Through Operation Sindhoor, India has forced Pakistan to fight on three fronts simultaneously. This operation is still ongoing, and as of the end of 2025, Pakistan’s military and economic situation has severely deteriorated. Pakistan currently finds itself in a crisis on three distinct fronts:
- The Western Front (Afghanistan): Pakistan’s policy of ‘Strategic Depth’ has backfired, as the Afghan Taliban are prioritizing the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) over Pakistani interests. Relations with the Afghan Taliban, once considered a strategic advantage for Pakistan, have now become a major liability. The border has become insecure due to TTP attacks and large number of IEDs attacks in the frontier regions.
- The Eastern Border and the Indian Threat: Through like ‘Operation Sindhoor,’ India has made it clear that cross-border terrorism will receive a fitting response. The eastern border with India has become unstable once again. Following terrorist provocations, India struck at the very core of Pakistan via Operation Sindhoor. Consequently, the border situation has escalated into a state of full-blown hostile threat. Due to India’s aggressive posture, Pakistan is forced to deploy its best manpower and resources along the Indian border.
- The Internal Front: Entangled in internal conflicts, 50% of the Pakistani Army is under immense pressure. Separatism in Baluchistan is no longer limited to mountainous regions but has spread to urban centres like Karachi and Gwadar.
Regional Distribution of Violence
In 2025, violence in Pakistan was primarily concentrated in two provinces:
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): Here, the TTP intensified attacks using the Afghan border. Security forces suffered heavy losses due to cross-border support and the use of IEDs.
- Baluchistan: Organizations like the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) and BLF (Baloch Liberation Front) targeted not only security forces but also Chinese projects and migrant labourer’s.
The Pakistan government is spending massive funds to suppress the rebellion in Baluchistan. Instead of being spent on education, health, or infrastructure, this money is being diverted to military operations. This has strengthened the sentiment among locals that “our resources are being used only to suppress us.” While Pakistan responded with military force, it failed to devise a political strategy to address public grievances. As a result, this province has become a flashpoint consuming military resources.
2025: The Bloodiest Year in Recent History
The data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) presents a reality harsher than any political statement. Between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 1,070 incidents of killing were recorded in Pakistan, resulting in 3,967 deaths. This included 1,212 security personnel, 655 civilians, and 2,099 rebels. The death toll in a single year has nearly doubled compared to 2024.
This was not just the most horrific year in recent memory; it was the year Pakistan’s internal security crisis spiralled out of control, visibly impacting its foreign policy, military stance, and diplomatic decisions.
What Does the Reality Tell Us?
Information gathered by credible Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) accounts paints an even grimmer picture. According to this data, approximately 2,700 to 3,000 security personnel may have been martyred in 2025, with about 3,500 injured.
Notably, these OSINT estimates align closely with claims made by the TTP. While rebel statements are often dismissed as propaganda, they provide accurate details regarding the location, route, and timing of IED operations, which can be independently verified. If these estimates are even partially true, 2025 was the most devastating period for Pakistan’s security forces in the last decade.
Analysis of Fatality Statistics
The number of deaths in 2025 nearly doubled compared to 2024. The following table highlights the difference:
| Category | 2024 | 2025 (Official SATP) | 2025 (OSINT – Reality) |
| Security Personnel | ~600 | 1,212 | 2,700 – 3,000 |
| Civilians | ~400 | 655 | 900+ |
| Rebels | ~900 | 2,099 | 2,200+ |
| Total Deaths | ~1,900 | 3,967 | ~6,000+ |
The rising ratio of security force deaths compared to rebels indicates a “War of Attrition,” where rebels are implementing a strategy to exhaust Pakistan’s manpower.
Military Casualties and Lack of Transparency
Pakistan has historically maintained extreme secrecy regarding casualties among its military and paramilitary forces. They rarely release comprehensive data on personnel killed or injured in attacks or counter-terrorism operations. Official figures are mostly based on media reports and selective military briefings, which analysts believe represent only a fraction of the actual losses.
The biggest gap in official data is the damage caused by IED (Improvised Explosive Device) attacks. In large parts of KP and Balochistan, IEDs became the primary cause of death in 2025, accounting for over 40% of security force fatalities. Patrol vehicles, logistics convoys, and checkpoints have become targets of these “low-visibility” but highly lethal attacks.
This has undermined Pakistan’s “military superiority,” as the military, paramilitaries, and intelligence agencies are failing to prevent these attacks. The lack of visual documentation of these incidents makes it easier for the government to ignore them or downplay their intensity. For instance, the death toll from the Jaffar Express kidnapping in October 2025 is missing from official stats; credible sources placed the number between 88 and 125.
No Reduction in Attack Frequency
For years, Pakistan’s counter-terrorism strategy was based on the assumption that intense military operations could eliminate rebel capabilities. In 2025, this assumption was completely shattered. Despite rebels being killed in large numbers, the frequency of attacks did not decrease. A security force death rate higher than that of the rebels is a sign of a war tilting toward defeat. Reports also suggest that rebels have started using cheap drones for surveillance and attacks.
What to Expect in 2026?
If no political solution is found in Balochistan and the border dispute with the Afghan Taliban continues, the intensity of violence is likely to persist in 2026. Due to the economic crisis, Pakistan is finding it difficult to sustain high spending on counter-terrorism operations.
The significance of 2025 is not just in the death toll. Pakistan is fighting a losing battle. While struggling to stabilize its own borders, it dreams of being relevant to the outside world. In such a situation, the bloodiest years are a warning of a more horrific crisis to come.
Diplomatic Isolation: The Gaza Illusion
Against this backdrop, Pakistan is talking about playing a role in peace missions in Gaza. While this may seem diplomatically significant on paper, it is actually a “strategic illusion.” Pakistan cannot afford to send troops abroad while struggling to secure its own borders. Although Pakistan is attempting to gain global sympathy by focusing on the Gaza issue, its credibility has diminished due to human rights violations and violence within its own country.
Challenges for 2026
Economic Strain: Pakistan’s economy is dependent on IMF loans. In such a state, bearing the cost of a long-drawn internal war is difficult.
Military Fatigue: Due to constant missions and rising casualties, the military leadership faces a massive challenge in maintaining soldier morale.
Islamic NATO Pakistan is pursuing an equivalent to an Islamic NATO by signing strategic pacts with Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The country believes this alignment will enhance its significance in the Islamic world, leveraging Turkey’s technology and Saudi Arabia’s financial resources. This partnership is expected to bolster Pakistan’s role in the protection of Islamic nations.
However, questions remain about whether this pact can effectively secure the Pakistan-Afghanistan border or reduce violence in Balochistan, ultimately making Pakistan safer.
It seems unlikely. The challenges in Balochistan do not solely stem from a lack of weapons. The Pakistani army appears reluctant to conduct ground operations in either Balochistan or along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, preferring instead to use helicopter gunships, fighter aircraft, and drones. With this approach, it is doubtful that Pakistan can successfully address the security challenges it faces. Consequently, 2026 is likely to be a more violent year for the country.
Based on this analysis, it appears that in 2026, Pakistan needs to completely overhaul its security strategy. For Pakistan, 2026 will be a battle for existence. It is caught in a pincer movement between economic distress in Baluchistan and increasing pressure from India.
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