“On the evening of Sept 15, a Pakistan Naval Ship closed a
frontline Indian Naval warship on a routine surveillance mission in the North
Arabian Sea at high speed, manoeuvring in an unprofessional and unsafe manner.
This led to a collision,” a source told TOI. However, the source said,
“No damage has been reported.”
DELelhi has summoned Pakistan's Charge d'Affaires (CDA)
after the incident. “The CDA was summoned to the Ministry of External Affairs
today and a strong protest was lodged with him over the unacceptable and
unprofessional conduct of Pakistani naval units at sea that led to a collision
with a unit of the Indian Navy," the MEA said.
The MEA said the diplomat was advised to convey to the
Pakistani authorities concerned the need for all military units to observe due
care and respect the provisions of the relevant agreements between the two
sides in order to prevent any repeat of such incidents.
“While the incident, which took place in international
waters, did not cause any major damage, the conduct of the Pakistani naval ship
was in direct contravention of Article 10 of the agreement between India and
Pakistan on Advance Notice on Military Exercises, Manoeuvres and Troops
Movements of April 1991,” it said.
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This incident deserves careful analysis because naval
collisions between two nuclear-armed rivals are rare and potentially dangerous,
even when no damage is reported.
Was the Collision Deliberate?
At present, there is insufficient public evidence to
conclusively state that the collision was deliberate. However, three
possibilities exist:
1. Deliberate Aggressive Signalling
The Pakistani vessel may have intentionally conducted a
close approach to:
- Challenge
the presence of the Indian warship.
- Demonstrate
resolve in the aftermath of continuing India-Pakistan tensions.
- Gather
intelligence through visual and electronic observation.
- Test
the reaction procedures of the Indian Navy.
Navies worldwide sometimes conduct "shadowing" or
"close-quarter manoeuvres" for signalling purposes. If the Pakistani
ship intentionally approached at high speed and violated accepted maritime
safety norms, it could indicate coercive signalling rather than an accidental
navigational error.
2. Professional Misjudgment (Most Common Explanation)
Many naval collisions globally occur because:
- A
commanding officer misjudges relative speed and distance.
- Bridge
teams become overconfident during close tracking.
- Communication
between ships is inadequate.
- Sea
state, visibility, or radar interpretation errors occur.
History shows that even highly professional navies,
including the US Navy, Royal Navy, and Chinese Navy, have experienced
collisions during routine shadowing operations.
3. Deliberate Risk-Taking Without Intent to Collide
This may be the most plausible intermediate explanation.
The Pakistani vessel may have:
- Intentionally
closed the distance aggressively.
- Attempted
to force the Indian ship to alter course.
- Conducted
unsafe manoeuvres for psychological or tactical effect.
In such cases, collision is not the objective, but the risk
of collision becomes extremely high.
Why India Refers to the 1991 Agreement
The MEA's reference to the 1991 India-Pakistan agreement is
significant.
The agreement was designed to:
- Prevent
misunderstandings between military forces.
- Reduce
chances of escalation.
- Encourage
professional conduct during military activities.
By citing Article 10, India is effectively arguing that
Pakistan violated established confidence-building measures intended to avoid
precisely such incidents.
Strategic Context
The timing is important.
The incident comes amid:
- Continued
India-Pakistan tensions after Operation Sindoor.
- Increased
naval surveillance in the Arabian Sea.
- Growing
concerns over maritime security and sea-lane protection.
- Enhanced
naval deployments by both countries.
In such an environment, commanders may feel pressure to
demonstrate assertiveness, increasing the risk of unsafe encounters.
What Actions Should Be Taken to Avoid Future Accidents?
Immediate Measures
1. Activate Naval Hotlines
Direct communication between:
- Naval
Headquarters
- Maritime
Operations Centres
- Fleet
Commanders
can quickly clarify intentions and reduce misunderstandings.
2. Conduct a Joint Incident Review
Both navies should exchange:
- Radar
tracks
- AIS
data (if applicable)
- Navigation
logs
- Bridge
recordings
This helps establish facts and prevent competing narratives.
3. Diplomatic Protest and Follow-Up
India has already lodged a protest. Follow-up discussions
should focus on operational procedures rather than political rhetoric.
Operational Measures
4. Establish Minimum Separation Distances
Both navies could agree on:
- Minimum
approach distances.
- Speed
restrictions during shadowing operations.
- Standard
communication procedures when operating nearby.
The US and China adopted similar mechanisms after several
dangerous encounters in the Pacific.
5. Mandatory Bridge-to-Bridge Communication
Whenever ships approach within a predetermined range:
- Radio
contact should be established.
- Intentions
should be clearly stated.
- Course
changes should be announced.
6. Enhanced Training
Regular training in:
- Collision
avoidance.
- Rules
of the Road (COLREGS).
- Crisis
management.
- Close-quarter
ship handling.
can significantly reduce risks.
Strategic Measures
7. India-Pakistan Maritime Confidence-Building Measures
(CBMs)
Possible measures include:
- Annual
naval safety meetings.
- Incident-at-sea
protocols.
- Advance
notification of major naval exercises.
- Communication
drills between maritime operations centres.
8. Develop an "Incidents at Sea Agreement"
The United States and Soviet Union signed such an agreement
in 1972 after dangerous Cold War encounters. A similar India-Pakistan
arrangement could:
- Prohibit
dangerous manoeuvres.
- Regulate
close approaches.
- Establish
investigation mechanisms.
- Reduce
escalation risks.
Assessment
Based on the information currently available, the strongest
conclusion is not that the collision was necessarily deliberate, but
that the Pakistani vessel appears to have engaged in unsafe and
unprofessional manoeuvring that created a foreseeable risk of collision, as
alleged by Indian authorities. Whether this resulted from deliberate
signalling, excessive aggressiveness, or navigational misjudgment can only be
determined after examination of radar tracks, communications records, and
operational logs.
From a national-security perspective, the most important
issue is not assigning immediate intent but ensuring that such incidents do not
escalate into a military confrontation. Professional seamanship, clear
communication, robust confidence-building measures, and strict adherence to
international maritime rules remain the best safeguards against future
accidents.
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