Old and new lessons from the Ukraine War

If one sees the conflict as Ukraine’s ‘war of independence’, rather than focusing too much on borders, the Ukrainians are already victorious.

 

Putin had denied that Ukraine was a separate nation, but his behaviour has only strengthened Ukrainian national identity.

What else have we learned?
First, old and new weapons complement each other.

Second, nuclear deterrence works, but it depends on relative stakes more than capabilities.

Third, economic interdependence does not prevent war.

Fourth, sanctions can raise costs, but they do not determine outcomes in the short term.

Fifth, information warfare makes a difference.

Sixth, both hard and soft power matter.

Seventh, cyber capability is not a silver bullet.
Another lesson, then, is that once a war has begun, kinetic weapons provide greater timeliness, precision and damage assessment for commanders than cyber weapons do.

Finally, war is unpredictable.
The promise of a short war is seductive. Putin certainly never expected to be bogged down indefinitely. He has managed to sell his war of attrition to the Russian people as a great patriotic struggle against the West. But the dogs he has unleashed could still turn around and bite him.