India rebooting into a middle-income economy

 

India is undergoing a significant economic transformation, with the fiscal year FY24 expected to conclude with a robust 7.5 percent GDP growth. The noteworthy announcement of an 8.4 percent GDP growth for the third quarter of fiscal 2024, surpassing earlier estimates, reflects positive changes in the 'real economy.' Structural reforms over the past decade and a relatively corruption-free environment have contributed to this growth. The Indian stock market, now surpassing Hong Kong with over $4 trillion in market cap, has reached record highs on the Sensex and Nifty, signaling a shift from past perceptions of exuberance or bubble-like behavior.

 

India stands out globally, with 183 stocks tripling in value over the last decade, each worth $1 billion or more. Surpassing the US and China in this regard, India's stock market is gaining international attention. The debt and bond market, propelled by significant foreign investor inflows, further strengthens India's position. Foreign investment indices reallocating weight from China to India, coupled with positive ratings from global financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, indicate growing confidence in India's economic prospects.

 

The landscape of India's stock market has evolved, with Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) and mutual funds contributing to its buoyancy. The Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) share has reduced to 40 percent, signaling a shift in market dynamics. India is emerging as a standalone 'asset class,' driven by impressive growth figures in both private and public sector companies.

 

Prominent figures like John Thomas Chambers foresee India becoming the world's largest economy by 2047. Chambers anticipates a strengthened partnership between the US and India, with a focus on mainstreaming artificial intelligence. The expected 7.5 percent GDP growth in FY24 sets the stage for post-2024 economic reforms, as the NDA is anticipated to secure a majority in the general elections.

 

Infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and initiatives like 'Make in India' in defense manufacturing contribute to India's economic trajectory. Despite the need for agricultural reforms, India has achieved a food surplus and increased exports, showcasing overall economic progress.

 

Renowned economists Surjit Bhalla and Arvind Virmani classify India as a middle-income economy, poised to become the third-largest global economy by 2030. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections reflect a growing legitimate economy, providing a positive outlook for fiscal stability. The decline in absolute poverty to 5 percent of the population and inclusive growth trends indicate a positive socio-economic shift.

 

Rural consumption figures nearing urban levels and increased spending on non-essentials highlight rising aspirations among the population. With favorable economic indicators, India appears poised for a transformative period leading up to its centenary in 2047, barring unforeseen geopolitical events