Already the world's largest navy, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is poised to surpass the U.S. Navy in several key indicators of naval power within the next decade.
However, this does not guarantee that the PLAN will
outmatch the U.S. Navy in wartime. The complexities of war make such
predictions unreliable. The U.S. Navy boasts significantly more combat
experience and time at sea than the PLAN. The United States also has a
longstanding blue-water naval tradition that spans over two centuries, in
contrast to China's naval history, which extends back less than three decades.
A potential war between China and the United States would involve a joint
effort, engaging air, ground, space, and cyber forces. The relative strength of
each nation's capabilities in these domains, alongside factors such as
strategy, leadership, and luck, would all play critical roles.
Moreover, China's ascension to the top spot as the
world's—or even the Pacific's—premier naval power is not guaranteed. Making
long-term predictions based on historical data is inherently uncertain,
especially when using open-source information about a secretive entity like the
PLAN. The United States also holds various advantages—such as alliances,
economic strength, and soft power—that are not reflected in an analysis focused
solely on naval hardware.
Growing Threats and Strategic Implications
Nevertheless, current trends are troubling for the
United States. For the first time in half a century, the U.S. Navy faces a
growing possibility of defeat at sea. The United States could soon confront its
first significant contender for maritime dominance since the collapse of the
Soviet Union. China's increasing naval strength is already empowering Beijing
to assert itself in the Pacific, posing risks to U.S. allies and regional
stability. If the United States fails to address its relative decline, the world
could face a more dangerous and uncertain future.
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