A Miscalculated Assessment of Power
In early 2022, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine seemed
imminent, U.S. intelligence officials were so certain of a swift Russian
victory that they preemptively evacuated the U.S. embassy in Kyiv. This
prediction was based on traditional power metrics: Russia, with its
fifth-largest defense budget globally, appeared overwhelming compared to
Ukraine, ranked 36th, behind countries like Thailand and Belgium. Yet, over two
years later, the conflict drags on with no decisive outcome.
Ukraine's Unexpected Resilience
Ukraine’s resilience underscores that power is not solely
about traditional military might. A highly educated population and a robust
technology innovation ecosystem have allowed Ukraine to produce drones and
other improvised weapons swiftly. Remarkably, Ukraine has even managed to wage
naval warfare without a formal navy, using homemade drones to destroy nearly
two dozen Russian ships and disrupt Russia's control of the Black Sea.
The Shift from Tangible to Intangible Power
Historically, national power was rooted in tangible
resources—populations, territories, and militaries that governments could
directly control. Spain in the sixteenth century, the United Kingdom in the
nineteenth century, and the United States and the Soviet Union in the twentieth
century all derived power from such resources. However, in today’s world, power
increasingly stems from intangible assets like knowledge and technologies,
including artificial intelligence, that fuel economic growth, scientific advancements,
and military capabilities. These intangible assets are hard for governments to
control and can easily spread across borders and sectors.
The Challenge of Managing Intangible Resources
Intangible resources, often developed in the private sector
or academia, pose unique challenges for governments. Unlike tangible assets,
knowledge cannot be easily reclaimed once it is "in the wild." For
example, U.S. officials cannot demand the return of an algorithm or the
knowledge a Chinese bioengineer gained during postdoctoral research in the
United States. The portability and influence of knowledge make it a powerful
weapon in modern geopolitics.
The Growing Influence of the Private Sector
The private sector's influence on global affairs complicates
the U.S. government's ability to manage these intangible assets. Private
companies now play a crucial role in shaping geopolitical outcomes, often with
interests that do not align with national objectives. For instance, Meta, the
parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, significantly influences
global information by determining what is deemed truthful for billions of
users. Additionally, American CEOs with business interests in China have met
with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as frequently as U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken, highlighting the private sector's diplomatic influence. Furthermore,
Elon Musk's control over the Starlink satellite network allowed him to dictate
Ukrainian military communications during the conflict with Russia.
Deteriorating U.S. Government Capabilities
As the private sector's influence grows, the U.S.
government's traditional foreign policy tools are weakening. The confirmation
process for presidential appointments has become so contentious that key
foreign policy positions remain unfilled for extended periods. Spiraling
federal debt has led to the U.S. spending more on interest payments than on
defense for the first time in history. Additionally, Congress's inability to
pass annual budgets has resulted in stopgap measures that stifle innovation by
funding only existing programs, preventing new research and development
initiatives from taking off. This situation disproportionately affects small,
innovative companies, allowing outdated, costly weapons systems to persist
while cheaper, more effective solutions are neglected. If China were to design
a system to stifle American innovation and defense capabilities, it would
closely resemble the current U.S. budget process.
The Decline of U.S. Educational and Research Institutions
Crucially, the health of the U.S. K–12 education system and
research universities—key sources of the country's long-term innovation—are in
decline. In a world where knowledge and technology are paramount, this decline
poses a significant threat to the U.S.'s future prosperity and security.
Rethinking U.S. Power in the Modern World
In today’s knowledge- and technology-driven world, U.S.
policymakers must rethink what constitutes national power, how to develop it,
and how to deploy it effectively. The focus should shift from merely preventing
adversaries from acquiring U.S. technologies to strengthening the country’s
educational and research capacity and harnessing emerging technologies to serve
the national interest. Future prosperity and security depend on adapting to
this new landscape where knowledge is the ultimate source of power
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