“Iran Holds Almost All The Cards”, Prof John Mearsheimer On Iran Vs Trump, Israel | Times Now World

 

Prof. John Mearsheimer argues that the U.S.–Israel war against Iran has backfired badly, leaving Iran holding “almost all the cards” militarily, economically, and diplomatically, while the U.S. and Israel face strategic defeat and rising long‑term dangers in the Middle East.

Why the war started

• Mearsheimer says Israel “bamboozled” Donald Trump into launching the war, with Netanyahu and Mossad promising a quick “shock and awe” decapitation campaign that would topple the regime in Tehran.
• He stresses that the U.S. “deep state” and senior officials were largely against the war, warning there was no viable military strategy and that it was unlikely to work.

U.S. military predicament

• The U.S. Navy cannot operate near Iran or the Strait of Hormuz without unacceptable risk from Iranian missiles and drones, so its power is largely unusable where it matters most.
• U.S. regional bases have been badly damaged or destroyed, ground combat forces are far too small to invade Iran, and the U.S. has suffered major aircraft losses in a single operation—worse than any day since Vietnam.
• Washington is burning through high‑end munitions and diverting assets like THAAD, Patriot, and Marine units from Asia, which undermines the broader strategy of containing China.

Why Iran “holds almost all the cards”

• Iran can choke off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, giving it enormous leverage over the global economy, including oil, gas, and roughly one‑third of the world’s fertilizers during planting season.
• Tehran and its allies can devastate GCC states by destroying energy infrastructure and especially desalination plants, and they can also inflict major damage on Israel; this makes Iran’s deterrent position very strong.
• Because Iran can escalate more effectively at every rung, Mearsheimer says Trump cannot “go up the escalation ladder” and has no attractive exit except effectively admitting defeat.

Political outcome and “defeat”

• Mearsheimer notes that U.S.–Israeli war aims were: ending Iranian enrichment, eliminating long‑range missiles, stopping support to Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthis, and achieving regime change, plus “unconditional surrender.” None of these goals has been met.
• Instead, Iran and its partners have gained control of the Strait of Hormuz and advanced maximalist demands such as sanctions relief and U.S. base withdrawals; accepting even part of these terms would amount to a clear U.S. defeat.
• He interprets Trump’s later acceptance of the Iranian “10‑point plan” as tantamount to conceding defeat after first issuing a genocidal threat to “destroy Iran as a civilization.”

Consequences for Israel and future risks

• For Israel, Mearsheimer calls the outcome “bordering on cataclysmic”: Iran is stronger, still supports Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis, and U.S.–Israeli relations plus the image of the Israel lobby have been badly damaged in American public opinion.
• He fears that, believing Iran to be an existential threat and seeing conventional options fail, Israel may eventually resort to nuclear weapons to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear deterrent, and he doubts the U.S. would stop it.
• Mearsheimer concludes that Israel is an “albatross around America’s neck” and that the coming years in the Middle East will be extremely dangerous because of the strategic situation created by this war.