The Philippines' Maritime Sovereignty in the South China Sea Dispute

 

The Philippines' maritime sovereignty has become a focal point in the South China Sea dispute amidst escalating tensions between an aggressive Beijing and an assertive Washington. Central to this conflict is China’s ‘Blue Dragon’ strategy and its recent confrontational actions against the Philippines.

China's Aggressive Tactics

The Philippines is currently confronting China’s ‘Blue Dragon’ strategy, particularly at the Second Thomas Shoal. A small Filipino contingent aboard the grounded vessel ‘Sierra Madre’ faces aggressive maneuvers from Chinese coast guard vessels, including water cannon attacks, boat ramming, and threats with weapons. These actions have resulted in injuries to Filipino seamen and have been likened to acts of piracy.

Strategic Importance of the Second Thomas Shoal

The Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin in the Philippines and Ren’ai Jiao in China, has become a critical flashpoint, overtaking Taiwan in significance. China’s claim over the South China Sea, encapsulated within the ten-dash line, includes this area, which is much closer to the Philippines than to China. The region’s potential oil and gas reserves fuel these disputes, threatening to shift the balance of power in the South China Sea.

Historical Context of the Sierra Madre

The Sierra Madre, originally a 1944 US warship, was grounded deliberately by the Philippines in 1999 at the Second Thomas Shoal to assert its presence after China occupied the nearby Mischief Reef in 1994. The marines on the Sierra Madre, rotating every three months, face ongoing Chinese attempts to interdict their supply vessels. The Chinese expect the deteriorating Sierra Madre to break up soon, allowing them to take control.

China's Maritime Strategy and ASEAN Responses

China’s strategy involves asserting sovereignty over the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of ASEAN countries, including the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia, based on its traditional ten-dash line concept. While Vietnam has shifted towards economic partnership with China, Malaysia and Brunei have avoided direct confrontation. Indonesia faces contention with China over the North Natuna Sea, where Chinese fishing vessels, protected by the coast guard, operate illegally.

Legal and Diplomatic Challenges

China's 2021 Coast Guard law empowers its coast guard to act against perceived infringements within its claimed EEZs. Despite a 2016 arbitral award from the Permanent Court of Arbitration favoring the Philippines, China continues to assert its claims, ignoring international rules under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The Philippines' Strategic Response

Under President Marcos Jr, the Philippines has adopted a three-pronged strategy to assert its claims over the Second Thomas Shoal:

1. Renewing US Base Arrangements: The Philippines has revitalized its military agreements with the US, allowing American use of northern bases close to Taiwan in a potential crisis.
2. Strengthening Quad Relationships: The Philippines has bolstered ties with Quad countries (Japan, Australia, and India), benefiting from Japan’s security assistance and support from Australia. It is also the first ASEAN country to acquire India’s BrahMos shore-based missile battery.
3. Repairing the Sierra Madre: Efforts to repair the deteriorating Sierra Madre signal the Philippines' determination to maintain its presence on the shoal despite Chinese opposition.

International Support and Regional Dynamics

The Philippines has garnered significant support from Quad countries, forming a closer military alliance termed 'Squad' with the US, Japan, and Australia. Although India provides military aid, it remains outside the direct military discussions, aligning with its policy of strategic cooperation without explicitly confronting China.

ASEAN's Delicate Position

ASEAN’s response to the conflict has been constrained by a cautious approach towards China. Despite a collective statement urging dialogue and peaceful resolution, ASEAN’s varied positions reflect a reluctance to antagonize China.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The Philippines, through its assertive stance and international partnerships, has drawn significant attention to its maritime sovereignty issues. As the US and its allies integrate the Philippines into their broader strategy against China’s dominance in the region, the potential for accidental conflict looms. The international community’s reaction to such incidents will be pivotal in maintaining regional peace or escalating tensions into limited conflicts