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Monday, 16 September 2024

Pakistan's 24th IMF Bailout: Time for the Army to Return to the Barracks

 Pakistan Army's Grip on National Narrative

Since its independence, the Pakistan Army has cultivated the idea that it is the nation’s ultimate protector against its "eternal enemy," India. This narrative has been deeply ingrained in the public consciousness, allowing the Army to extend its influence far beyond military affairs and into the economic and business sectors of the country. The people of Pakistan, conditioned by this belief, have largely accepted the Army's dominant role in both governance and commerce.

IMF's Role in Breaking the Economic Stranglehold

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) must now demand that the Pakistan Army relinquish its stranglehold on the nation’s economy if Pakistan hopes to break free from its chronic economic crises. On September 12, the IMF announced that its Board of Directors would meet on September 25 to discuss a potential $7 billion support program for Pakistan, aimed at stabilizing the country's macroeconomic situation over the next three years.

This will mark the 24th time the IMF has intervened to bail out Pakistan since its founding. Although an agreement between the IMF and the Pakistani government was reached in July, delays ensued as the IMF awaited additional funding commitments from Pakistan's traditional donors. The delay was met with frustration by some Pakistani officials, who accused the IMF of pursuing a political agenda, despite the Fund's insistence that it was merely waiting for Pakistan to uphold previous commitments.

Temporary Relief, But No Real Change

In the meantime, Pakistan has received a boost in credit ratings from agencies like Moody’s and Fitch, while its stock exchanges have seen a rise in response to the expected IMF aid. However, this is merely a temporary reprieve. The real issue lies in Pakistan’s unwillingness to adopt fundamental social, political, and foreign policy changes necessary for sustainable economic growth. Unless Pakistan's ruling elite, particularly its military, acknowledges the need for such reforms, the country’s economic instability will persist.

Pakistan Army's Hollow Claims

For meaningful change, the Pakistan Army must abandon its anti-India agenda and allow the nation’s political and business elites to act more responsibly. Unfortunately, there is no indication that the Army is prepared to shift its approach. Despite this, military spokespersons continue to make grand claims about the Army's supposed contributions to the economy, as was seen during a September 5 press conference by the Director-General of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.

Chaudhry claimed that the Army had reduced its financial demands from 1.9% to 1.7% of the GDP despite inflation and highlighted the taxes and duties paid by the Army's economic entities. However, these statements ring hollow, as the Pakistan Army has grown into the nation’s largest business conglomerate, benefiting primarily its officers, both serving and retired. The Army’s involvement in economic affairs has made it a leech draining the country’s resources, to the detriment of the wider population.

The Army's Political Intrigue and Accountability Farce

Chaudhry’s September 5 press conference also covered two other key issues: the ongoing court martial of Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (Retd), former Director-General of ISI, and the situation in Balochistan. On the matter of Hameed, Chaudhry praised the Army’s “robust” system of accountability, claiming it applies equally to serving and retired personnel. However, the Pakistani Army’s accountability measures are widely viewed as a farce, especially given the Army’s deep involvement in politics. Hameed’s court martial is likely more a consequence of the ongoing power struggle between former Prime Minister Imran Khan and current Army Chief Gen Asim Munir.

Balochistan and Shifting the Blame

Regarding Balochistan, Chaudhry attempted to shift blame for the ongoing terrorism there onto civilian authorities, suggesting that the Army’s role is limited to "kinetic" actions, such as clearing areas of terrorists. According to him, it is up to the civil administration to build and fortify state institutions. However, this narrative follows the Army’s standard playbook, designed to deflect responsibility for the failures in combating terrorism.

Chaudhry also blamed Afghanistan for rising terrorism, citing the presence of terrorist camps and the involvement of Afghan nationals in attacks. He pointed to the American military’s leftover weapons as another source of Pakistan’s terrorism woes. Despite the Army’s initial celebration of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, this victory is now proving to be a hollow one, with escalating security issues in Pakistan.

The Need for the Army to Step Aside

Ultimately, Chaudhry’s most telling remark was his suggestion that, while the Army can fight terrorists, the battle against terrorism must be waged by the entire nation. If this is true, the Pakistan Army should relinquish its hold on the country’s security policies and return to the barracks. However, given its entrenched corporate interests, this is unlikely to happen. The Army remains deeply invested in maintaining its economic and political dominance, to the detriment of Pakistan’s overall stability.

A Moment of Reckoning

Chaudhry’s press conference epitomized the double-speak, blame-shifting, and hypocrisy that have long defined the Pakistan Army. As the country prepares for its 24th IMF bailout, the question remains: will Pakistan’s military establishment finally step back and allow for the economic reforms necessary for genuine growth? Or will the Army continue to pursue its narrow interests, leaving Pakistan’s economy in perpetual crisis? Only time will tell, but the need for change has never been clearer

 

 

 

 

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