Rising Tensions in the South China Sea

 

The South China Sea has long been a focal point of  tension, between China and the Philippines. Philippines is adopting a more assertive stance in response to China's growing military presence and aggressive maneuvers in the disputed waters. Beijing must recognize that the traditional "carrots and sticks" approach will no longer suffice in managing its relationship with Manila.

A Year of Escalating Skirmishes

For over a year, the relationship between China and the Philippines has been strained by regular skirmishes between their naval forces in the South China Sea. During the ninth meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) on July 2, the two nations reached a provisional understanding aimed at avoiding miscalculations and miscommunications around the disputed islands. However, recent developments, including a collision between vessels near the Spratly Islands on August 19, suggest that tensions remain high.

Chinese Military Build-up and Philippine Resistance

The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) has intensified its military presence around the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. Over the past year, CCG vessels have increasingly engaged in threatening maneuvers to deter Philippine ships from the region, particularly those involved in rotation and resupply (RORE) missions in collaboration with the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG). The CCG's aggressive tactics, including ramming PCG ships and using water cannons against Philippine vessels, have escalated tensions and led to injuries among Filipino personnel.

In response, the Philippines has adapted its strategy, deploying aircraft to deliver supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, a warship deliberately grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal to assert the country's claim over the feature. This shift in tactics highlights Manila's determination to resist Chinese encroachments.

The Roots of the Dispute

China claims that the disputed regions, including the Second Thomas and Scarborough Shoals, have been part of Chinese territory since ancient times.

On the other hand, the Philippines argues that China's claims infringe on its sovereign rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The UNCLOS Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled in 2016 that China's nine-dash-line has no legal basis, a ruling that China has consistently rejected. This legal backing has emboldened the Philippines to continue asserting its rights in the face of Chinese aggression.

Nomenclature Warfare and Diplomatic Posturing

In addition to the physical skirmishes, China and the Philippines are engaged in a war of words. China refers to the South China Sea as 'Nanhai Zhudao' and the Second Thomas Shoal as 'Rén’ài Jiāo,' emphasizing its historical claims. Conversely, the Philippines uses the term 'West Philippine Sea' and refers to the same shoal as 'Ayungin Shoal,' framing the dispute in terms of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

These naming conventions are not merely semantic; they reflect broader efforts by both nations to solidify their claims and influence international opinion.

The Bilateral Consultation Mechanism: A Mixed Success

The recent BCM meeting in Manila, co-chaired by Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Chen Xiaodong and Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro, aimed to ease tensions. However, the differing post-meeting statements from both sides indicate that the fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. While the Philippines accused China of causing "miscommunication and miscalculation" in the conduct of its lawful RORE activities, China reiterated its sovereignty over the disputed waters.

The BCM, established seven years ago. However, its effectiveness has been limited.

The Path Forward: A New Strategic Approach?

As tensions persist, it is clear that China's current strategies, including military deterrence and bilateral consultations, have not succeeded in reducing hostilities. The renewal of the Philippines' Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States further complicates the situation, indicating that Manila is seeking additional support in countering Chinese aggression.

For Beijing, this situation calls for a reassessment of its approach. The Philippines is increasingly assertive and resistant to Chinese pressure, signaling that more nuanced diplomacy may be necessary to prevent further escalation.