A Shocking Collapse and Its Impact
On August 5,
under a 45-minute ultimatum from the Bangladeshi Army, Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina left Bangladesh for India. Bangladesh Army Chief Waker-uz-Zaman
announced the establishment of an interim government.
The sudden
collapse of Hasina's government is both shocking and unfortunate. Concerns
about the rise of radical elements in Bangladesh have grown, exacerbated by the
violent aftermath of her resignation. Her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, said that
Hasina would not return to politics, lamenting that despite her efforts to
transform Bangladesh into a rising Asian economy, the current turmoil had
dashed those hopes.
The
Origins and Escalation of Student Protests
The
political unrest, initially framed as a 'students' movement,' began in July
2024 with demands to abolish quotas in government jobs. A Supreme Court ruling
on July 21 reduced quotas for families of freedom fighters from 30% to 5%,
reallocating positions based on merit and including ethnic minorities,
transgender individuals, and people with disabilities. Despite this, protests
continued, with calls for Hasina's resignation and escalating violence that
resulted in over 300 deaths.
The Role
of Radical Elements
The
agitation's dominance by the Razakar narrative foreshadowed the violence of
August 5, when statues of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman were destroyed, and significant
landmarks, including the Prime Minister’s residence and the Indira Gandhi
Cultural Centre, were vandalized. Hasina’s poignant question about the
resentment against freedom fighters was met with destructive actions.
The
Influence of Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatra Shibir
The radical
outfit Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI) and its student wing, Islami Chhatra
Shibir (ICS), played a significant role in the unrest. The Bangladesh
government banned Jamaat-ICS on August 1, citing their involvement in recent
terrorist activities. Jamaat has a history of collaborating with the Pakistani
army during the Liberation War and has always opposed the Awami League. The ban
was a direct attack on a volatile entity, leading to intensified protests and
further violence.
Unrest
and Chaos in Dhaka
Protesters
stormed the Prime Minister's residence, looting everything from food to
furniture in a festive procession through the streets of Dhaka. This chaotic
scene is part of a disturbing trend in South Asia where popular unrest dictates
political outcomes, similar to events in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
The Role
of Opposition and Civil Society
The
political opposition in Bangladesh, supported by civil society groups,
capitalized on public discontent to bring about change. The student movement
for quota reform, initially peaceful, was hijacked by opposition parties,
leading to widespread violence and protests.
Despite
attempts to address the issue, the government's actions were too little too
late, and the quota reform movement gained momentum.
Violent
Confrontations and Political Fallout
The
involvement of the Chhatra League, the student wing of Hasina's Awami League,
in violent clashes with protesters escalated tensions. As violence engulfed
Dhaka, the opposition, particularly the Chhatra Shibir of Jamaat-e-Islami,
joined the fray, leading to widespread destruction and arson.
Government
Missteps
The Hasina
government's refusal to engage in dialogue with protest leaders, coupled with
its heavy-handed response, only inflamed passions. Labeling students as
"Razakars" and terrorists exacerbated the situation. Even after the
death toll surpassed 200, the government failed to acknowledge the severity of
the crisis.
The
Army's Role and Political Transition
As the
situation deteriorated, social media campaigns urged the army to support the
people. Eventually, the army gave Hasina 45 minutes to resign and leave the
country. General Waker-Uz-Zaman, a relative of Hasina, announced plans for a
civilian interim government, although the timeline remains unclear.
International
Reactions
The U.S. and
the EU expressed approval of the protestors' lawful actions and the army's
restraint, signaling tacit support for the transition. Neither China nor
Pakistan commented on the developments, but both have strong ties with
opposition parties and the military in Bangladesh.
A History
of Army Interventions
Bangladesh
has a history of military interventions in politics. After the assassination of
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, Major General Ziaur Rahman seized power. His
regime was followed by Lieutenant General Hussain Muhammad Ershad’s coup in 1982.
The current situation echoes these past events, with the army likely to set up
an interim government, possibly leading to martial law or a compliant civilian
cabinet.
The Rise
of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party
In the wake
of Hasina’s resignation, President Mohammed Shahabuddin ordered the release of
opposition leader Khaleda Zia. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), aligned
with Jamaat, has been instrumental in the unrest. Tarique Rahman, Khaleda Zia’s
exiled son, called on pro-democracy supporters to join the protests,
highlighting the BNP’s significant role in the turmoil.
The Path
Forward: Democracy in Jeopardy
The future
of democracy in Bangladesh appears bleak. The pretext of removing a 'corrupt'
government through student protests will likely give way to the dominance of
the army and Jamaat-BNP. The current turmoil, driven by radical elements and
deep societal divisions, suggests that a functional democracy remains a distant
dream for Bangladesh.
Turbulent
Times, With Uncertain Outcome
Bangladesh's
descent from hope to despair tests the resilience of its democracy. The current
crisis, marked by violence and political upheaval, underscores the challenges
ahead. The world watches as Bangladesh navigates these turbulent times, with
the outcome uncertain.
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