ब्रिक्स परिषदेतून जागतिक महासत्तेची समीकरणं बदलणार का ? 2) ब्रिक्सच्या मंचावरून दहशतवादाचा तीव्र विरोध करण्यात आलाय. पहलगाम हल्ल्याच्या निषेधामुळे पाकिस्तानची नाचक्की होईल. पाकिस्तानला याचा कसा फटका बसू शकतो ? 3) रशिया, चीन आणि इराण तीनही देशांचे भारतासोबत दृढ संबंध होत आहेत. अमेरिकेची चिंता वाढणार आहे का?

 

1)

  विशेष करून अमेरिकेतील आगामी निवडणुका पाहता  ट्रम्प अडचणीत येतील का?

१) ब्रिक्स परिषदेतून जागतिक महासत्तेची समीकरणं बदलणार का?

थोडक्यात उत्तर: हो, पण तात्काळ नाही.

BRICS (ब्राझील, रशिया, भारत, चीन, दक्षिण आफ्रिका आणि नव्याने सहभागी देश) हा आता फक्त आर्थिक मंच राहिलेला नाही. तो पाश्चिमात्य वर्चस्व असलेल्या जागतिक व्यवस्थेला पर्याय उभा करण्याचा प्रयत्न करीत आहे.

मात्र मर्यादा देखील आहेत:

• भारत-चीन स्पर्धा
• रशिया-चीन जवळीक
• इराण-सौदी मतभेद
• सदस्य राष्ट्रांची वेगवेगळी राष्ट्रीय हितसंबंध

त्यामुळे BRICS लगेच अमेरिकेला पर्याय ठरणार नाही. पण एकध्रुवीय (Unipolar) जगातून बहुध्रुवीय (Multipolar) जगाकडे संक्रमण वेगाने घडवत आहे.

होय, ब्रिक्स (BRICS) परिषदेमुळे जागतिक राजकारण आणि अर्थकारणातील समीकरणांमध्ये मोठा बदल घडून येत आहे.

• अमेरिकन डॉलरचा प्रभाव कमी करणे (De-dollarization): ब्रिक्स देशांचा भर स्वतःच्या राष्ट्रीय चलनांमध्ये (Local Currencies) व्यापार करण्यावर आहे. यामुळे जागतिक व्यापारावरील डॉलरचे एकाधिकारशाही वर्चस्व कमी होत असून, नवीन आर्थिक प्रणाली आकारास येत आहे.
• ग्लोबल साऊथचा वाढता प्रभाव: ब्रिक्स ही संघटना आशिया, आफ्रिका आणि लॅटिन अमेरिकेतील विकसनशील देशांचा (Global South) प्रमुख आवाज बनली आहे. पश्चिमेकडील श्रीमंत राष्ट्रांच्या (G7/G20) वर्चस्वाला ब्रिक्सकडून तगडे आव्हान दिले जात आहे.
• जागतिक संस्थांमध्ये सुधारणांची मागणी: संयुक्त राष्ट्रसंघ (UN), जागतिक बँक (World Bank) आणि आंतरराष्ट्रीय नाणेनिधी (IMF) यांसारख्या संस्थांमध्ये विकसनशील देशांना पुरेसे प्रतिनिधित्व मिळावे, यासाठी ब्रिक्सचा दबाव वाढला आहे.

२) ब्रिक्सच्या मंचावरून दहशतवादाचा तीव्र विरोध आणि पाकिस्तानची कोंडी

ब्रिक्सच्या नवी दिल्ली जाहीरनाम्यात दहशतवादाविरोधात 'झिरो टॉलरन्स' आणि पहलग्राम हल्ल्याचा तीव्र निषेध नोंदवण्यात आला आहे.

पाकिस्तानला बसणारा फटका	विश्लेषणात्मक परिणाम
चीनकडून मिळालेला झटका	पाकिस्तानचा सर्वात जवळचा मित्र मानल्या जाणाऱ्या चीननेही या जाहीरनाम्यावर स्वाक्षरी केली आहे. त्यामुळे दहशतवादाच्या मुद्द्यावर चीन पाकिस्तानचे रक्षण करू शकणार नाही, हे स्पष्ट झाले.
आंतरराष्ट्रीय एकाकीपण (Diplomatic Isolation)	सीमेपार दहशतवाद, दहशतवादी वित्तपुरवठा आणि दहशतवाद्यांना सुरक्षित आश्रयस्थाने (Safe Havens) देण्यावर ब्रिक्सने ठाम विरोध दर्शवला आहे. यामुळे आंतरराष्ट्रीय पातळीवर पाकिस्तान एकाकी पडेल.
FATF आणि आर्थिक निर्बंधांची टांगती तलवार	ब्रिक्स देशांनी दहशतवादी निधीवर कारवाई करण्याचे आवाहन केल्यामुळे पाकिस्तानवर FATF (Financial Action Task Force) च्या पुन्हा ग्रे-लिस्टमध्ये जाण्याचा किंवा नव्या आर्थिक निर्बंधांचा दबाव वाढेल.

मात्र वास्तववादी दृष्टीने पाहिल्यास:

पाकिस्तान लगेच आंतरराष्ट्रीय पातळीवर अलग पडेल असे नाही. चीन, तुर्की, काही इस्लामी देशांशी त्याचे संबंध कायम राहतील. पण भारताच्या दहशतवादविरोधी कथनाला मोठा आधार मिळाला आहे.

3) रशिया, चीन आणि इराण तीनही देशांचे भारतासोबत दृढ संबंध होत आहेत.

    अमेरिकेची चिंता वाढणार आहे का?

  विशेष करून अमेरिकेतील आगामी निवडणुका पाहता  ट्रम्प अडचणीत येतील का?

३) रशिया, चीन, इराण आणि भारताचे संबंध - अमेरिकेची चिंता आणि ट्रम्प यांच्यावर होणारा परिणाम

भारताने रशिया, चीन आणि इराणसोबतचे आपले सहकार्य संतुलित ठेवले असले, तरी पश्चिमेकडील देशांसाठी ही बाब नक्कीच चिंतेची ठरत आहे.

• अमेरिकेची चिंता का वाढतेय?

इराण आणि रशियावर अमेरिकेचे कठोर निर्बंध आहेत. असे असतानाही ब्रिक्सच्या माध्यमातून हे देश एकत्र येत आहेत आणि भारत त्यांच्याशी व्यापार व ऊर्जा सहकार्य कायम ठेवत आहे. यामुळे अमेरिकेच्या आर्थिक निर्बंधांची पकड कमजोर पडताना दिसते.

• डोनल्ड ट्रम्प आणि अमेरिकन राजकारणावर परिणाम:
• 'डॉलर'चा मुद्दा आणि ट्रम्प यांची भूमिका: ट्रम्प यांनी ब्रिक्स देशांना डॉलरला पर्याय शोधल्यास १००% टॅरिफ (आयात शुल्क) लावण्याची धमकी दिली होती. परंतु, ब्रिक्स देश स्वतःच्या चलनांमध्ये व्यापार वाढवत राहिल्यास ट्रम्प यांच्या 'अमेरिका फर्स्ट' आणि डॉलर वाचवण्याच्या धोरणाला मोठा फटका बसू शकतो.
• निवडणुकीतील राजकीय अडचण: अमेरिकन निवडणुकांमध्ये विरोधक ट्रम्प यांच्या परराष्ट्र धोरणावर प्रश्न उपस्थित करू शकतात. "अमेरिकेच्या दबावाला न जुमानता भारत, रशिया, चीन आणि इराणचे सहकार्य वाढले," हे दाखवून विरोधक ट्रम्प यांना घेरण्याचा प्रयत्न करतील.
• भारताचे संतुलित धोरण (Strategic Autonomy): भारत एकाच वेळी अमेरिकेसोबत धोरणात्मक भागीदारी (उदा. QUAD) मजबूत ठेवत आहे आणि दुसरीकडे ब्रिक्समध्ये स्वतःचे राष्ट्रीय हित सांभाळत आहे. यामुळे अमेरिकेला भारतावर थेट मर्यादा घालणे कठीण जाते.

अमेरिकेची खरी चिंता भारताबद्दल नाही; तर रशिया-चीन-इराण या त्रिकोणाच्या वाढत्या समन्वयाबद्दल आहे.

ट्रम्प अडचणीत येतील का?

माझ्या मतानुसार थेट नाही.अमेरिकेतील निवडणुकीत मतदारांसाठी मुख्य मुद्दे असतात:

• अर्थव्यवस्था
• महागाई
• रोजगार
• स्थलांतर
• अंतर्गत सुरक्षा BRICS हा त्यांच्यासाठी दुय्यम विषय असतो.

तथापि:

जर BRICS अधिक मजबूत आर्थिक ब्लॉक बनला, डॉलरला पर्यायी व्यवहार वाढले, किंवा अमेरिकन निर्बंधांची परिणामकारकता कमी झाली,

तर अमेरिकन राजकीय नेतृत्वावर दबाव वाढू शकतो.

पण हे ट्रम्प विरुद्ध विरोधक असा मुद्दा न राहता अमेरिकेच्या दीर्घकालीन जागतिक नेतृत्वाचा प्रश्न बनेल.

टीव्ही चर्चेसाठी एक प्रभावी निष्कर्ष

"BRICS अजून NATO किंवा G7 चा पर्याय बनलेला नाही, पण तो जागतिक व्यवस्थेतील सत्तासंतुलन बदलण्याचे काम नक्की करत आहे. पहलगाम हल्ल्याचा BRICS मंचावर झालेला निषेध हा भारताचा मोठा राजनैतिक विजय आहे. पाकिस्तानवर नैतिक आणि राजनैतिक दबाव वाढला आहे. दुसरीकडे भारताने रशिया, चीन, इराण आणि अमेरिका यांच्यात संतुलन राखत बहुध्रुवीय जगात स्वतःचे स्वतंत्र स्थान निर्माण करण्याची क्षमता दाखवली आहे."

 

आतंकवादी ओसामा बिन लादेनच्या निशाण्यावर भारत होता... अमेरिकेची गुप्तचर संस्था CIA च्या अहवालात दावा... २५ वर्षांनंतर CIA चा क्लासिफाइड रिपोर्ट समोर...

 

अमेरिकेची गुप्तचर संस्था CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) ने ९/११ च्या हल्ल्यांच्या पार्श्वभूमीवर डीक्लासिफाय (सार्वजनिक) केलेल्या 'प्रेसिडेन्शियल डेली ब्रीफ्स' (PDB) च्या अहवालांचे विश्लेषण, त्याची सत्यता आणि भारताच्या दृष्टिकोनातून याकडे कसे पाहिले पाहिजे याचा सविस्तर आढावा खालीलप्रमाणे आहे:

१. बातमीचे विश्लेषण (काय आहे CIA चा अहवाल?)

• २८ ऑगस्ट १९९८ ची गुप्तचर टीप: तत्कालीन अमेरिकी अध्यक्ष बिल क्लिंटन यांना सादर केलेल्या गुप्तचर अहवालानुसार, अफगाणिस्तान आणि सुदानवरील अमेरिकन क्षेपणास्त्र हल्ल्यानंतरही अल-कायदाचे नेटवर्क कार्यरत होते. यात ओसामा बिन लादेन इजिप्त, कुवेत, सौदी अरेबिया, येमेन, युगांडा आणि भारतासह काही देशांमध्ये दहशतवादी हल्ले घडवण्याच्या विचारात होता.
• दहशतवादी संघटनांचे नेटवर्क: अहवालात नमूद आहे की, लादेनने भारतातील आणि विशेषतः काश्मीरमधील 'हरकत-उल-मुजाहिद्दीन' (HUM) सारख्या दहशतवादी संघटनांशी अमेरिका आणि पाश्चात्य हितसंबंधांवर हल्ले करण्यासाठी हातमिळवणी केली होती.
• 'क्रुसेडर-ज्यू-हिंदू' युतीची धारणा: अल-कायदाची विचारसरणी केवळ अमेरिकेपुरती मर्यादित नव्हती; ते भारतालाही त्यांच्या शत्रूंच्या व्याख्येत बसवत होते.

२. सीआयएचे (CIA) विश्लेषण किती खरे आहे?

हे विश्लेषण अंशतः आणि ऐतिहासिकदृष्ट्या अत्यंत खरे आहे.

• काश्मीरमधील दहशतवाद आणि अल-कायदाची उपस्थिती: १९९० च्या दशकात काश्मीरमध्ये सक्रिय असलेल्या परदेशी दहशतवाद्यांमध्ये अल-कायदाचा प्रभाव आणि लादेनच्या छावण्यांमध्ये (जसे की खोस्त आणि जलालाबाद) प्रशिक्षण घेतलेल्या दहशतवाद्यांचा सहभाग भारताने प्रत्यक्ष अनुभवला होता.
• इतर पुरावे: २००८ मधील मुंबईवरील २६/११ चा हल्ला असो किंवा त्यापूर्वीचे हल्ले, लश्कर-ए-तय्यबा आणि जैश-ए-मोहम्मद या संघटनांचे अल-कायदाशी वैचारिक आणि रणनीतिक संबंध स्पष्ट झाले होते.
• परंतु (काही मर्यादा): या अहवालात भारत लादेनच्या 'हिटलिस्ट'वर असल्याचे म्हटले असले तरी, त्यात भारतावर कधी, कुठे आणि कसा हल्ला केला जाईल याचा कोणताही ठोस किंवा विशिष्ट Operational Plan (कारवाईची रूपरेषा) दिलेला नाही.

३. हा CIA कडून होणारा प्रोपोगंडा (प्रचार) आहे का?

हा पूर्णपणे प्रोपोगंडा नाही, पण अमेरिकेच्या स्वतःच्या अपयशांवर पांघरूण घालण्याचा आणि भू-राजकीय (Geopolitical) संदर्भाचा एक भाग असू शकतो:

पैलू	वास्तव आणि विश्लेषण
स्वतःच्या अपयशाचे स्पष्टीकरण	९/११ च्या घटनेला २५ वर्षे पूर्ण होत असताना, अमेरिकन जनतेला हे दाखवण्याचा प्रयत्न आहे की "सीआयएकडे धोक्याची माहिती आधीपासून होती, परंतु धोरणात्मक त्रुटींमुळे ९/११ रोखता आले नाही."
ग्लोबल नॅरेटिव्ह (जागतिक कथा)	दहशतवादाचा धोका केवळ अमेरिकेला नव्हता, तर भारत, आफ्रिका आणि आशियातील इतर देशांनाही होता, हे स्पष्ट करून अमेरिकेच्या 'वॉर ऑन टेरर' चे समर्थन करणे.
भारताशी धोरणात्मक संबंध	सध्याच्या जागतिक परिस्थितीत भारताला एक प्रमुख सुरक्षा भागीदार मानले जाते. त्यामुळे "आम्ही २५ वर्षांपूर्वीही भारताला असणाऱ्या धोक्याची नोंद घेत होतो," हे दाखवून गुप्तचर सहकार्य मजबूत करणे.

४. भारताने यावर काय पावले उचलली पाहिजेत?

भारताने या अहवालाकडे केवळ भूतकाळातील बातमी म्हणून न पाहता भविष्यातील सुरक्षेच्या दृष्टिकोनातून खालील धोरणात्मक पावले उचलणे गरजेचे आहे:

• १. देशांतर्गत गुप्तचर यंत्रणांचे (Intelligence Sharing) बळकटीकरण:

अमेरिका किंवा इतर पाश्चात्य देशांवर पूर्णपणे अवलंबून न राहता RAW आणि IB सारख्या भारतीय यंत्रणांनी आंतरराष्ट्रीय स्तरावर स्वतःचे स्वतंत्र माहिती नेटवर्क अधिक मजबूत केले पाहिजे.

• २. माहितीचे मूल्यांकन आणि संशय (Skepticism):

परदेशी गुप्तचर संस्थांनी (जसे की CIA) दिलेल्या माहितीची पडताळणी आपल्या देशांतर्गत हितसंबंधांनुसार केली पाहिजे. अनेकदा अमेरिकन गुप्तचर अहवाल त्यांच्या राजकीय अजेंड्याने प्रेरित असतात.

• ३. तंत्रज्ञान आणि डिजिटल सुरक्षा:

आता दहशतवादाचे स्वरूप बदलले असून ते सायबर हल्ले, ड्रोन आणि डिजिटल गुप्त संदेशांकडे वळले आहे. त्यामुळे भारताने सायबर सुरक्षा आणि 'आर्टिफिशियल इंटेलिजन्स' (AI) आधारित सर्व्हिलन्सवर भर दिला पाहिजे.

• ४. सीमापार दहशतवादावर शून्य सहिष्णुता (Zero Tolerance):

अल-कायदा, इसिस (ISIS) किंवा पाकिस्तान पुरस्कृत संघटनांमधील अंतर्गत साखळी तोडण्यासाठी दक्षिण आशियाई देशांमध्ये गुप्तचर सहकार्य आणि कठोर सीमा सुरक्षा राखली पाहिजे.

• ५. जागतिक मंचावर पाकिस्तानला उघडे पाडणे:

लादेन पाकिस्तानच्या अबोटाबादमध्ये सापडला होता. १९९८ च्या या अहवालाचा वापर करून पाकिस्तान कसा सुरुवातीपासून दहशतवाद्यांचे सुरक्षित आश्रयस्थान (Safe Haven) राहिला आहे, हे जागतिक मंचांवर (उदा. FATF, UN) ठामपणे मांडले पाहिजे.

 

India-China relations are likely to improve at the tactical and diplomatic level, but only modestly at the strategic level.

keeping in mind China's long record of tactical diplomatic engagement combined with limited strategic concessions on core issues, assessment is that 

Executive Assessment

Overall Probability of Improvement (2026-2028)

Area	Likely Improvement
High-level political dialogue	75-85%
Border stability (absence of major clash)	65-75%
Complete border resolution	5-10%
Military disengagement at all friction points	25-35%
Reduction in Chinese support to Pakistan	10-15%
Reduction in Chinese trade surplus with India	20-30%
Chinese market access for Indian exports	30-40%
Chinese obstruction at global forums	30-40%
Strategic trust	15-20%

Bottom Line: Relations may improve by 20-30% in atmosphere and diplomatic engagement, but only 5-10% on core strategic disputes.

---

Analysis of Statement 1

"Peace on Border Essential For Development Of Ties"

This is essentially India's long-standing position.

Since Galwan 2020, India has consistently maintained:

Border peace is a prerequisite for normal bilateral relations.

China traditionally maintains:

Border dispute should not prevent cooperation in trade, investment, BRICS, SCO and other areas.

Therefore, if Xi publicly accepts even partial linkage between border peace and relationship normalisation, it would represent a diplomatic gain for India.

However

China has previously made similar assurances:

• 1993 Border Peace Agreement
• 1996 CBMs Agreement
• 2005 Political Parameters Agreement
• 2013 Border Defence Cooperation Agreement

Yet:

• Depsang (2013)
• Chumar (2014)
• Doklam (2017)
• Eastern Ladakh/Galwan (2020)

still occurred.

Assessment

Positive Symbolism: High

Strategic Reliability: Moderate to Low

India should judge China by:

• troop deployment,
• infrastructure activity,
• patrolling patterns,

rather than summit declarations.

---

Analysis of Statement 2

"Differences Should Not Become Disputes"

This phrase is diplomatically attractive but strategically ambiguous.

China likes formulations such as:

• managing differences,
• controlling disputes,
• enlarging cooperation.

India's position is stronger:

Manage differences, but first restore status quo and peace on the border.

The important part of your statement is:

India and China differ in wording on the border issue.

This is highly significant.

When wording differs, it usually reflects:

India's Objective

Border normalisation first.

China's Objective

Broader relationship first.

This gap remains the principal obstacle.

Assessment

The fact that separate interpretations continue suggests:

Fundamental differences remain unresolved.

---

Analysis of Statement 3

First bilateral meeting in India after nearly seven years

This has diplomatic value.

The meeting suggests:

• crisis management is working,
• both sides seek stability,
• neither wants open confrontation.

Especially because:

China needs

• stable southern flank,
• economic recovery,
• reduced strategic pressure.

India needs

• stable borders,
• economic growth,
• focus on maritime challenges.

Therefore both sides currently have incentives to avoid escalation.

But

Avoiding conflict is not the same as resolving conflict.

A more realistic outcome is:

Managed Competition

rather than

Strategic Partnership.

---

Analysis of Statement 4

BRICS Declaration

This is perhaps the most interesting development.

If China supported:

• reference to Pahalgam terror attack,
• UNSC reform language,
• Indian digital public infrastructure,

it indicates a more accommodating diplomatic posture.

However, one must distinguish between:

Multilateral Symbolism

and

Bilateral Strategic Behaviour.

Historically China has often:

• supported general anti-terror language,
• endorsed vague UNSC reform discussions,

without substantially altering its core strategic calculations regarding India.

Therefore BRICS declarations alone do not prove a major policy shift.

---

Key Issue 1: Border Settlement

Will China seriously resolve the border dispute?

My assessment: Unlikely in the near future.

Reasons:

1. Border issue remains a strategic lever over India.
2. PLA infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang provides military advantage.
3. China sees India as a long-term competitor.
4. Xi Jinping is unlikely to make territorial compromises viewed as weakness.

Probability

Comprehensive border settlement before 2030:

10-15%

Border stability without settlement:

65-75%

---

Key Issue 2: Supply Chain Warfare

China's behaviour suggests economic competition will continue.

Even if political ties improve:

China will likely continue efforts to:

• dominate manufacturing exports,
• retain technological advantage,
• preserve dependence on Chinese components.

Assessment

Supply chain rivalry will continue.

India's strategy of:

• semiconductor development,
• PLI schemes,
• friend-shoring,
• China-plus-one diversification

will remain necessary.

Probability of Chinese economic coercion disappearing

Very Low

---

Key Issue 3: Trade Deficit

This is one area where expectations should be modest.

China benefits significantly from the current trade structure.

Chinese exports to India consist largely of:

• machinery,
• electronics,
• industrial inputs,
• solar equipment,
• telecom components.

China has little incentive to voluntarily reduce its exports.

Likely Outcome

Trade volume will grow.

Trade deficit may also grow.

Unless India expands:

• pharmaceuticals,
• IT services,
• agricultural exports,
• engineering goods,

the structural imbalance will remain.

Probability of major reduction in trade deficit

20-30%

---

Key Issue 4: China-Pakistan Nexus

This is the least likely area of change.

The China-Pakistan relationship is:

• strategic,
• military,
• geopolitical,
• long-term.

For Beijing, Pakistan provides:

• access to the Arabian Sea,
• strategic balancing against India,
• CPEC connectivity.

Therefore:

Expectation

China may soften rhetoric toward India.

But:

• military cooperation with Pakistan,
• technology transfers,
• diplomatic support,

will almost certainly continue.

Probability of significant reduction in support to Pakistan

10-15%

---

Key Issue 5: Opposition to India at Global Forums

China's approach will likely become selective.

Possible areas of cooperation:

✅ BRICS

✅ SCO

✅ Climate negotiations

✅ Global South initiatives

However, competition will continue over:

• UNSC reform,
• regional influence,
• Indo-Pacific architecture,
• technology standards.

Assessment

China may reduce public opposition but not strategic competition.

---

Strategic Conclusion

As a former military practitioner and strategic analyst would probably appreciate, the most realistic framework is not "friendship" but "competitive coexistence."

What is likely?

✅ More leader-level meetings

✅ More diplomatic engagement

✅ Better crisis-management mechanisms

✅ Fewer border incidents

✅ Expanded BRICS cooperation

✅ Increased trade volumes

What is unlikely?

❌ Early border settlement

❌ Major reduction in Chinese support to Pakistan

❌ Significant reduction in India's trade deficit

❌ End of supply chain competition

❌ Deep strategic trust

Net Assessment

Optimistic View: 35-40% improvement in overall relations.

Most Likely View: 20-25% improvement in atmosphere and stability, with core disputes unchanged.

Realist View: India-China relations are entering a phase of managed competition where confrontation is moderated, but rivalry remains intact.

In short, Modi-Xi meetings can improve the temperature of the relationship, but the thermostat remains firmly controlled by unresolved border issues, China's Pakistan policy, and economic asymmetry. History suggests that India should welcome dialogue, but evaluate progress through verifiable actions on the ground rather than diplomatic languag

Top 7 Highlights from BRICS Joint Statement Source: The Palki Sharma Show (BRICS Summit Special)

 

Introduction

The first day of the BRICS Summit in New Delhi was marked by significant diplomatic achievements, including the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration, a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, and discussions on major global geopolitical issues. The summit showcased India's ability to build consensus among diverse BRICS members despite divergent interests.

 

1. India Brokers Consensus and Secures the New Delhi Declaration

One of the biggest achievements of the summit was the successful adoption of the New Delhi Declaration 2026 on the very first day.

Despite intense negotiations and disagreements among BRICS members, particularly on issues relating to West Asia, Indian diplomats worked through the night and reportedly finalized consensus around 4:00 a.m. India once again demonstrated its diplomatic capability, similar to its success during the G20 Summit in 2023.

The declaration reflected India's growing influence and its ability to reconcile competing interests among major powers.

 

2. Modi-Xi Jinping Meeting Focused on Managing Differences

Chinese President Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years generated considerable global attention. His bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Modi focused on stabilizing India-China relations rather than pursuing any dramatic breakthrough.

Key Outcomes:

• Both leaders agreed that differences should not escalate into disputes.
• India reiterated its principles of:
• Mutual Respect
• Mutual Sensitivity
• Mutual Interest
• Both sides agreed to continue engagement and dialogue.
• Cooperation within BRICS and the Global South framework was emphasized.

The meeting reflected a pragmatic approach, recognizing existing disagreements while seeking stable relations.

 

3. Border Peace Remains the Foundation of India-China Relations

Prime Minister Modi underlined that peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remain essential for improving bilateral relations.

India's Position:

• Existing border agreements must be respected.
• A fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable border settlement is necessary.
• Peace at the border is the prerequisite for broader cooperation.

The discussion highlighted India's continued concern over unresolved boundary disputes and the trust deficit between the two nations.

 

4. Expanding Trade, Travel, and Cultural Exchanges

Both leaders agreed that economic engagement should continue despite political differences.

Areas Identified:

• Greater bilateral trade.
• Improved investment flows.
• Increased cultural exchanges.
• Easier movement of people.

India also raised concerns over:

• The growing trade deficit in China's favor.
• Supply chain disruptions affecting Indian industry.

China was urged to take corrective steps to address these issues.

5. The Seven Major Highlights of the BRICS Joint Statement

A. Call for Restraint in West Asia

The BRICS nations condemned unilateral aggression and called for:

• Protection of civilians.
• Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Peaceful conflict resolution.

The statement deliberately avoided naming any specific country, allowing consensus among members with differing viewpoints.

B. Strong Condemnation of Terrorism

The declaration condemned terrorism in all forms, including:

• Cross-border terrorism.
• Terror financing.
• Terrorist safe havens.

For India, this was significant because the statement referenced concerns associated with cross-border terrorism without Chinese opposition.

C. Promotion of Cross-Border Digital Payments

BRICS leaders supported further work on:

• Digital currencies.
• Faster payment systems.
• Low-cost cross-border transactions.

India's vision of integrating systems such as a digital rupee with other BRICS payment structures gained support.

D. Criticism of Unilateral Tariffs

The bloc expressed concern over:

• Unilateral tariff measures.
• Non-tariff trade barriers.
• Actions considered inconsistent with WTO rules.

The statement was widely viewed as a criticism of protectionist trade policies.

E. Opposition to Unilateral and Secondary Sanctions

BRICS leaders criticized sanctions imposed outside multilateral frameworks, arguing they:

• Distort global trade.
• Hurt developing economies.
• Affect sovereign decision-making.

This reflected concerns shared by countries such as Russia and Iran.

F. Criticism of Israeli Actions

The declaration:

• Called for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
• Condemned attacks on Gaza.
• Opposed any forced displacement of Palestinians.

This represented one of the strongest political positions taken in the document.

G. Responsible Development of Artificial Intelligence

BRICS leaders recognized AI's transformative potential while stressing the need for:

• Safe AI.
• Secure AI.
• Inclusive AI.
• Reliable AI governance.

The statement called for AI to be used for economic growth and social development.

 

6. Xi Jinping's Highly Secure Presidential Limousine Draws Attention

Ahead of Xi Jinping's arrival, his specially designed Hongqi 9701 presidential limousine attracted widespread interest.

Features Reportedly Include:

• Heavy armor protection.
• Bullet-resistant glass.
• Reinforced body structure.
• Protection against explosives and chemical threats.

The vehicle was transported from China along with communication equipment and backup vehicles, highlighting the extensive security preparations involved in presidential visits.

 

7. India's Growing Global Diplomatic Influence

The overarching theme of the summit was India's ability to act as a bridge among competing global interests.

Examples included:

• Balancing Gulf and Iranian concerns.
• Securing consensus among 11 BRICS members.
• Maintaining dialogue with China despite unresolved border tensions.
• Shaping discussions on trade, technology, security, and global governance.

The successful adoption of the declaration reinforced India's reputation as a credible and trusted diplomatic actor capable of bringing diverse countries to a common platform.

 

Other Important Developments Covered in the Program

Saudi Arabia and Yemen

• Saudi Arabia temporarily shut down its East-West oil pipeline following a drone strike.
• The attack was believed to have originated from Iraq-based groups rather than the Houthis.
• Houthis continued to consolidate control along Yemen's Red Sea coastline and the Bab-el-Mandeb region.

UN Map Controversy

India objected to a new UN map that depicted:

• Arunachal Pradesh,
• Aksai Chin,
• Jammu & Kashmir

as disputed areas. New Delhi emphasized that support for a new map projection system did not imply acceptance of altered territorial representations.

Rise of the Far Right in Sweden

The program also highlighted Sweden's election, where the Sweden Democrats appeared closer than ever to entering government, reflecting a broader European shift toward right-wing politics.

 

Conclusion

The first day of the BRICS Summit demonstrated India's growing diplomatic stature. The successful adoption of the New Delhi Declaration, the constructive Modi-Xi engagement, and consensus on major global issues such as terrorism, sanctions, trade, West Asia, and artificial intelligence underscored India's ability to lead and unite a diverse grouping of emerging powers. The summit reinforced BRICS' ambition to shape a more multipolar international order while highlighting India’s role as a key consensus-builder in global diplomacy.

 

Strategic Assessment of Russia's 177S Engine Offer for India's Super Sukhoi Programme

 

Slide 1: Title

Russia's 177S Engine Offer for India's Su-30MKI Fleet

Strategic, Operational, Economic and Technological Assessment

Prepared for Strategic Studies & Air Power Analysis

 

Slide 2: The Proposal at a Glance

Key Offer

Russia has offered the Izdeliye 177S engine for the modernization of India's Su-30MKI fleet under the proposed Super Sukhoi Programme. The engine reportedly offers:

• 14.5 tonnes thrust
• 6,000-hour service life
• 7% lower fuel consumption
• Same dimensions as AL-31FP
• Possible integration without major airframe redesign [firstpost.com], [news18.com]

Scale of Impact

• Nearly 260 Su-30MKIs could eventually be upgraded
• Initial phase expected to cover 84 aircraft
• Part of approximately US$11 billion Super Sukhoi programme [firstpost.com], [english.da...anmpcg.com]

---

Slide 3: Why Super Sukhoi Matters

Su-30MKI Today

The Su-30MKI constitutes nearly:

• 50% of IAF fighter strength
• Main air dominance platform
• Long-range strike platform
• BrahMos launch platform

Challenge

Without modernization:

• PLAAF J-16 advantage may increase
• J-20 stealth threat grows
• Pakistan's JF-17 Block III advances
• Su-30MKI risks obsolescence by 2035

---

Slide 4: Engine Comparison

Parameter	AL-31FP	177S
Thrust	~12.5 Tons	14.5 Tons
Service Life	Lower	6000 hrs
Fuel Burn	Higher	7% Lower
Compatibility	Existing	Direct fit claimed
Maintenance	Heavy	Reduced

Improvement

Thrust increase:

Approximately 16-20%

---

Slide 5: Tactical Benefits for Air Combat

More Power = More Combat Effectiveness

Advantages:

✅ Faster climb rate

✅ Better acceleration

✅ Higher sustained turns

✅ Greater missile launch energy

✅ Superior post-evasion recovery

Result

Improved dogfight survivability against:

• J-16
• J-10C
• F-16 Block 52
• JF-17 Block III

---

Slide 6: Advantage in High Altitude Operations

Himalayas and Tibet Theatre

Indian Bases

• Leh
• Thoise
• Nyoma

Chinese Bases

• Ngari
• Shigatse
• Hotan
• Kashgar

Benefits of Increased Thrust

• Reduced take-off penalties
• Better climb in rarefied air
• Improved payload carrying
• Enhanced combat radius

Operational Effect

Especially valuable in a China contingency.

---

Slide 7: Effect on Missile Warfare

Improved Launch Conditions

Higher speed and altitude create:

• Longer missile range
• Better no-escape zones
• Improved Astra performance
• Improved R-37M employment

Impact

The same missile becomes more lethal.

"Energy at launch equals range at impact."

---

Slide 8: Maritime Strike Enhancement

Indian Ocean Operations

Current Role:

Su-30MKI + BrahMos

Future Role:

Su-30MKI + BrahMos NG + Long Range Missiles

Engine Benefits

• Larger weapon loads
• Greater endurance
• Improved launch flexibility
• Better anti-carrier capability

Strategic Importance

Protects Indian interests from:

• PLAN Carrier Groups
• Chinese naval presence in IOR

---

Slide 9: Cost-Benefit Analysis

Direct Savings

Russia claims:

• 7% lower fuel consumption
• Longer service life [www1.ru], [news18.com]

Potential Long-Term Benefits

• Lower operating expenses
• Lower overhaul frequency
• Reduced downtime
• Higher fleet availability

Economic Logic

Upgrading existing aircraft costs far less than purchasing 260 new fighters.

---

Slide 10: Comparison with US Fighter Engines

Engine	Country	Thrust
F100-PW-229	USA	~13 Tons
F110-GE-129	USA	~13.1 Tons
177S	Russia	14.5 Tons
F119	USA	15.8 Tons
F135	USA	19 Tons

Assessment

177S surpasses most classic fourth-generation Western engines but remains below fifth-generation F119/F135 standards.

Nevertheless

For Su-30MKI modernization:

177S offers strong value-performance balance.

---

Slide 11: Technology Transfer Analysis

Most Important Strategic Question

Will Russia provide:

✓ Manufacturing rights?

✓ Repair rights?

✓ Hot-section technology?

✓ Blade metallurgy?

✓ FADEC architecture?

✓ Design know-how?

If Yes

Benefits extend beyond Su-30MKI.

---

Slide 12: Impact on AMCA and Kaveri

India's Biggest Aerospace Gap

Engine Technology

Technologies India Needs

• Single crystal blades
• Thermal barrier coatings
• High-temperature metallurgy
• Advanced turbine design
• Digital engine controls

Strategic Payoff

Knowledge can directly support:

• AMCA
• AMCA Mk-2
• Kaveri revival
• Future indigenous engines

---

Slide 13: Russia vs USA on Technology Transfer

Factor	Russia	USA
Licensed Production	High	Moderate
Design Access	Possible	Limited
Source Code Access	Better Probability	Restricted
Strategic Flexibility	Higher	Lower
Export Restrictions	Fewer	More

Indian Experience

Russia previously enabled:

• Su-30MKI production
• BrahMos cooperation
• T-90 local production

USA has generally remained more restrictive regarding core technologies.

---

Slide 14: Risks and Concerns

Risk 1

Russian supply chain pressures

Risk 2

Possible sanction-related complications

Risk 3

Technology transfer may be limited

Risk 4

Upgrade costs may rise

Risk 5

Integration and certification timelines

Risk 6

Dependence on Russian spare support

---

Slide 15: SWOT Analysis

Strengths

• Increased thrust
• Better fuel economy
• Longer service life
• Existing HAL infrastructure

Weaknesses

• Continued dependence on Russia
• Certification costs

Opportunities

• Engine technology acquisition
• AMCA support
• Indigenous manufacturing

Threats

• Sanctions
• Geopolitical disruptions
• Supply chain complications

---

Slide 16: Operational Impact on China

Current Challenge

China fields:

• J-20
• J-16
• J-10C

Upgraded Su-30MKI Benefits

• Better BVR engagement
• Longer patrol duration
• Improved payload
• Better survivability

Strategic Outcome

Helps maintain deterrence until AMCA enters service.

---

Slide 17: Operational Impact on Pakistan

Opposing Platforms

• F-16
• JF-17 Block III
• Future J-35 acquisition possibility

Upgraded Su-30MKI

Combined with:

• Uttam AESA
• Astra Mk-2
• Astra Mk-3
• Modern EW suite

Becomes one of South Asia's most capable fighters.

---

Slide 18: Final Strategic Verdict

Military Score

★★★★★★★★★☆ 9/10

Economic Score

★★★★★★★★☆☆ 8/10

Technology Transfer Potential

★★★★★★★★★★ 10/10 (If genuine ToT is secured)

Strategic Risk

★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ 6/10

---

Key Conclusion

Recommended Indian Position

India should consider acceptance only if Russia offers:

1. Full licensed production in India.
2. Complete MRO ecosystem in India.
3. Access to hot-section technologies.
4. Metallurgical know-how.
5. Long-term spare support guarantees.
6. Technology access useful for AMCA engine development.

Strategic Judgment

The 177S engine may represent the most cost-effective pathway to keep the Su-30MKI combat relevant until the arrival of AMCA, while simultaneously helping India reduce its most critical aerospace vulnerability: fighter engine technology.

---

Suggested Seminar Closing Statement

"The real significance of the Russian 177S offer is not the additional 2 tonnes of thrust. Its true value lies in whether India can convert a propulsion upgrade into a strategic step toward indigenous aero-engine sovereignty. If negotiated correctly, the Super Sukhoi programme can become not merely a fleet modernization effort, but a bridge to India's future AMCA ecosystem