Kashmiri Separatists and Indian Democracy: An Evolving Dynamic

 The Surface of Change

At first glance, it seems as if those who have long opposed Indian democracy are now engaging with it. However, a deeper analysis reveals more complex and potentially concerning motives.

After a decade-long gap, Jammu and Kashmir is finally holding elections. Historically dominated by political families such as the Abdullahs and the Muftis, the region’s political scene is witnessing a shift—one that might have far-reaching implications. Independent candidates backed by Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (JIJK) are now playing an influential role. This shift represents a strategic recalibration by separatist groups that once rejected India's democratic process.

From Militancy to Politics: A Tactical Shift

This new development is particularly notable for its participants. Former militants and separatists linked to groups like Hizbul Mujahideen are now using the language of electoral democracy. The move from armed militancy to election participation marks a tactical shift. Instead of outright rejecting India’s political system, these groups are working within it to pursue their long-term goals.

Why the Shift? The Role of Jamaat-e-Islami

Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, an Islamist organization with a presence across India, has a complicated history in Jammu and Kashmir. Its regional offshoot, Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir, has been deeply intertwined with separatist movements and militancy, particularly through its association with Hizbul Mujahideen.

In 2019, following the Pulwama attack, the Indian government banned JIJK for promoting terrorism and secessionism. This ban was extended in 2024, leaving JIJK with limited options. Supporting independent candidates appears to be a way for them to regain influence and pursue what militancy could not achieve.

Separatist Participation in Elections: A Strategy of Survival

For decades, separatist leaders like Syed Salahuddin, the head of Hizbul Mujahideen, denounced Indian elections as illegitimate, often advocating for Kashmir's independence or its merger with Pakistan. However, after the Indian government's revocation of Articles 370 and 35A in 2019, the separatist movement lost significant momentum. Facing fewer options, groups like JIJK have now decided to engage in the electoral process.

The current strategy focuses on nominating candidates who present themselves as advocates of social reform, while still harboring long-term separatist ambitions. This is not an abandonment of their earlier goals but a pragmatic adjustment to ensure their survival.

A Calculated Move: Seeking Legitimacy through Democracy

This new political engagement is a way for banned organizations like the Jamaat to regain relevance. By supporting independent candidates, these groups can extend their influence while avoiding direct confrontation with the Indian state.

A Language Shift: Appealing to Delhi’s Democratic Framework

Interestingly, many former separatists are now framing their objectives in terms more compatible with New Delhi’s democratic system. For instance, Salim Geelani, a veteran separatist leader, has joined the People's Democratic Party (PDP). This shift reflects a broader recognition that Indian democracy is now the only viable option for political engagement in Kashmir.

Journalists and analysts like Aditya Raj Kaul argue that the crackdown on terror funding and the significant reduction in violence have led to a growing realization among Kashmiri Muslims that their future lies within India. However, other commentators, like columnist Sunanda Vashisht, caution that this shift should not be mistaken for a change of heart. Many separatists may be using democracy to regain political legitimacy for personal and organizational gain.

Electoral Prospects: Who Has a Chance?

Among the independent candidates, figures like Irfan Ahmad Shah are seen as having a strong chance of success. However, many candidates backed by Jamaat may only succeed in cutting votes from established parties like the National Conference (NC) and PDP.

For example, Talat Majeed, a Jamaat-backed candidate in Pulwama, is facing strong competition from PDP and NC. Similarly, Ajaz Ahmad Mir, a former PDP leader, is contesting as an independent with Jamaat support. These elections are likely to test the strength of this new political approach by the separatist factions.

The Global Playbook: Insurgents Turning Politicians

This shift is not unique to Kashmir. Around the world, insurgent groups often transition into political entities when armed conflict becomes unsustainable. By participating in elections, they can gain legitimacy and access resources that allow them to further their agenda within a legal framework.

They are now using India’s democratic institutions and judiciary to push their agenda in a more covert manner. This is part of a broader geopolitical strategy influenced by foreign actors like Pakistan’s ISI and organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

A Tactical Embrace of Democracy

Kashmiri separatists have not abandoned their long-term goals of secession or Islamization. Instead, they are employing a more nuanced strategy, using democratic participation as a means to regain influence. This is a tactical embrace of democracy, not a genuine commitment to the Indian Constitution or its values.

While the shift represents a new chapter in Kashmir’s political history, it is crucial to remain vigilant about the long-term implications of this evolving strategy.