In 2014, against the advice of his powerful military establishment, then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony in Delhi. This unexpected gesture of goodwill marked a significant moment in India-Pakistan relations. As the winds of diplomacy continue to shift, could it be time for Prime Minister Modi to consider a bold step and accept an invitation to Islamabad?
Recent Developments: The SCO Invite
In the past 48 hours, the geopolitical landscape has seen
intriguing developments. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose family
has roots in Amritsar, has extended an invitation to Modi to attend the
upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Islamabad this
October. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has confirmed receiving the
invitation but has not yet indicated its intentions. This invitation comes at a
time when political dynamics in Punjab are also shifting, with the Aam Aadmi
Party consolidating its position as the Shiromani Akali Dal wanes.
Public Opinion and Predictable Responses
The potential for a face-to-face dialogue between Modi and
Sharif has sparked predictable reactions. Supporters of renewed dialogue, often
criticized as bleeding-heart liberals or the "candle-lighting
brigade" at Attari-Wagah, are likely to push for talks. On the other hand,
staunch opponents argue that engaging with Pakistan is futile, given the
ongoing cross-border terrorism and recent attacks in the Jammu region. These
critics view any engagement as a sign of weakness.
The Dilemma of Cross-Border Terrorism
The question remains: Should Modi take the leap and visit
Pakistan? History serves as a reminder that diplomatic overtures can be risky.
Despite Sharif's attendance at Modi's swearing-in, the peace initiative was
short-lived. The 2016 attack on the Pathankot airbase by Pakistani terrorists
led to the suspension of talks. Eight years later, cross-border terrorism
persists, with recent incidents in Jammu indicating ongoing threats
orchestrated from within Pakistan.
A Historical Parallel: The Vajpayee Doctrine
Modi faces a dilemma reminiscent of former Prime Minister
Atal Bihari Vajpayee's approach to Pakistan. Vajpayee, despite the conflict,
sought peace with Pakistan. Modi now must decide whether to continue escalating
tensions, as seen in the 2016 surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot missile
strikes, or to attempt a diplomatic reset.
The Influence of Global Powers
The timing of the Islamabad invite is significant, given
Modi's efforts to balance relations with both Russia and the United States over
Ukraine. It is unclear whether global powers like the US and Russia are
encouraging Modi to renew contact with Pakistan. The SCO, a pro-China
organization, adds another layer of complexity to the decision. The US, in
particular, may not want Pakistan to fall entirely under China's influence.
Kashmir: A Potential Game-Changer
Kashmir remains a central issue in India-Pakistan relations.
Track Two diplomacy has revealed that Pakistan might be willing to soften its
stance on the abrogation of Article 370 if India holds elections in Jammu and
Kashmir. As elections in the region are scheduled for September, this could be
a crucial factor in Modi's decision.
The Final Decision: A Calculated Move
Ultimately, Modi's decision to attend the SCO meeting in
Islamabad should be based on strategic merit and domestic considerations. Such
a move could enhance his reputation with those advocating for dialogue.
Moreover, secure leaders and nations are unafraid to engage with their
adversaries. With key state elections on the horizon, a diplomatic breakthrough
could bolster Modi's standing.
An honest, face-to-face conversation with an adversary can be a powerful form of catharsis. If Modi chooses to go to Pakistan, it could significantly boost his popularity, reaffirming his position as a decisive leader capable of navigating complex geopolitical challenges.
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