The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the top man of Hamas in Iran, has come as a shock. The consequences of such an action sends a shiver down the spine of observers of the region. Killing a state guest of honour in a country is not only a slap on the face of the regime of Iran but also mocking the supporters of Hamas and the Islamic world. Why was Ismail Haniyeh targeted before Yayah Sinwar? Does his assassination serve any purpose in the Gaza conflict? What would the future of Hostage negotiations be? Was the US involved? All these questions and more haunt a reader. Some of them have answered in the piece below.
Israel-Gaza Conflict -IV
(Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh)
The escalating conflict between Israel and Gaza
raises concerns about the potential for unbinding proportions. The recent
killing of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital has sent shockwaves across the
Middle East and other Islamic countries. Many unanswered questions remain. No
one has claimed responsibility for the killing, including Israel. If Israel is
behind the killing, the choice of the Iranian capital as the location raises
concerns about provoking a strong response from Iran. Additionally, the killing
of the Hamas chief negotiator, who was on the verge of signing a deal on a
hostage exchange, raises further questions about the motives behind the act. It
is imperative to understand the implications of these dilemmas.
Shekhar Gupta, in his program 'Cut the Clutter',
says Israel is once again doing what it is best at, 'Assassinations'. The
remark may be made in jest, but it was a hard slap on Israel's face. Has the
Zionist state become a nation which seeks to subdue opposition using
assassination as the primary tool of state policy? Most countries in the world
now oppose Israel's continued offensive into Gaza. Reports suggest many in
Israel oppose this path of finding a solution. Their prime minister, Benjamin
Netanyahu, holds on to power in the parliament with the help of
ultra-right-wing parties who support the annihilation of Hamas. Which
translates into continued war with Hamas as a policy. Ten months of offensive,
and Israel has managed to kill only half the Hamas leadership. Israel's claims
that they are nearing the dismantling of Hamas military infrastructure in Gaza
seem more rhetoric than reality. The offensive into southern Gaza was to strike
a death blow to the Hamas, which has gone nowhere. Around 40,000 Palestinians
are dead, and around 90,000 are injured in the Israel-Gaza conflict. A war with
Lebanon threatens to loom, with Israel sitting on the starting blocks. A few
hours before the killing of Haniyeh, a prominent Hezbollah, Faud Shukar, was
killed by the Israelis in a missile strike on his home. He was the second in
command of Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon,
What is unknown in this scenario is where Israel
is going from here. Does their Prime Minister, Mr Netanyahu, believe that he
can wipe out Hamas? Many argue that this is an impossible goal, for Hamas is
not an organisation but an ideology. Can a state kill an ideology?
Assassinations have not worked for Israel earlier. If one is killed, two more
will stand up, bringing to life the sordid tale of a tetra-headed monster. Mr
Netanyahu's war cabinet recently broke up, and even a few of his Generals in
the IDF questioned the madness of relentless strikes in Gaza without an end
state. "What is the desired end State for Palestine?" they questioned
him. Mr Netanyahu's contention is to let's end Hamas first. Then, we will talk
about the end state. It's a typical chicken and egg syndrome. Then, there is
the question of the remaining 110 odd Israeli hostages under the custody of
Hamas in Gaza. It is hard to speculate how many still survive or will survive
after the assassination of Mr Haniyeh. He was the chief negotiator for the
Hamas and was willing to strike a deal. His assassination ends any hope of an
early return of the hostages. It is a big blow to the relatives of the
hostages; 'End of Hope'. The Qatari Prime Minister has made a statement to the
press, "How can negotiations go on when the chief negotiator of one of the
parties is assassinated"?
Why was Haniyeh killed? Let us answer this
question first. When the October Seven attacks were launched, Ismail Haniyeh
was the chief Political head of Hamas operating out of Qatar, where he stayed
curtsey the Qatari government since 2018. Then Israel vowed to kill every head
of Hamas who was responsible for planning and executing the attack. He was
their number one target in that quest because he was the number one in the
Hamas hierarchy. Why was he killed in Iran? This question is difficult to
answer, and an analyst can only make a conjecture. Israel did not want to kill
him in a country which did not have a direct confrontation with Israel. So he
was safe in Qatar because Israel is not in direct conflict with Qatar or, that
matter, Turkey. But Iran is Israel's number one enemy. Both Hamas and Hezbollah
are Iran's proxies fighting Israel, and hence, killing him in Iran was within
state policy. It also was an exercise in signalling to Iran that Israel
maintains the capability of targeting anyone in Iran and no one is safe. The
killing of Haniyeh in Iran must raise many hard questions for the Iranian
government. It reflects the lack of ability of Iranian security services to
stop assassinations on their own soil, thus being a subject of ridicule even
amongst the Iranian citizens. The details of how he was killed remain unclear.
Reports suggest that it was a pinpoint missile strike from the air. An Israeli
plane fired the missile from outside the Iranian air space. Looks too good to
be true. CNN, a US media network, states that he was killed by explosives
strapped to his bed. The method of his assassination is now irrelevant. What
Iran will do is relevant. Iran will be compelled to retaliate to save face.
This time, the retaliation would far exceed a mere show. In equivalence, Iran
would target either an Israeli leader or Tel Aviv. And such a retaliation
threatens to escalate the current conflict. In an interview with a Singapore
channel, the US Secretary of State, Mr Blinken, denied any previous knowledge
of this act. He stated that the US was not involved and was hopeful despite the
assassination of Haniyeh, the peace and hostage negotiations would go through.
What happens to the negotiations of the hostages?
The author believes negotiations will return to track after a few days of
heated debates and retaliations. The reason for this optimism stems from the
fact neither Israel, Iran, Hamas, nor Hezbollah wants an all-out conflict. The
region's economy is in the doldrums. It is unknown how close Hamas is to
financial extinction, but a fair guess should suggest that its support bases
have been shorted. It is hard to get anything inside Gaza to reinforce Hamas. Lebanon
is unwilling to suffer on account of Hezbollah's obsession with destroying
Israel. And Iran is facing a present and clear danger of being cut off by the
likely emergence of Donald Trump. Israel, too, has suffered on account of this
war. It would have to rebuild its economy to return to its old, prosperous
state. Yet, the future of Palestine puts a big question mark on when normalcy
will return. That leaves acts of revenge for face-saving. Those are bound to
happen as the leadership will face an existential crisis in respective
constituencies otherwise.
The last question remains to be answered: who
benefits from this act? All fingers point towards the Israeli prime minister,
Mr Netanyahu. He has the most stakes in the continuation of this conflict. Like
Churchill, he has become politically unpopular and would most likely lose power
as and when the war ends. He has had many corruption cases against him in the
Israeli courts, which would open up if normalcy returned. All this must look
good as rhetoric, but it will not hold water unless there are watertight reasons
for Netanyahu's detractors to blame him for hanging on to power by any means.
Where does Yayah Sinwar, who is the number one assassination target for the
Israelis? Yahah Sinwar is the military commander of Gaza, and he was the
mastermind of the October seven attack in Israel. Since the beginning of this,
the IDF has left no stone unturned to get a fix on him. He was not always in
sync with his political boss, Ismail Haniyeh. Both differed in the terms of
hostage negotiations. Was the killing of Haniyeh, a precursor to the killing of
Yayah Sinwar? Quite possibly, Sinwar is hiding in Gaza tunnels somewhere. There
are rumours that he has undergone facial reconstruction surgery to change his
looks. Only time will tell if that is true. The Israeli establishment could be
holding a view that Hamas will end with the end of Yayah Sinwar, and he could
be next in their sights. His number two, Mohammad Deif, was also killed in an
airstrike a few days back. Hence, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh was a signal
for the beginning of the end of Hamas, as the Israeli establishment wishes the
world to see.
It is hard to speculate how this conflict will
progress. The coming days would be violent. Iran will retaliate. Hamas
retaliation is unlikely to bother Israel as they have been defanged. Hezbollah
will retaliate, too, in conjunction with Iran. The question on everyone's mind
is how far Iran will go. Will it take the conflict into Israel by physical
means like airstrikes? But amidst all this, the plight of an ordinary Gazan is
reduced to an underground rubble. From the rubble overground, the ordinary Gazan
could at least look up to the skies for some hope. The killing of Mr Haniyeh
has killed that hope. Their tears had dried up a long time back. Now it's turn
for their hope to dry up and desert.
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