Algorithmic Warfare: How AI Could Shape the Future of Deterrence

Introduction

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are revolutionizing national security and crisis management. We must explore the future of deterrence and the critical role of human judgment within an AI-centric crisis simulation.

The Imperative for Debate

The integration of AI/ML capabilities in national security is poised to grow significantly in the coming years. This necessitates a robust debate on the extent and manner in which information technology should augment strategic and military decision-making. The stakes are too high for a blind march into the future, underscoring the need for thoughtful and informed discourse.

Integrating AI/ML into Modern Battle Networks

The national security community must expedite experimentation with AI/ML integration into modern battle networks. This involves not only optimizing joint targeting and enhancing the speed at which the military can sense, interpret, and respond but also rethinking traditional military staff organizations and legacy national security planning processes. The focus should be on supporting human decision-making amidst a deluge of information characterized by uncertainty, fog, and friction.

Balancing Stability and Risk

The  AI/ML has the potential to both stabilize and destabilize international relations. There is a risk that nuclear states could inadvertently program their way to catastrophic outcomes. Thus, it is crucial to challenge the findings and recognize the study's limitations. Observations remain limited and may be influenced by factors such as age, gender, and the type of national security experience of participants. Future efforts should broaden the range of participants and increase the number of observations to better analyze the impact of varying levels of AI/ML capabilities on risk perception and escalation.

Expanding Research and Participant Diversity

To gain a comprehensive understanding, future research should include a wider array of participants, including those from the general public and non-govt. entities. Comparing public perceptions with those of experts can provide valuable insights. Ideally, these simulations should involve a diverse group of international players to reflect the global nature of security challenges.

Conclusion

AI and ML are set to play a transformative role in national security and crisis management. While these technologies offer significant benefits, they also pose substantial risks. It is imperative to conduct thorough and inclusive research, challenging existing findings and expanding the range of participants, to ensure that AI/ML integration in national security enhances stability rather than inadvertently leading to catastrophic outcomes. The future of deterrence will depend on how effectively human judgment is supported and informed by these emerging technologies.