For Bangladesh watchers in India, the results of the general elections in Bangladesh would be on expected lines, especially given that the main political party, the Awami League, was banned from contesting. However, this reality was not without anxiety for India. The prospect of an inexperienced political dispensation in Dhaka would have hammered another nail into the dying relations between the two neighbours. There is no doubt that relations between India and Bangladesh hit a nadir during Mohammad Yunus’s interim government. A fact acknowledged by the Caretaker government, too. For now, the situation has come to pass, and the election results indicate that the Bangladeshi people have spoken. They have given the BNP a resounding mandate, as it has secured 212 of 300 parliamentary seats, thereby securing an absolute majority. Their new leader, Tarique Rahman, the son of Zia-ur-Rehman, the former dictator, and Khaleda Zia, the ex-Prime Minister (PM) of Bangladesh, is set to be the next PM of the 175 million-strong nation. The concern for India is whether relations between the two countries will improve or whether they will see another low period.
Since the removal of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh through a student-led movement, the situation in Bangladesh has caused great concern in New Delhi. Sheikh Hasina ruled Bangladesh since 2009 as the longest-serving PM. A period in which she grew from a democratically elected leader into an intolerant despot. During the final phase of her rule, she became increasingly intolerant and even more unpopular. The Indian government failed to caution Sheikh Hasina, or they could not see the tide turning against her. The latter is most unlikely. Her escape from Bangladesh and subsequent relocation to India have created many existential problems for India since then. She is awaiting a death penalty in Bangladesh, and hence the Yunus government and even the new dispensation are likely to clamour for her extradition.
Tarique Rahman’s first challenge in office would be to balance the act of political and regional stability in Bangladesh. His party’s absolute majority in parliament is a great relief, as the friction of coalition politics would have strewn many a thorn in his path to governance. The history of Bangladesh since its independence has been bloody with assassinations and coups. The father of the nation, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, was assassinated within four years of the country gaining independence. His successor, General Zia-ur-Rehman, while never convicted of complicity in Sheikh Mujib’s assassination, was widely believed to be the mastermind by the Awami League party cadres. This perception was the chief reason for the animosity between the Awami League and the BNP leadership. While Mujib’s daughter, Sheikh Hasina, led the Awami League after her father’s death, Begum Khaleda Zia, the shy wife of Gen Zia-ur-Rehman, had to provide leadership for BNP. The two women became bitter rivals, and Bangladeshi politics was marred by a fierce contest between the two parties. India backed Sheikh Hasina in the hope that she would provide the best hope for furthering India’s interests in the region. The faith reposed was not belied either. Yet even during Khaleda Zia’s rule, India and Bangladesh maintained transactional yet peaceful relations. The fundamental difference, as viewed through the Indian lens, between the two parties lay in their beliefs about core values. While the Awami League was secular in its outlook, the BNP shaped an Islamist identity for Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Jamat-i-Islami party, which supported the Pakistani Military during the 1971 war of liberation, was banned by Sheikh Mujibur in Bangladesh. Zia-ur-Rehman lifted the ban. The Jamat has become the fundamentalist element in Bangladesh and is now the biggest beneficiary of elections there. The February 12th election is their best showing to date, getting 68 seats in the 300-seat parliament.
Tarique Rehaman has been in exile in the UK for the past 17 years. He left Bangladesh for medical treatment and never returned till Mohammad Yusnus took the reins. The Sheikh Hasina government had alleged that he was involved in money laundering, extortion, and a grenade attack. He will have to overcome his desire for a vendetta against the Awami League and start afresh. The Awami League is banned in Bangladesh as a political party; more than anyone, he will know that without a strong opposition, Bangladesh’s politics will always remain a boiling cauldron. One has to weigh the India-Bangladesh relations in light of the above reality. India had put its eggs in one basket: Sheikh Hasina. Yet New Delhi has come to realise that it must acknowledge the new political reality of its neighbour. Yunus Mohammad, the chief advisor to the interim government’s era, has come to pass. A new dawn appears on the horizon. India has done well to send the right signals to the new leader, Tarique Rehman. India’s External Affairs Minister travelled to Bangladesh to attend the last rites of Begum Khaleda Zia and handed over a personal letter of condolence from the Indian PM to Tarique Rehman. More recently, PM Narendra Modi was the first leader to congratulate the BNP leader’s astounding success. He has signalled India’s willingness to recognise him as the new leader and to do business with him.
What is at Stake
Bangladesh is part of India’s dispute with its two most bitter adversaries: Pakistan and China. Since the deposition of Sheikh Hasina, Pakistan has made deep inroads into the military and civilian apparatus of the Bangladesh government. ISI, it is said, is once again active in Bangladesh. Pakistan’s recent boycott of the T20 World Cup in India-Srilanka is a bid to make political inroads into Bangladesh. Without a doubt, the Mohammad Yunus dispensation showed keen interest in renewing their ties with Pakistan at the cost of animosity with India. It appeared to be a deliberate ploy, and it succeeded in damaging Bangladesh- India ties. Pakistan has the ability to reactivate the terrorist outfits banned by Sheikh Hasina’s government in India’s North East (NE). Such a development is music to ISI’s ears. Opening another front in the east to hurt India would serve Pakistan’s strategic interests. And grieving in the recent OP Sindoor losses, it would be a balm for the strained nerves of the Pakistani Military. The second adversary: China has stronger reasons for its strategic relationship with Bangladesh. First, it strengthens the String of Pearls strategy as China seeks to establish a facility at Mongla Port (Bangladesh’s second-largest port) in Bangladesh. Like Sri Lanka, the intent would be strategic and military in the long term. China also hopes to gain a foothold in the Bangladesh economy by extending loans and investing in infrastructure development. For India, both developments will run counter to its national interests.
Tarique Rahaman had made a certain announcement in anticipation of his party’s victory. Among the chief observations of India is that Bangladesh's future foreign policy stance should prioritise Bangladesh's interests. His intention is to keep his country equidistant from the influence of China and India and to make national interests the primary focus of international relations. Second, while accepting Bangladesh as a Islamist nation, he does not wish to differentiate its citizens based on religion. There will be no minority or majority, all will be Bangladeshis, he claims. Under his government, he has promised to further the 31-point reforms enunciated by his mother to modernise Bangladesh. These encompass digitising Bangladesh’s governance, reducing corruption by 60%, and related objectives. His public declaration must be viewed as a positive sign by the Indian government. He appears to be conveying a message that is more India-friendly than his mother’s. However, for relations to improve, it is not only Bangladesh that must mend its ways; India, too, must go a long way in addressing the anti-Bangladesh sentiment that runs through the country. The ban on Mushtaqur Rehman, the Kolkata Night Rider IPL player, in the 2026 IPL may have initiated a vicious cycle that led to the complete breakdown of the relationship. His reinstatement may reverse it, too. Hindu groups clamouring for Bangladeshi blood at every occasion when a Hindu death comes to light, through the media, have to stop. The government must act decisively and stop groups from making irresponsible statements which are exploited by anti-India groups in Bangladesh. Many news reporters who have travelled to Bangladesh have opined that a common Bangladeshi is unlike what is being portrayed in the media, a Hindu hater. They continue to hope for better relations with India. Tarique Rehaman, the BNP leader, can prove these journalists right by curbing all anti-India protests in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is the second-largest garment manufacturer in the world. In this industry, India exports 80% of its cotton to Bangladesh. In a 14 billion US$ trade between India and Bangladesh, India has a 10 billion US$ trade surplus. This surplus shows Bangladesh’s dependence on Indian goods. Something which cannot be easily replaced by either China or Pakistan. Bangladesh would do well to recognise this dependence and create a mutually beneficial situation rather than ruin it. Over the last year, the Bangladesh economy has come under strain due to political uncertainty. The new PM would be seized of this shortcoming even before he assumes office. It is thus prudent to prioritise ‘Bangladesh First’ in governance. All other issues, such as the Teesta River water dispute, can be addressed later. For India, Tarique Rehman is no longer a threat but an opportunity, as its relations cannot sink to another nadir. They are only to rise from here. Only time will tell whether the BNP under Tarique Rehman will lead Bangladesh on a path of growth and fulfil the election promises of millions of Bangladeshis. India would hope that he shows the maturity to bury the hatchet and move forward.
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