Machiavelli's Influence on China's Tactics
Machiavelli once stated, “It is much safer to be feared than
loved.” He also added, after studying Cicero, that “a prince must make himself
feared in such a way that he avoids hatred, even if he does not acquire
love." This subtle balance between fear and respect is what Beijing has
failed to achieve in its influence operations. While China has experienced some
tactical successes, it has not managed to avoid generating widespread
resentment.
Tactical Successes: Coercion of Corporations
China has demonstrated its ability to exert pressure on
private companies, compelling them to comply with its demands. For instance,
international airlines and hotel chains have been forced to label destinations
like “Taipei, China” rather than acknowledging Taiwan’s sovereignty. Even major
corporations like the NBA have issued public apologies after officials
criticized China. In 2012, when The New York Times published an article
disfavored by the Chinese government, China responded by blocking the
newspaper’s website, causing the company’s stock market value to drop by 20% in
just 24 hours. Additionally, many businesses avoid placing ads in media outlets
critical of China, fearing economic retribution, further weakening the
independence of the press.
Strategic Failures: Global Backlash
Despite these tactical wins, China’s broader influence
strategy has been a strategic failure. Its aggressive posture has triggered
widespread and growing resistance. This backlash is not new—China has long been
its own worst enemy when it comes to building influence. In Africa, for
instance, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has faced numerous setbacks in
recent years. Complaints have surfaced about China's exploitative behavior,
with local businesses and workers feeling neglected, as if they were treated like
colonial subjects.
Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and the Erosion of China’s Image
Beijing’s "wolf warrior" diplomacy—a more
combative and assertive foreign policy—has further damaged its international
standing. Its use of disinformation, coercion, and brute force has tarnished
its once positive image. Xi Jinping himself acknowledged that the COVID-19
pandemic could lead to the strongest wave of anti-China sentiment since the
Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He also warned that this growing resentment
could undermine BRI projects and prompt the United States to increase military
and financial support for its Asian allies, raising the risk of confrontation.
High-Profile Scandals and Reputational Damage
Several high-profile incidents have further harmed China’s
global reputation since Xi came to power. The espionage case involving the
African Union headquarters, China’s “hostage diplomacy” tactics used to
pressure Canada and other countries, revelations about Uyghur concentration
camps (such as the "China Cables"), and the heavy-handed response to
protests in Hong Kong have all contributed to the deterioration of Beijing's
image, particularly in the West.
Polarized Perceptions: West vs. Developing Nations
However, China’s reputation has not suffered uniformly
across the globe. Its image has deteriorated significantly in developed
countries, particularly in Europe, North America, Japan, and South Korea. In
contrast, China’s standing in developing countries remains relatively positive
and, in some cases, has even improved. This reflects Beijing's dual approach:
confrontation with the West and seduction of the Global South.
Conclusion
While China has achieved some tactical successes through
coercion, its overall influence strategy has failed to win lasting
international support. Instead, its aggressive methods have provoked a growing
backlash, particularly in developed nations. The future of China's global
influence may hinge on whether it can find a more balanced approach between
fear and respect, as Machiavelli advised centuries ago
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