Modi and Xi’s Handshake in Kazan: Implications Beyond Ladakh Improvement in Sino-Indian Relations

 

The recent handshake between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Kazan, Russia, signals more than just a symbolic gesture. This meeting, set against a backdrop of years of escalating tensions between India and China, marks the beginning of a potential recalibration in bilateral relations.

The West may be watching closely, but it seems increasingly difficult to prevent major powers like India pursuing their own national interests, irrespective of Western desires.

A Hectic Week in Indian Geopolitics

The week leading up to this bilateral meeting was a whirlwind of geopolitical activity for India. It began with Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad— the first high-level Indian visit in a decade— for a multilateral conference. This was followed by the announcement of a disengagement pact between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh, offering hope of a resolution to the long-standing military standoff in Aksai Chin. The handshake in Kazan formalized this agreement, marking the end of a period of deep military confrontation.

Disengagement: A Welcome but Cautious Development

While the disengagement pact is a significant development, its implications are complex. Indian  strategic community, view this pact with caution. The agreement may not yet allow Indian troops to be redeployed from the high-altitude border regions, as China retains an advantage in rapid troop deployment. However,it should be  noted that India has stood firm in demanding a return to the pre-Galwan clash status quo, achieving victory.

Strategic Implications for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the Modi-Xi handshake could spell trouble. Pakistan's military strategists in Rawalpindi are likely losing sleep over the implications of this meeting. The sight of Dr. Jaishankar smiling during his Islamabad visit was alarming enough, but seeing Modi and Xi shaking hands raises fears of a shift in Chinese support for Pakistan.

China's willingness to engage with India signals a potential re-evaluation of its strategic interests in Pakistan. The once-strong “iron-brother” relationship between China and Pakistan appears to be weakening. China now views Pakistan less as an asset and more as a liability. This shift may reduce Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese support in future conflicts, particularly in its ongoing struggles with India.

Western Concerns Over an India-China Rapprochement

The implications of the Kazan meeting are not limited to Asia. Western nations, especially the U.S., are wary of any signs of cooperation between India and China. For the West, a friendly relationship between these two Asian giants could challenge their global dominance. Some Western commentators have even speculated that India might align with China’s anti-Western bloc, though such speculation is unfounded and exaggerated.

The Deconstruction of Colonial-Era Dominance

The meeting in Kazan represents a broader trend—the gradual deconstruction of the post-colonial world order. In a multipolar world, nations like India, China, and Russia are increasingly prioritizing their own national interests over traditional alliances with Western powers. This is evident in Russia’s ongoing conflict with the West, where President Vladimir Putin sees the strategic value in India and China working together.

Russia, too, benefits from improved Sino-Indian relations. A stable relationship between these two Asian giants allows Russia to navigate its own geopolitical challenges more effectively.

China's Pragmatism in Engaging India

For China, the decision to engage with India is pragmatic. As India slowly reduces its dependence on Chinese goods, symbolized by actions such as the banning of Chinese apps like TikTok, China recognizes the need to make concessions to preserve its access to the Indian market. Xi Jinping's handshake with Modi in Kazan reflects this strategic calculation.

A Changing Global Order

In a world marked by shifting alliances and evolving power dynamics, the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan stands as a metaphor for the changing global order. Even as India attempts to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, Russia has quietly facilitated a temporary peace between China and India.

The implications of this meeting stretch far beyond the borders of Ladakh. It signals a shift in global geopolitics, where  India is beginning to chart independent courses.