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Wednesday, 7 August 2024

Bangladesh Crisis: The Influence of China's Invisible Hand

 


Rising Chinese Engagement with Extremism

In recent times, China’s involvement with Islamic extremism has noticeably increased. This shift has seen China move from engaging solely with state actors to patronizing extremist non-state terrorist groups. This strategic pivot has broad implications for regional stability and international relations.

Strained Relations Between China and Sheikh Hasina

A month before her resignation, relations between China and Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina were deteriorating. Reports suggest that Hasina received a cold reception in China, cutting her visit short. This may indicate that China had intelligence on an impending coup against her or was directly involved in orchestrating it—or perhaps both.

Political Turmoil in Bangladesh

Following these events, Sheikh Hasina reportedly fled Dhaka to a safer location, possibly India, as a mob breached security to enter her house—a scene reminiscent of the revolution in Sri Lanka. The Bangladesh military has since announced an interim government, echoing historical instances where army chiefs sided with foreign powers against their own leaders.

Historical Parallels and Current Events

The history of Bengal is replete with examples of army chiefs aligning with foreign entities against their sovereigns. This raises questions about whether Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman is repeating history for China, akin to Mir Jafar's betrayal of Siraj-ud-Daulah at the Battle of Plassey.

China's Strategic Moves in South Asia

China’s direct intervention in Bangladesh, potentially in collaboration with Pakistan’s ISI and other elements of the Muslim Brotherhood, is a calculated move. Historically, China’s engagement in the region began with Pakistan to counterbalance India. Pakistan provided China access to the Indian Ocean and helped keep India landlocked in the north. Diplomatic engagements with the Middle East for energy security and relationships with the GCC and OIC further solidified China’s influence.

Escalation of Chinese Support for Extremist Groups

China’s support for extremist groups has expanded significantly. This includes cooperation with Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in Kashmir and recognizing the Taliban to suppress ISIS-K and armed East Turkistan rebels. This shift from engaging state actors to supporting non-state terrorist groups marks a significant escalation in China’s strategy.

Influence in the Middle East

China’s ambitions extend to the Middle East, where it has attempted to mediate peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, resulting in a historic agreement. More recently, China has shown open support for Hamas, hosting 14 Palestinian groups in Beijing to legitimize them, despite not acknowledging the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel or addressing Israel’s security concerns.

Implications for Bangladesh

Sheikh Hasina, daughter of Bangladesh’s founding father Mujib ur Rahman, was unpopular with Islamists due to her stance against groups like Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (Jamaat) and its student wing, Chhatrashibir. These groups have strong ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and have infiltrated the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and possibly the armed forces.

Geopolitical Ramifications for India

Hasina’s departure to Delhi, where she has spent years in exile, is seen by China as a pro-India move. Beijing, mistrustful of Hasina, prefers a puppet government in Dhaka that would provide strategic advantages against India. This political instability in Bangladesh, combined with ongoing conflicts in Myanmar, threatens India’s regional initiatives like BIMSTEC and the IMEC.

China's Broader Strategy

China’s engagement with Muslim organizations globally, initially a tactic to deflect criticism of its Uyghur policies, has evolved into alliances with extremist non-state actors. This strategy aims to disrupt democracies and accelerate geopolitical shifts. However, China must tread carefully, as the Muslim Brotherhood and similar entities can be unpredictable allies.

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