: A Shift from Grand Promises There was a time when an Indian prime minister’s visit to the United States, including previous ones by Narendra Modi, carried the promise of grand strategic outcomes—cementing alliances and reshaping geopolitical dynamics. This time, however, expectations were more subdued. The image of US President Joe Biden appearing somewhat disoriented during the meeting foreshadowed what was to come: a summit marked by modest deliverables and a clear asymmetry in expectations.
Cutting Through the Diplomatic Fog Summit diplomacy is supposed to clear away confusion, yet during this visit, the diplomatic fog remained thick. Despite this, dismissing the visit entirely would be a mistake. Even incremental progress, though devoid of fanfare, carries its own significance.
Strategic Outcomes in the Indo-Pacific While the visit was relatively low-key, it yielded important results, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The launch of the MAITRI initiative—a maritime training program—though framed modestly, hints at a long-term strategic objective. Equally significant was the logistics agreement, which strengthens the Indo-Pacific's strategic importance. Spanning two-thirds of the globe, this vast maritime area has become pivotal to the Quad’s strategic agenda, allowing for both sea control and sea denial. The joint communiqué emphasized enhanced maritime security cooperation, particularly the expansion of underwater domain awareness—an essential element for credible deterrence in these waters.
Challenges from India’s Neighborhood However, the visit also highlighted the complexities of India’s regional challenges. Just before PM Modi’s arrival, the White House hosted Khalistani separatists—an alarming development for India, which views these factions as threats to its territorial integrity. Additionally, the US' tacit support for an Islamist-influenced military coup in Bangladesh, along with its ongoing engagement with Pakistan, complicates India’s regional strategy. These moves suggest that, despite the rhetoric of partnership, Washington still approaches its relationship with India as largely transactional.
A Transactional Relationship: Key Deals This transactional nature was reflected in the deals that were struck during the visit. With Washington aiming to curb China’s dominance in the semiconductor supply chain, a deal to establish a semiconductor fabrication plant in Uttar Pradesh for India’s defense sector emerged as the summit's most notable achievement. In the healthcare sector, a cancer vaccine initiative was another important step towards improving health outcomes. Additionally, India’s soft power received a boost through the Quad fellowships.
On the defense front, the anticipated $4 billion deal for 31 MQ-9 drones stood out, though questions remain about their vulnerability in contested airspace, which may lead to a reevaluation of the purchase.
The Road Ahead for US-India Relations In the grand scheme of international diplomacy, this visit was largely a diplomatic gesture—a formality to sustain long-term engagement. However, in the delicate dance of international relations, such gestures are sometimes essential. Sustaining a relationship often requires investment in bonds that are not yet fully formed.
The key takeaway from Modi’s visit is that the US has not yet committed to investing the political capital necessary to support India’s rise as a preeminent Asian power. The gap between New Delhi and Washington is not just geographical but one of trust. Bridging this gap will require more than high-level summits; it will demand deeper and more sustained diplomatic efforts. Only through long-term engagement can India and the US navigate the complexities of their evolving partnership.
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