Responding to a More Coercive Chinese Coast Guard and a Potential PRC Quarantine of Taiwan

Given the increasing plausibility of a Taiwan quarantine scenario, Taiwan, the United States, and U.S. allies and partners (especially Japan) should develop more effective tools and strategies for responding.

Strengthening Taiwan's Coast Guard

Taiwan should expand its coast guard to be a more effective counterweight to the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG). In 2018, Taiwan initiated measures to build up its coast guard by 2027, including constructing 141 new vessels. President William Lai’s administration, which took office on May 20, should ensure the continuity of this program with minimal disruption and consider additional options to enhance its coast guard forces.

U.S. Designation of the Chinese Coast Guard

The U.S. government should take decisive measures in response to the CCG's actions. First, Washington should designate China’s coast guard as an arm of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and launch a major diplomatic campaign to persuade allies and partners to adopt the same stance. This effort aims to counteract international perceptions that the CCG is a nonmilitary organization and to prevent China from leveraging these perceptions to engage in illegal, coercive, and aggressive activities. Washington should clearly and publicly state that a military response to CCG coercion is both possible and legitimate.

Increasing U.S. Coast Guard Presence

The United States should increase its coast guard presence in the region. Although the U.S. Coast Guard maintains a sizeable overseas presence, its Pacific forces cover a vast area. Concentrating more forces in the Western Pacific would enhance Washington's capacity for training and regional engagement, including cooperation with Taiwan under existing law enforcement functions. A larger U.S. Coast Guard presence would also provide more tools for responding to a gray zone contingency involving the CCG. This expansion would require an explicit decision to use the U.S. Coast Guard more prominently as a foreign policy instrument.

Encouraging Allied Cooperation

The United States does not need to act alone in deterring and responding to a potential Chinese quarantine operation. Washington should encourage allies and partners to similarly designate the CCG as an arm of the PLA and authorize military responses accordingly. Additionally, the U.S. should seek to strengthen and increase cooperation with Taiwan’s coast guard, and encourage other allies and partners, such as Japan and the Philippines, to do the same. Engaging allies and partners in dialogue about the necessary authorities to respond to PRC coercion below the threshold of military conflict involving the CCG is crucial. For instance, Japan should consider granting its coast guard greater authority to assist Taiwan during a gray zone quarantine, in consultation with Washington. The United States and Japan can share best practices on responding to CCG and PLA activities and conduct joint exercises to explore breaking a quarantine or establishing a preventive corridor.