A New Era of Modern Warfare
Anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) tactics are revolutionizing modern warfare.
These strategies aim to prevent adversaries from entering a theatre of
operations and limit their freedom of action within it, fundamentally altering
the geopolitical landscape.
Ukraine: Drones as Game Changers
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the use of drones
highlights the effectiveness of A2/AD strategies. Ukraine has successfully
deployed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to disrupt and destroy Russian tank
formations. These inexpensive and readily available drones act as persistent
threats, complicating Russian maneuvers and diminishing their armored
superiority. This asymmetric approach leverages technology to create zones of
denial, significantly hindering traditional heavy armor operations.
Economic Efficiency of A2/AD
The economic efficiency of A2/AD strategies is evident in Ukraine's use of
drones. For instance, Ukrainian drones, like the A22, cost approximately
$300,000 each, while Russian T-90 tanks can exceed $4.5 million. This disparity
underscores the advantage of using cost-effective drones to neutralize much
more expensive armored vehicles. The substantial costs inflicted on Russia have
bogged down one of the world’s most formidable strike forces.
The Houthis: Disrupting Global Trade
In the Red Sea, the non-state Houthis have imposed a maritime curfew using
missiles and drones costing less than $200,000. This strategy has forced 12% of
the world’s cargo, including 30% of container cargo, to navigate via South
Africa, significantly increasing shipping costs. If the disruption persists, it
could add as much as 2% to global inflation. The Houthis' ability to
dramatically disrupt global trade with inexpensive technology exemplifies the
power of A2/AD in leveraging geographical chokepoints.
Taiwan: A2/AD as a Defensive Strategy
Facing the threat of a Chinese attack, Taiwan has adopted A2/AD as a key
component of its defense strategy. By developing a network of missile
batteries, anti-ship cruise missiles, and advanced air defense systems, Taiwan
aims to make the cost of aggression prohibitively high for Beijing. The
credible threat of attrition serves as a deterrent, reinforcing Taiwan's
defensive posture.
China: Countering US Naval Dominance
China has also developed robust A2/AD capabilities, focusing on countering
the United States’ naval dominance. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has
invested heavily in anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), such as the DF-21D,
known as the “carrier killer.” These missiles are designed to target US
aircraft carriers, creating vast zones of denial and undermining American power
projection in the Asia-Pacific region. China's strategic intent is to assert
control over contested areas like the South China Sea and deter US intervention
in regional conflicts.
The Evolution of Warfare
The evolution of A2/AD strategies marks a significant shift in modern
warfare. Traditional platforms like tanks and aircraft carriers, once symbols
of overwhelming power, now face unprecedented challenges from relatively
low-cost, high-impact technologies. The essence of A2/AD is to deny freedom of
movement and operational flexibility to adversaries, redefining the principles
of deterrence and defense. In this new paradigm, defense becomes the new
offense, fundamentally reshaping the nature of conflict in the 21st century
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