As tensions escalate between China, the U.S., and its
allies, especially around Taiwan, China is exploring novel methods to gain an
advantage without direct confrontation. One such method is cognitive warfare,
a strategy that aims to influence adversaries’ decision-making processes and
perceptions to achieve strategic goals without physical combat.
The Growing Importance of AI in China's Military
Ambitions
China's military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is
increasingly focused on "intelligent warfare", leveraging
artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled systems and operational concepts. This
focus was underscored by President Xi Jinping at a Communist Party congress,
where he emphasized Beijing’s commitment to cutting-edge technologies,
including AI. China’s goal is to be the global leader in AI by 2030, and it's
integrating military and civilian strategies to achieve this dominance.
Cognitive Warfare: A New Battlefield
Cognitive warfare is becoming a critical part of modern
military strategies. It refers to influencing the thoughts, beliefs, and
decisions of adversaries using AI and psychological techniques. Experts warn
that China sees this as an opportunity to subdue opponents like Taiwan without
using conventional weapons. According to Chinese military analysts, cognitive
warfare will likely become the next vital battlefield after physical and
informational warfare.
Disinformation and Manipulation: Tools of Cognitive
Warfare
China’s cognitive warfare strategy includes spreading disinformation
through social media and deep fakes to manipulate public opinion. This
could involve discrediting U.S. efforts to support Taiwan or undermining
Taiwan’s internal stability. Beijing would need extensive cyber,
psychological, and social engineering capabilities to achieve this, along
with vast amounts of personal data on foreign governments and citizens, which
China has already been accused of gathering.
Data as a Weapon in Cognitive Operations
China has been involved in major cyberattacks,
including the 2015 U.S. Office of Personnel Management breach and the 2017
Equifax hack. These attacks provided China with massive amounts of personal
data, which can be used to influence and manipulate individuals and
decision-makers. Experts suggest that this data could be "weaponized"
in future conflicts.
Cognitive Warfare Targeting Taiwan and Hong Kong
China has already employed cognitive warfare tactics in Taiwan
and Hong Kong. During Taiwan's 2020 presidential election, there were
reports of digital manipulation and attempts to influence public opinion. These
activities reflect China’s broader objective to assert control over territories
it claims as its own.
Strengthening the Psychological Resilience of Chinese
Troops
In addition to targeting external adversaries, the PLA is
also focused on the psychological well-being of its own soldiers. New
AI-enabled wearable devices are being developed to monitor soldiers' mental
states in real-time and provide psychological support. This reflects the PLA’s
belief that war is both a material and spiritual contest, where mental
resilience plays a crucial role.
Challenges and Uncertainties in China's Cognitive Warfare
Strategy
Despite these advancements, there are doubts about the feasibility
of China’s cognitive warfare capabilities. Experts suggest that the PLA may
have overestimated the effectiveness of AI due to political pressures and may
not have accounted for the vulnerabilities, such as algorithmic bias. However,
the U.S. is taking no chances, imposing restrictions on the export of
advanced AI chips to China to hinder its progress in this domain.
Conclusion: The Growing Role of Cognitive Warfare
While the ultimate success of China’s cognitive warfare
efforts remains uncertain, the development of AI and cognitive operations will
likely reshape future conflicts. As AI technology advances, the possibility of
directly influencing the human mind becomes increasingly feasible, making
cognitive warfare an area that global powers must watch closely.
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