No military would ever succumb to becoming a complete AI force. For AIs, the biggest weakness lies in the domain of uncertainty. And war is a honeycomb of uncertainty and friction. It would be difficult to pinpoint when a Military transits into an AI-dominated force. Many systems described above are prevalent in service today. Automation is built into the weapon systems. The difference is that humans still make decisions. Automated systems only aid decision-making. In any military operation where the decision responsibility is assigned to an AI system, it would signal a shift to the above-mentioned transformation. Assuming it does, the changes that could accrue in the military are given below:
· Organisation. It is difficult to predict any significant organisational changes to the current organisations. What is likely would be adding newer organisations. For the army, they could be added at the levels up to a Corps/Division, in the Navy at a fleet HQ level, and in the Air Force at an operational command level. These additions would be an organisation that would like the IDF data bank branch and more. It would have the hardware and the manpower to collect, collate, and analyse large sets of data and the ability to link them to the shooter links, which are essentially the weapon systems. They would also be in the know of the AI algorithms and would be in a position to rewrite and modify them based on the tactical requirements. The essential requirements of these additional organisations would be dedicated digital links with the command and fighting elements, the hardware and the software, which would help the analysis and allow the system to provide correct inputs to the DSS (Decision Support System). The networking of all these elements will be critical for seamless operations. The organisation tree for the new unit will be incremental as it would start with a section-level strength (for e.g. Ten Personnel) and then grow if its efficacy is proven and the need dictates a bigger organisation.
· Weapons & Equipment. The advent of AI on the battlefield will lead to a change in the equipment profile of any military. Indian Armed Forces would be no different. AI would demand weapons capable of being networked and receiving target engagement of target recognition instructions. They would be automated to respond to firing instructions from another AI source, which could be in any Command Centre or a higher HQ (headquarters). It would be impossible to refurbish the entire inventory of weapons and equipment. The concept of new, old, and obsolete would remain relevant. Nevertheless, weapons on the inventory will need modifications to be compatible with AI instructions. Will a gun fire independently without manual intervention, or can an aircraft launch a missile without the pilot pressing the trigger? ‘Yes’, such a scenario is within the realms of an AI environment. If not an artillery gun, such a scenario is possible with a rocket launcher, which is fully loaded and ready in a hide to fire. A pilotless fighter jet tomorrow would be acting on firing solutions and engaging the targets based on an airborne Command Post. The examples mentioned above explain the need to upgrade the weapons and their control systems.
· Style of Leadership. There are different leadership styles, namely Autocratic, Democratic, and variable style. As the military gets into the AI mode, the leadership style will change from an Autocratic style to a Democratic style. No military leader can be completely democratic; it would impinge upon his ability to make tough decisions in times of crisis. The most demanding change for the commanders would be to change their leadership style. It would gravitate towards the democratic style to find an equilibrium between variable and democratic.
Leadership Styles (Diagram-2)
Type of Leadership. In leadership, there is another continuum that contains three types: Transactional leadership, management by exception, and transformational leadership. As the military transforms from conventional to information to intelligence, so should the leadership, from Transactional to Exception to Transformational. In AI times, leaders have to lead the change or be the change. They need to transform themselves first before they transform others. According to James Burns in his book, ‘Leaders Who Changed the World’, " ‘Transformational leadership occurs when one or more persons engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivation and morality- power bases are not linked as counter-weights but as mutual support for a common purpose. Transformational leadership ultimately becomes moral in that it raises the level of human conduct and ethical aspirations of both the leader and the led, and thus has a transformational effect on both.’ In the context of the military, it will be seen as the attempt of the leadership to change the organisational structure, its culture and the professional skills, all of which an AI-driven environment would demand.
In an AI-driven system, the threshold for awareness, knowledge, and aptitude for technology would have to go up for all ranks, from the soldier to the top commander. The Concomitant effect of higher education amongst ranks would lead to a change in the organisational culture requiring greater tolerance for mistakes and informal individual behaviour. The World War II style of discipline and blind obedience by rank and file to orders given by commanders would diminish, if not vanish. Orders, when given, would require additional deliberation and better dissemination.
There would be a change in the tactics and employment of weapons systems. New operational doctrines would be necessary to cope with the changing technology. In an AI environment, all sensors, which are national assets, would come into play. Thus, the line between military assets and civilian assets will obfuscate. There would be a need for seamless integration of AI-driven systems to function optimally.
Management of change. All the above can be clubbed in the heading "Management of Change". This facet of the military would be the greatest challenge to all ranks and files. It will primarily be a command responsibility. This change would affect the military and the national civilian leadership: the government, for no decision would be taken in isolation. Situational inputs from the highest HQs would drive the decision. The change we are envisaging would not be sudden. It would be gradual, and a part of the change is already in motion. The force integrating faster and adapting to technology will likely reap AI's benefits earlier. For others, it will be a long, grinding wait.
There is a necessity to look into the crystal ball gap in the future and see how AI will transform the Indian military. Only a proper study by a team of subject matter experts can reach close to fundamental discoveries of the level of changes required in leadership, organisational structures, and culture.
Summary
AI will be a reality in warfighting soon. AI has many applications in the civil world, and it dictates the commercial interests of corporations and the ruling elites alike. A battle will continue to rage between the benefits and pitfalls of embracing AI. However, AI in the military dimension can have a decisive effect if used by trained and professional soldiers, sailors and airmen. AI will create an upheaval in the military ethos. It would challenge the tenets of established organisational culture and organisational structures. It will also compel the commanders to opt for newer doctrines and different battlefield tactics. As technology becomes the cornerstone of warfighting, AI will cast its shadow from the frontline soldiers to the top leaders in the National HQs. This shift would be a huge change, and Management of this change will be a command function. It will fall upon leaders at all levels to manage this change for the better. While the entire subject is in the realm of conjecture, its future seems near. The Military, which prepares itself better for AI, would succeed faster and reap the benefits. This article is to provoke individual minds to think and add to the growing debate on how AI will change our lives.
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