The Bangladesh Crisis: A Test for Indian Diplomacy

 

Turbulent Times ahead

Bangladesh is currently experiencing turbulence, and its descent into anarchy poses serious implications for India. As a neighbor with a complex history and shared borders, India's relationship with Bangladesh is deeply intertwined. The religious composition and affinity of Bangladesh to the Islamic world add further dimensions to this relationship. Shared water resources demand high levels of cooperation.

Despite India’s role in Bangladesh’s independence, the relationship remains complicated. Bangladesh is surrounded on three sides by India, with a porous border.

The Sheikh Hasina alternative

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh raises important questions about India's support for Sheikh Hasina. Sheikh Khaleda Zia’s BNP was not a viable alternative due to its anti-India stance and ties to radical Islamic elements.

Dependence and Reciprocity

For India, Hasina was a reliable partner against cross-border infiltration and Jihadi threats. In return, India handed over several wanted individuals to her government.

A more flexible strategy could have brought moderate opposition elements into Hasina’s fold, potentially easing tensions. Hasina’s hardline strategies may have contributed to the current crisis.

US Influence and Counterfactuals

The United States had issued veiled threats to Hasina, urging her to hand over the administration to an interim government for overseeing elections. Ignoring these warnings, Hasina pressed on with elections boycotted by the opposition.

Historical Parallels and Current Dynamics

The current crisis evokes memories of the political turmoil of August 15, 1975, when Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated while Mrs Indira Gandhi was in power in India. During that time, Indira’s alliance with the Soviet Union and her defiance against the United States’ interests played a significant role. Similarly, today’s geopolitical dynamics, including India's leanings towards Russia, could invite attempts to destabilize the country.

Implications for Indian Diplomacy

The descent into anarchy in Bangladesh has serious implications for India. Political parties in India recognize these risks and have pledged their support to the government. Indian government must navigate these challenges with diplomatic deftness, balancing its ambitions and strategic alignments carefully.

Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

India has always been a playground for big powers. The current geopolitical landscape is neither bipolar nor fully multipolar. Leaning too heavily towards any one power could invite complications reminiscent of the 1970s. The Indian government will need to play its cards carefully, to focus on immediate diplomatic challenges.

Testing Times Ahead

The Bangladesh crisis presents testing times not only for Bangladesh but also for India. The Indian government’s ability to handle this crisis with skilful diplomacy will be crucial in maintaining regional stability and safeguarding India's interests.