China’s strategy in the South
China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia is a masterclass in "Salami
Slicing"—achieving strategic goals through small, incremental steps
that individually don't justify a war but collectively change the map.
These actions fall into two
overlapping categories: Grey Zone Warfare (coercive actions that stay
below the threshold of open conflict) and Hybrid Warfare (blending
conventional, unconventional, and cyber tools).
1. Core Methods of Chinese
Warfare
China uses a "Cabbage
Strategy"—wrapping a contested area in layers of civilian, paramilitary,
and military vessels to squeeze out opponents.
- The Maritime Militia (The "Blue Men"): Thousands of fishing
vessels that are actually state-funded and militarily trained. They
"swarm" reefs to prevent other countries from fishing or
patrolling.
- Lawfare (Legal Warfare): China uses its domestic
laws (like the 2021 Coast Guard Law) to "authorize" the use of
force in waters it claims, effectively trying to rewrite international law
(UNCLOS) through domestic decree.
- Cognitive & Information Warfare: Using state media and
social media "troll armies" to spread narratives that depict
China as the victim and Southeast Asian nations as
"provocateurs" backed by the West.
- Economic Coercion: Using trade as a weapon. For example,
blocking fruit imports from the Philippines or restricting tourism to
countries that oppose its maritime claims.
2. Country-Wise Analysis
& Countermeasures
The Philippines
The Philippines is currently
the "ground zero" for China’s grey zone tactics, particularly at Second
Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.
- Tactics Used: High-pressure water cannons, military-grade
lasers to blind sailors, ramming Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) wooden
boats, and blockading resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre.
- The Counter-Strategy: "Transparency
Initiative":
- Publicity: The Philippines now embeds journalists on
resupply missions to film Chinese aggression in 4K. This
"shaming" tactic ruins China's narrative of being a
"peaceful riser."
- Alliances: Manila has revitalized its defense treaty
with the U.S. and signed new "Visiting Forces Agreements" with
Japan (JAPHUS) and Australia.
Vietnam
Vietnam faces constant
pressure over oil and gas exploration in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
- Tactics Used: China deploys survey ships (like the Haiyang
Dizhi) accompanied by massive escorts to disrupt Vietnamese drilling
rigs. They also use "cabling" (cutting the seismic cables of
Vietnamese ships).
- The Counter-Strategy: "Three Noes" Policy
& Hardening:
- Strategic Autonomy: Vietnam avoids formal
alliances but builds a "stealth" deterrent with Kilo-class
submarines and coastal missile batteries.
- Diversification: They partner with
Russian, Japanese, and Indian oil companies, making it diplomatically
"expensive" for China to harass these international projects.
Indonesia
While Indonesia is not a
claimant to the Spratly Islands, China’s "Nine-Dash Line" overlaps
with Indonesia’s Natuna Islands gas fields.
- Tactics Used: Massive fishing swarms protected by the
China Coast Guard (CCG) to normalize Chinese presence in Indonesian
waters.
- The Counter-Strategy: "Sovereignty
Assertiveness":
- Renaming: Indonesia officially renamed the area the
"North Natuna Sea" to assert legal ownership.
- Military Presence: Jakarta moved its
Combat Command headquarters to the Natunas and regularly conducts
large-scale "Sovereignty" drills involving all military
branches.
Taiwan
Taiwan faces the most intense
"Hybrid" pressure, blending maritime incursions with massive
cyber-attacks.
- Tactics Used: Constant "ADIZ" (Air Defense
Identification Zone) incursions to wear out Taiwan’s pilots and equipment,
plus massive disinformation campaigns during elections.
- The Counter-Strategy: "Asymmetric
Warfare":
- Resilience: Developing
"indigenous" submarines and mobile missile launchers that are
hard for China to target.
- Digital Defense: Taiwan has one of the
world's most sophisticated fact-checking ecosystems to combat CCP
disinformation in real-time.
3. Summary of Regional
Countermeasures
|
Method |
Target Countries |
Primary Countermeasure |
|
Maritime Swarming |
Philippines, Vietnam |
Coast Guard modernization
& transparency (filming incidents). |
|
Cyber Espionage |
All ASEAN countries |
Strengthening regional
cyber-defense frameworks & AI monitoring. |
|
Economic Coercion |
Philippines, Malaysia |
Diversifying trade partners
(reducing "China-dependence"). |
|
Island Building |
All Claimants |
U.S.-led Freedom of
Navigation Operations (FONOPs). |
Strategic Insight: The most effective counter
to Grey Zone warfare is "Light"—shining a spotlight on these
sub-threshold actions so they are no longer "grey" but clearly
visible as acts of aggression to the international community.
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