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Saturday 6 April 2013

LeT fighters, recruitment patterns, training and where they die

NEW DELHI: Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is not going away anytime soon. The deadly terror group, whose prime target is India, will endure because it has a unique ability to attract high-quality jihadis.

A new study by West Point has built the first sociological profile of LeT militants, chilling in its revelations. Conducted by Don Rassler, Christine Fair, Anirban Ghosh, Arif Jamal and Nadia Shoeb, the study has dissected biographies of 900 dead LeT militants (published by LeT's own publications) to answer the following questions: background of LeT fighters, recruitment patterns, training and where they die.

Mostly, the study highlights the high degree of trust between Pakistanis and the LeT, which contributes to the outfit having a veritable unending stream of cadres.

The average LeT militant joins the group after turning 16 and is dead around 21. In just over five years, they have undergone training, fought and killed before being killed themselves.

The scholars conclude, "Some of Pakistan's best educated young men are being dispatched to die in this unending conflict with India."

The vast majority of LeT's fighters are recruited from Pakistan's Punjab province, the study has found. This was well known, but the spread of the recruitment topography shows that the districts from where LeT recruits its cadres are also the recruiting grounds for the Pakistani Army. "While LeT's recruitment is diversified across the north, central and southern parts of the Punjab, the highest concentration of LeT fighters have come (in order of frequency) from the districts of Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Kasur, Sialkot, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Khanewal, and Multan."

Contradicting conventional wisdom that it is the uneducated and poor who are perforce drawn to LeT's world of jihad, the study shows that about 44% of LeT's cadres are matriculates. Their religious education comes after their regular education. The general notion is that the lack of secular education system in Pakistan's rural areas leads children into madrassa where they are brainwashed and indoctrinated. The study shows that almost half of the fighters receive a secular education before their religious training. The general level of education among Pakistani males is lower.

LeT militants are mostly (around 47%) trained in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Muzaffarabad is also the location for LeT's specialized training module, Daura-e-khaas. Next in importance is Muaskar-e-Taiba in Afghanistan. LeT may be a Pakistani entity but it was created in Kunar province in Afghanistan, and unlike other Deobandi groups, LeT is of the Ahle-Hadith persuasion.

LeT's wide acceptability across the spectrum is supported by the fact that their recruitment has the blessings of families. The study found "12 different channels of LeT recruitment, the most common forms of which include recruitment via: a current LeT member (20%), a family member (20%), mosque or madrassa (17%), LeT speech or literature (12%) and friends (5%)."

Recruitment on family recommendations has increased. "Since 2000 there has been a strong upward trend in recruitment via family members and by 2004, this channel contributed to over 40% of LeT recruitment."

This, the study says, is largely due to LeT's strong community presence and local activity. "LeT's local activity and infrastructure are and will remain the key source of its strength, even if the group decides to become more active in the international arena," the authors say.

Where do LeT fighters die? An overwhelming 94% die in Jammu & Kashmir, even though in recent years, Afghanistan has become a theatre for LeT jihadis. In J&K, Kupwara has seen the maximum number of LeT deaths. Baramulla, Poonch, Badgam, Rajouri, Bandipore, Doda, Anantnag, Srinagar and Udhampur make up the rest in descending order. The study observes that Kupwara has been declining in importance in the past few years, while Baramulla and Poonch have been gaining relevance.

Interestingly, in 2005, Pervez Musharraf, then president of Pakistan, in his first meeting with Manmohan Singh in New York asked that India withdraw its forces from Kupwara and Baramulla. These two districts share a 363 km-long border with PoK along the LoC.

If this study is correct, it is clear that LeT cannot be removed by military means. That holds lessons for counter-terrorism strategists in India and the US

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