Calibrated Moves on Tibet and Taiwan
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term indicates a strategic and calibrated approach towards China, particularly concerning Tibet and Taiwan. These moves could potentially end the ongoing border stalemate or exacerbate the crisis further.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
The relationship between India and China, crucial for India's rise, is often debated along political and ideological lines. As Modi's government begins its third term, there is uncertainty about whether it will continue with previous policies or adopt a new approach. The backdrop of an ominous military buildup along the Himalayan borders has created a dangerous flashpoint between two of the world's most powerful armies.
Collapse of the Bilateral Framework
The bilateral framework established in the 1990s has collapsed, mainly due to China's power advantage and its attempts to redraw the status quo along the 3,440 km-long Line of Actual Control (LAC). Despite India's efforts to persuade China to revert to the pre-2020 status quo, these efforts have failed, leading to a dangerous military confrontation.
Need for a New Bilateral Framework
To prevent an eventual catastrophic conflict, there is an urgent need for a new bilateral framework. However, with China adopting a maximalist position, India's options are limited to acceptance or aggression. Twenty-one rounds of military-level talks have achieved some progress, but not enough to break the deadlock.
India's Strategic Responses
In response to the ongoing crisis, India is enhancing its border infrastructure and exploring external balancing by aligning closer with the US and its regional allies. However, these measures have not given India enough leverage to force China to de-escalate.
Importance of Political Dialogue
Some voices advocate for a resumption of political-level dialogue to understand each other's positions better and possibly find common ground. Former Indian foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale suggests that political dialogue might help in risk management and modernizing the outdated agreements from the 1990s.
Chinese Perspective and Misalignment
Chinese incursions have continued even during high-level meetings between leaders. The Chinese perspective, as analyzed by scholars like Antara Ghosal Singh, suggests that China is preparing for the worst at the LAC and views India's stance as uncooperative. This misalignment between the two nations' expectations continues to exacerbate the stalemate.
Leveraging External Partnerships
India is leveraging its partnerships with the US and other allies to create more strategic options. Recent developments, such as India's plans to rename places in Tibet and hosting a bipartisan US Congressional delegation supporting Tibet, signal a stronger stance against China's aggression.
Economic and Political Moves
Modi's government has also taken steps like refusing to resume direct civilian flights with China and avoiding direct interactions with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These moves are part of a broader strategy to gain leverage and force China into meaningful engagement.
China's Strategic Calculations
China views India's attempts to tie normalization of relations to the resolution of the border crisis as arrogance and remains confident in its superior power position. Chinese scholars believe that despite India's dynamic diplomacy and deepening ties with the West, India will ultimately be forced to accept China's primacy in Asia.
Conclusion: A Battle of Nerves
Modi's recent moves indicate a battle of nerves between India and China. While external balancing and a fast-growing economy are India's best options, the outcome of the US presidential elections could significantly influence the geopolitical landscape. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but Modi's strategic responses will play a crucial role in shaping the future of India-China relations
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