an end, as a young and aggressive population is beginning to ask why it is that every country is bypassing us. They are finding answers on social media: the Indian #deepstate of the JNU-media-Dynasty-crony capitalism variety is finally being laid bare in all its nakedness: these are thieves, hypocrites, amoral sociopaths. And then comes Prime Minister Narendra Modi with an appeal to the public, going over the heads of the gatekeeper media: he acknowledges that there will be pain. But he asks them to suffer the pain for just 50 days, and by and large, the public is responding. In a way this is like that old imperialist Churchill promising his countrymen nothing but “blood, toil, tears and sweat”. And the Brits responded. Similarly, I get the feeling that Indians are responding to Modi. We’re willing, within limits, to “[take] one for the Gipper”, to use a Reaganesque phrase. This has startled the Western media. Except for the fringe types, even hardened anti-India campaigners such as The Economist and The Financial Times have been circumspect in their coverage. One of them wondered that “there has been no violence”. Yes, in the West there probably would have been blood on the streets, as we saw in London a couple of years ago, and in the US, during the Rodney King protests of a while ago. The journos couldn’t believe that such a radical change had gone without bloodshed. But they mustn’t judge us by their own standards: there is Indian Exceptionalism. We are not like them. The other reason the Westerners were hedging (I read Kenneth Rogoff’s noncommittal comment too) is that this exercise is so mammoth, so unprecedented, so audacious that nobody knows what the outcome will be. It is like a Manhattan Project to make the atomic bomb, or Kennedy’s celebrated ‘Man-on-the-moon’ project. They would not dare try something like this in their economies today. But we can, because complexity is our métier. We can organise an immense exercise like the Kumbha Mela, although we cannot stand in line at a railway counter. And this is not a one-off, whimsical act as some of the polemicists in India claim. There is a context: first, the JAM trinity for financial inclusion: Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar, and mobile. Second, the voluntary disclosure scheme for unreported income that ended in September and saw the declaration of some Rs 65,000 crore. Third, demonetisation. And fourth, yet to come, Goods and Service Tax (GST). If you put all these together, it is a revolution, and a disruption, a point of inflexion, the beginning of something big. You have the possibility of bringing out into the open the 25 per cent of the economy that has been under-reported, untaxed and secreted under mattresses. This itself will improve efficiency and circulation as the funds can be recycled by banks (though hopefully not in the way they funded crony capitalists in the good old UPA1 and UPA2 days). Not to mention the increased tax revenues. But more than that, it is a tsunami that should enable India to leapfrog a generation of fintech. With the UPI (Universal Payment Interface) that has been rolled out, it has become possible to move anybody with a smartphone to make e-payments. UPI allows anyone to transfer funds or make merchant payments securely, with 2-factor authentication, without having to reveal their bank routing code or account number, but by simply using an alias such as suresh27@hdfcbank: easy to remember. This is not an e-wallet: transactions are happening in your real bank account, but it’s much easier than registering a payee and so on. If I understand correctly, this is similar to M-Pesa (except that is a mobile wallet) in that it allows for very small transactions (say, Rs 10) with no transaction fee at all, and it can happen 24x7 using the IMPS (Immediate Payment Sevice) interface that already exists. If this can be done seamlessly and with guaranteed security, then India would have leapfrogged from cash directly to e-payments in one fell swoop, avoiding the intermediate stages of cheques and credit cards. Just as we leapt from landline to cellular without laying all the expensive copper wire, this would mean we have suddenly become the largest electronic money economy in the world, as our scale is virtually unmatched. This will have significant benefits in lowered transaction costs as well as an audit trail: it makes large-scale corruption harder to pull off, because you never know what the computer is storing away and when the Enforcement Directorate will come down on you like a tonne of bricks. Now add the next shoe to drop, so to speak, as GST kicks in, and hopefully makes our physical infrastructure also less cumbersome. Suddenly, the mile-long queues at state checkpoints disappear, and it no longer takes a week to ship goods from your factory to the nearest port. Efficiency again. The sum of all this can transform the Indian economy. If it is possible to run the economy electronically (assuming there’s sufficient cybersecurity so that our friendly neighbourhood snoops aren’t sucking all our data out) it then becomes easier to downsize government, remove some of those positions where bureaucrats wield rent-seeking, discretionary powers. Black money generation will diminish. Corruption and black money will never go away entirely. They will be with us always, like death and taxes. But their effect on the real economy can be reduced. And that would also lead to a reduction in the power of politicians to act in arbitrary ways: whatever they do would lead to an audit trail in the money flow. An analogy is the railway reservation system: the moment it was automated, the entire class of intermediary touts disappeared, because frankly, people are scared of what computers may know about them. It deters them. It is a huge disruption, in the normal sense of the term. In terms of Clayton Christensen’s disruptive innovation, “incumbent”, i.e. Lutyens-type babus and netas are being replaced by the “insurgent”. Prime Minister’s ideas that are turning the incumbents’ world upside down. The consumers of their efforts, the public, that had remained quiescent despite the widespread loot of their money by the incumbents, will simply switch to the better offering from the insurgent. Christensen’s idea of the “failure of leading firms” predicts precisely this: the complacent incumbent will be blindsided by the insurgent, who has no customer base to lose, but has a superior product. This happened in the 2014 election, and we all know what happened: the customer base switched to the insurgent. Thus, I believe the Prime Minister can pull this gargantuan effort off, with our support. He has no choice, really: this is one of those things where you can’t make a graceful U-turn; the train is moving, and you can’t stop it or get off it. And given his character, once he makes up his mind, it is unlikely he’ll change it. Thus, like it or not, demonetisation is a reality, and although we will not know the full results for a while, I think it is a tremendous step forward, coupled with the other steps I mentioned. There will be pain: GDP may shrink by as much as a point, says HSBC, but the upside is high. At a time when China is slowing, and many are nervous about Donald Trump’s intentions, this move by India could not be more brave or intrepid. It is a risk-the-mandate bet, and I believe it will work, and that it is the beginning of a new, cleaner, more assertive India