The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, signals a tentative thaw in Sino-Indian relations. This interaction comes after years of strained ties following the Galwan Valley clash, where China’s sudden military aggression against Indian soldiers marked a turning point, halting the previously positive trajectory of bilateral relations.
Shifting from Cooperation to Strategic Caution
Before the Galwan incident, India’s commercial and diplomatic engagement with China had been steadily growing. The clash, however, drove relations into a restrained rivalry, as China intensified its influence in neighboring countries and grew wary of India’s increasing alignment with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific. India’s strengthened role in the Quad, its proactive Indo-Pacific engagements, and its careful balancing of ties with both Moscow and Washington amid the Ukraine crisis further heightened Beijing’s apprehensions. China's attention has also been drawn to India’s steady economic growth, contrasting with the broader global slowdown, including challenges in China’s own economy.
China’s Pragmatic Shift in Strategy
China recognizes that stabilizing ties with India is in its own interest. India has shown resilience against Chinese military pressure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) while maintaining essential trade relations with Beijing. Meanwhile, China’s aggressive stance, combined with the U.S.-led alliances in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Camp David Defense Pact with Japan and South Korea and the AUKUS pact with Australia and the U.K., have proven counterproductive for Beijing. China regards India as a strategically autonomous actor, especially in contrast with Pakistan, whose instability poses strategic risks. Beijing now realizes that an “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan may no longer be the enduring asset it once viewed.
India’s Measured Military and Diplomatic Responses
India, too, has strategically addressed the evolving situation along the LAC, strengthening its military deployment, constructing critical border infrastructure, and clearly linking any normalization of ties with China to peace and the restoration of the pre-2020 border status quo. The high-level dialogues and recent agreements represent a cautious but positive outcome of China’s revised strategic outlook and India’s firm stance on border security.
Shared Aspirations in a Multipolar World
The Modi-Xi meeting underscores shared aspirations for a multipolar global order, opposition to unilateralism, and support for the Global South. Both countries participate in various multilateral forums like BRICS, the East Asia Summit, and the ASEAN Regional Forum, reflecting a broader convergence of goals that transcends their border disputes. Prime Minister Modi has articulated that Sino-Indian cooperation could bolster regional and global security, while External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has emphasized that true Asian leadership in the 21st century depends on robust cooperation between the two countries.
Moving Forward Amid Complex Geopolitical Tensions
The Kazan meeting, while encouraging, represents only an initial step. While it offers hope to the strategic community and peace advocates in the Indo-Pacific, it complicates the calculus for nations that have previously capitalized on Sino-Indian rivalries. This détente may also encounter resistance from hardliners on both sides who believe that normalization cannot occur until all border disputes are fully resolved. India, therefore, must proceed carefully, engaging in multiple stalled dialogue mechanisms while ensuring its strategic interests are safeguarded.
Vigilance: The Need to “Trust, But Verify”
Despite positive signs, China’s history of unexpected actions demands that India remain vigilant. While trust is crucial in diplomacy, verifying that diplomatic assurances align with actions on the ground is essential to sustaining any progress
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