🌏 Context
In 2000, the CIA predicted China would stagnate and democratize.
Instead, China rose rapidly, disproving the “End of History” narrative of inevitable convergence toward US‑style democracy and free markets.
Western elites misjudged China’s long‑term strategy of comprehensive national power.
📉 Why the West Miscalculated
Utopian optimism: Belief that globalization would spread democracy and free markets.
Ignored warnings: Analysts like Bernstein & Munro foresaw conflict, but were sidelined.
China’s clarity: Deng Xiaoping’s Four Cardinal Principles and Xi Jinping’s Document No. 9 openly rejected Western values.
⚔️ The China Challenge
China pursues techno‑industrial dominance — advanced industries, indigenous innovation, and global trade leverage.
The CCP no longer depends heavily on Western investment or technology.
Xi Jinping declared: “Socialism will inevitably defeat capitalism.”
🇺🇸 Western Dilemma
US elites still underestimate China’s ability to dominate advanced industries.
Free‑market advocates resist state intervention, fearing “becoming like China.”
Political divisions (left prioritizing green/social justice, right resisting industrial policy) hinder decisive action.
🏭 Policy Prescription
West must adopt a national techno‑industrial policy:
Active state role in tech, trade, and industry.
Insulate supply chains from Chinese predation.
Accept productivity‑driven job losses as necessary.
Without this, China will capture a growing share of global advanced industry.
📌 Conclusion
The West may not be “better” than China if it fails to act.
China’s rise exposes the weakness of Western complacency.
Atkinson warns: “Perhaps the West just isn’t better, after all.”
No comments:
Post a Comment