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Tuesday, 27 August 2024

Innovate and Anticipate: The New Pillars of U.S. Power

 

The Evolving Nature of Power

For decades, U.S. policymakers have relied on a mix of hard and soft power to influence both adversaries and allies. Hard power, rooted in military strength, was used to protect friends and deter or defeat enemies. Soft power, on the other hand, involved promoting U.S. values to attract others to the American cause. While both forms of power remain important, they no longer determine a country's success as they once did. Today, the United States must focus on expanding its "knowledge power"—the ability to advance national interests through the generation of transformational technology.

The Dual Components of Knowledge Power

Knowledge power consists of two crucial elements: innovation and anticipation. Innovation refers to a nation's capacity to produce and leverage technological breakthroughs. Anticipation involves intelligence—understanding the intentions and capabilities of foreign adversaries that might threaten U.S. interests. Traditionally, this has been the domain of U.S. spy agencies. However, as the line between domestic industry and foreign policy blurs, intelligence agencies must also help the government grasp the implications of technologies developed domestically.

Looking Inward: The Domestic Focus of Knowledge Power

Unlike traditional foreign policy tools that focus outward—using threats, force, and values to influence foreign actors—knowledge power requires the U.S. to look inward. It involves harnessing ideas, talent, and technology to ensure that the United States and its allies thrive, regardless of the actions of China or other adversaries. The strength of this power lies not just in bolstering military capabilities or enhancing global appeal but in building a robust foundation at home.

Educational Proficiency: The Foundation of Innovation

The first step in building knowledge power is improving national educational proficiency. A well-educated workforce is a key driver of long-term economic growth. Historical evidence supports this: in 1960, East Asia's GDP per capita was nearly equal to that of sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, over the next 30 years, East Asia surged ahead, largely due to significant improvements in education.

Concentration of Talent: A Catalyst for Breakthroughs

Another critical indicator of knowledge power is the geographic concentration of technological talent. Countries with clusters of leading scientists and engineers are more likely to make critical advancements. Proximity matters—having the world's top minds working closely together in labs fosters the environment necessary for technological breakthroughs. This is why top scientists recruit superstar teams and collaborate in physical spaces rather than working in isolation.

The Role of Research Universities in Innovation

The long-term power of a nation also depends on the health of its research universities. While companies play a vital role in technological innovation, the process often begins much earlier—in university labs and classrooms. Unlike companies, which must focus on near-term commercial prospects, research universities are free to explore basic research, which delves into questions on the frontiers of knowledge. Although basic research may take decades to yield practical applications, it is the bedrock of many commercial breakthroughs, such as radar, GPS, and the Internet.

The Hidden Foundations of Technological Success

Recent advancements, such as mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, may appear to be overnight successes, but they are built on decades of basic research conducted at universities. Before pharmaceutical companies could develop these vaccines, academic researchers had spent years discovering that mRNA could activate and block protein cells and learning how to deliver it to human cells to trigger an immune response. Similarly, the cryptographic algorithms that secure data on the Internet today originated from years of academic research in pure mathematics. Many of the latest advances in AI, from ChatGPT to image recognition, are also rooted in pioneering work conducted at institutions like the University of Toronto, the University of Montreal, and Stanford University.

Conclusion: Building a Future on Knowledge Power

To maintain its global leadership, the United States must shift its focus to nurturing and expanding its knowledge power. By fostering innovation and enhancing its ability to anticipate technological and geopolitical trends, the U.S. can secure its future prosperity and security. This requires a deep investment in education, research, and the strategic concentration of talent, ensuring that the country remains at the forefront of technological advancement

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