Rising Houthi Threats Imperil Red Sea Chokepoints, Prompting Global Shipping Concerns

Efforts are underway to safeguard freedom of navigation, particularly in the Red Sea's critical maritime routes and chokepoints like the Bab-El Mandab. Recent Houthi attacks on various ships have raised concerns about the security of this vital sea passage. Since 2015, the conflict between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia has demonstrated the Houthis' ability to disrupt oil production and infrastructure, prompting a reassessment of security measures in the Gulf countries.

 

Iran's support for the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah complicates the situation. Despite efforts to broker a Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement, tensions persist. The Houthis, aligned with Hamas, have targeted Israeli ships and those of its supporters, escalating the risk of a broader conflict. The international community is responding with an increased naval presence in the Red Sea, led by the United States.

 

The U.S. Defense Secretary, during a visit to Tel Aviv, announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, a ten-nation maritime task force aimed at countering Houthi attacks from Yemen. This initiative, potentially under the umbrella of the 39-member Combined Maritime Force, emphasizes the need for collective action due to the international implications of Houthi actions.

 

Shipping lanes in the Red Sea, including the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, carry a significant portion of global sea-borne crude and facilitate 40% of Europe's trade to Asia and the Middle East. Recent incidents have led companies like BP and Maersk to redirect shipping away from the Red Sea, causing increased insurance premiums and transportation costs. Estimates suggest a potential rise of over 40%, impacting oil prices and global supply chains, already strained by reduced maritime piracy.

 

The geopolitical contestation in the crowded Red Sea and Gulf of Aden involves major powers such as the U.S., Russia, China, India, and Europe. The Houthis' selective targeting of Russian and Chinese ships adds complexity to the situation. The threats are genuine, requiring international cooperation, as witnessed during the peak of anti-piracy campaigns.

 

While the U.S. has attempted to create regional security architectures, its focus on the Indo-Pacific has hindered progress. Efforts to foster Israel-GCC joint naval exercises faced setbacks due to the Israel-Hamas war and U.S. support for Palestine, creating tensions that may stall normalization and collaboration in the near term.

Disruptions: The New Democracy-2.0-Gen NITIN P GADKARI-DEC 21

 

The Winter session of parliament is recording new lows in the happenings in the parliament. It hurts every citizen to see their elected representatives stoop to the lowest levels of public behaviour. The government responds like an authority with no option but what is stated in the rule book. The stalemate is detrimental to the Indian democratic norms. Will it change? It is anybody’s guess. Yet, to highlight this dilemma, the piece is written below. It has national security implications, too, as every breach in the parliament is a tool in the hands of the ‘Enemy of our State’. I hope the readers would at least tacitly agree with what has been expressed. Do read. Thank You.

Disruptions: The New Democracy-2.0

Is the Indian democracy losing its essence? The fundamental principle of democracy is the government of the people, by the people, and for the people seems to be fading in contemporary India. While elections symbolise a functioning democracy, refusal to accept the popular mandate by a few raises questions about the democratic process. In a democracy, the government is a function of the people through the ballot. But if a section of society refuses to accept the constitutional process followed by an incumbent government, does it not erode the pillars of democracy?

The above dilemma seems to be haunting the Indian state more and more every passing day. A political party could win elections yet find it difficult to govern, as the other political parties refuse to accept the functioning of the executive. The Legislature, Executive, and Judiciary are the three pillars of a functioning democracy. The task of the three pillars is to create conditions for its citizens to live better and prosper. These organs of the state are independent of each other yet are expected to work towards the common goal of the welfare of its citizens.

Non-Productivity in Parliament

In the system of multiparty democracy, the legislature (The Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and the Parliament) plays a vital role as it represents the will of the power through the electorate. The business of the houses is conducted through laid down guidelines. The parliament legislates how the country is governed based on the 'Constitution and Directive Principles of the State Policy'. The parliament, therefore, is called the seat of power in a democracy. Lately, the parliament has become a place of expressing dissent, leading to disruptions. In every session of parliament, functional democracy becomes a spectacle of political conflict that rages between the ruling and the opposition benches. The business of the House of debating on the performance and introduction of new bills becomes a mere agenda on paper as the time that is needed to debate and discuss is wasted in protests and a Tug-of-War contest between the treasury and opposition benches. Each section throws charges against the other and holds the other side responsible for the chaos that descends the houses. The budget session of 2023-24, i.e. the current year, was the worst in the last five years and the second worst in the previous ten years.

 

In terms of hours in the budget session of 2023, out of the allotted 140 hours of scheduled work, the Lok Sabha functioned for only 46 hours, which is 33% of the scheduled time, and the Rajya Sabha functioned for 32 hours, which is 24% of the scheduled time. The legislative productivity was more dismal. Legislative productivity is defined as introducing, debating, negating or accepting bills in the parliament. In the Lok Sabha, the legislative business amounted to 1.1% in productivity and Zero per cent in the Rajya Sabha. The non-legislative business for Budget Session 2023 took the lion's share of the parliament's time. Refer chart given below:

 

 

Erosion of Faith

 

The above demonstrates the erosion of the sanctity of parliament over the years. There is a growing feeling that politics has degenerated to abysmally low levels; consequently, for the political parties and their members, it is a norm to defy all moral codes of conduct of public behaviour. The slogan 'You may win the votes but can never govern' is gaining credence. Time and again, this slogan's truism has been on display. Be it the farm bill, the UCC, or the CAA & NRC. The opposition parties have not allowed the government to pass any of these except the CAA. The opposition claims the blocking was because the Bill's introduction was without any prior debate. Their contention is that in its current form, the bills are fraught with dangers, for they seek to take away from citizens their fundamental rights. Many of these bills have invited widespread demonstrations in various parts of the country. Opposition parties have followed a simple formula: What cannot be stopped in the parliament is opposed on the streets. Thus, the process of legislation and execution both have obstacles for the government to surmount.

 

The above has eroded the functioning of democracy in our country. Who is to take the blame? It would be unwise to blame the opposition every time for the fiasco that occurs every day on the streets or in parliament. There needs to be more common ground between the opposition and the government. Neither is willing to concede any ground. By the power of numbers in the two houses of the parliament, the government bulldozes with the passing of bills without debate. On the other hand, opposition through disruptions and civil disturbances obstructs the smooth implementation of the bills passed. The opposition's agenda to restrict the current ruling dispensation from returning to power in the next elections results in unsavoury methods, leading to conflict and chaos.

 

If the gathering of the opposition parties under the INDIA banner gives them hope to fight the ruling dispensation in the next general elections, the defeat of the main opposition parties in the recent four state elections dampens their spirits. Such opposing outcomes make matters worse. As seen in this year's (2023) winter session in the parliament, it has resulted in an ugly situation. An unprecedented 141 opposition party members stand suspended in the parliament. Under such circumstances, any bills introduced or passed in the parliament are termed 'Draconian'. It is unfair to criticise the opposition as it is hard to justify the passage of bills without discussion. Yet it is hard to criticise the government when opposition members storm the well inside the House despite repeated warnings. Outside the parliament, opposition MPs mock the speaker of Rajya Sabha. It's 'Tamasha on the Streets' in its worst avatar. The sanctity of the parliament and the functionaries is eroded beyond repair.

 

Suspended Opposition MPs conduct mock Parliament sesssion; TMC MP Kalyan Bannerjee mimics Jagdeep Dhankhar

How does an ordinary citizen react? In sheer disgust, they remain mute spectators when their representatives mock their vote. The irony is that no mechanism is available to a commoner to direct his grievance. Citizens expect their representatives to function more civilly and see more cordial relations between political leaders across the divide. Such precedents exist when opposite party leaders wined and dined together outside the parliamentary hours. Yet, in the current political environment, such happenings are unheard of. The flip side of such politics is the erosion of Values of democracy in the minds of ordinary citizens.

 

Is there a threat to national Security?

 

Yes, there is. The happenings on 13 December 2023, the anniversary of an attack on the parliament by a youth brigade inside and outside, lay bare the chinks that exist in guarding the parliament against outside threats. Who is to be blamed for the lapse? Only time will tell if the findings of the Investigative Committee are disclosed to the public. It does not matter if the MP issuing the pass was from the ruling benches or the opposition; that the Security could be subverted is a red flag. That it's a matter of grave breach of Security is forgotten in politics. The opposition claims the breach occurred due to a lapse from a sitting ruling party MP, and the government refuses to make a statement on how the breach occurred. Result: A field day for the offenders and their Handlers. Any breach in Security is a new weapon in the armoury of the enemy of the state. It forms part of a data bank they would use someday and come to haunt the Indian state, as it happened on 07 October 2023, when Hamas surprised the best intelligence service in the world: Mossad.

 

Conclusion

 

The current state of politics in India is detrimental to the country's democratic traditions. Not only has it created a big void in the amicable business of the state in the parliament, it has resulted in the government's lack of implementation of well-intentioned reforms on the ground. There is a constant lack of consensus on parliamentary affairs. Daily disruptions are leading to the suspension of the MPs. The suspension reduces the strength of the House. It lowers the power and intent of the parliament, which flourishes in debate and discussions. Lowering or lessening the debates is detrimental to parliamentary democracy. Daily new lows in the MPs' behaviour erode the people's confidence in the functioning of democracy. Both the government and the opposition are responsible. The government is more complicit in this matter than the opposition. Being the bigger authority, it must show more accommodation than the opposition. But simple principles of dignity which apply to ordinary citizens scarcely apply to authorities. Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac. It doesn't matter at what cost it comes. Amidst this, the common man continues to repose faith in democracy. God forbid if it is lost, it would take many ‘Springs’ to gain it

RELENT LESS- information warfare against India By Section of western media

A full-fledged information warfare has been launched against India by elements inimical to its interests. Suddenly news reports are popping up internationally about how the India has been wanting “to sort out” the Gurpatwant Singh Pannun problem. The latest media report is about a “leaked” “Ministry of External Affairs memo” speaking of cracking down on “Khalistanis”, by listing the potential targets including Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed in Canada in June. The MEA has rubbished the claim by calling the memo fabricated and part of a “sustained disinformation campaign against India”, by using a media outlet “known for propagating fake narratives peddled by Pakistani intelligence”. It’s becoming increasingly clear that these attempts are escalating in order to add weight to the fiction of a “rogue Indian government” plotting to kill  Mahatma Pannun on American soil.

The narrative of India carrying out “transnational repression” is gaining currency, and has the potential to have some impact on the strategic partnership between India and the United States. 

The mainstream media in the US, does not make any mention of his threats to bomb Air India, the Indian Parliament or ordering hits on Indian diplomats. Surely these supposedly credible western media outlets are not so information-challenged that their research did not throw up facts about Pannun’s call to violence when writing articles on him. Surely death threats cannot be brushed under the carpet by describing these as freedom of speech. What’s going on is an attempt to influence American policy and opinion makers. In a very insidious manner western media is trying to glorify the Khalistani movement as a struggle against India for self-determination and justice. 

In fact, this seems to be a case of the ISI, with backing from the Chinese are trying to derail India-US relations and this time with some western support. 

There is another dimension to this information warfare, which is working at a much subtler level by instilling doubts on American minds about India as a trusted partner against China. The buzz in US think-tanks apparently is: India cannot be trusted for it will never stand with the US when it comes to any possible military confrontation with China. To think that this is being said about India, the only country in the world that has shown the appetite to fight back the Chinese  in Galwan inflicting large number of casualties to the extent of stationing its soldiers in the icy heights of the Himalayas against the PLA for over three years. Interestingly, the seeds of this doubt were planted by some Indian origin people in the US, and the American ignorance about India has been doing the rest of the job.

The question on Indian minds is, whether, or not, the Biden White House has the appetite and the competence to rein in the anti-India lobbies and interest groups in Washington D.C., as well as those in Biden’s own administration running their agendas against India.

पुंच राजौरी मध्ये दहशतवादी हल्ले का होत आहेत एक विष्लेशन २०/१२/२३

Pakistan seeing a targeted assassination streak of terrorists 22 dec 23

1. Pakistan has been seeing a targeted assassination streak of most wanted terrorists orchestrated by unknown gunmen, do you think that this is an internal rivalry between terrorist organization for gaining prominence just like a gangwar?

However, it is not uncommon for criminal or terrorist organizations to engage in internal power struggles, rivalries, or conflicts to gain prominence or control over resources. In some cases, such rivalries can lead to targeted assassinations or violence within the organization or between different groups. These conflicts can be driven by various factors, including ideological differences, territorial disputes, control over illicit activities, or personal ambitions.

If there is a streak of targeted assassinations of wanted terrorists in Pakistan, it is possible that it could be a result of internal rivalries within terrorist organizations or other criminal groups. However, without specific information about the incidents and the groups involved, it is difficult to make a conclusive assessment.

2. The terrorists that had been protected by Pakistan army for a long time are now being killed one by one, the last of these targets was poisoned inside a Pakistani prison do you think that this is the incapability of Pakistan army to handle the security situation in their country? 

Intelligence failures or security gaps: If terrorists are being targeted and killed within Pakistani prisons, it could indicate potential intelligence failures or security breaches within the prison system. This could raise questions about the effectiveness of security measures and the ability to prevent such incidents.

Government efforts against terrorism: It's also possible that these targeted killings are a result of increased government efforts to combat terrorism and dismantle terrorist networks. If the government is actively pursuing and apprehending terrorists, it could lead to such encounters or incidents.

3. What is your take on the future of Pakistan’s security situation?

4. how good or bad do you think are these killings for India as Pakistan has been blaming India’s RAW for these killings again and again?

USA Launches Red Sea Force as Ships Reroute to Avoid Attacks by Houthi Terrorists

In response to the growing threats posed by Houthi terrorists in the Red Sea region, the United States has taken a significant step by launching a Red Sea force. This force aims to provide protection to commercial and military vessels that have been rerouting their paths to avoid attacks. The necessity for this force arises from the increasing attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea, which has serious implications for international trade, regional stability, and global security.

 Necessity for the Red Sea Force:

The decision to establish a Red Sea force is driven by several compelling reasons. Firstly, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have intensified their attacks on civilian and military vessels passing through this strategic waterway. These attacks not only pose a direct threat to the lives of seafarers but also disrupt global trade flows, as the Red Sea is a vital international shipping route connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. Safeguarding this crucial maritime pathway is essential to maintain the stability of the global economy.

 The Houthi rebels' possession of advanced weaponry, including missiles and drones, has significantly increased their operational range and effectiveness. This has allowed them to target ships at greater distances, putting a larger number of vessels at risk. The Red Sea force will help deter and counter these attacks, ensuring the safe passage of ships and protecting maritime interests.

 Implications of the Red Sea Force:

The launch of the Red Sea force carries several implications for regional and global dynamics. Firstly, it demonstrates the commitment of the United States to maintaining freedom of navigation and upholding international maritime law. By actively protecting vessels in the Red Sea, the U.S. sends a strong message to aggressors that attacks on commercial and military ships will not go unanswered.

This move has broader geopolitical implications. It highlights the United States' dedication to supporting its allies and partners in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which heavily rely on the Red Sea for their economic and security interests. By securing the Red Sea, the U.S. helps safeguard the interests of its partners, bolstering their confidence and stability in a region plagued by conflicts and political instability.

The establishment of a Red Sea force can have a deterrent effect on terrorist organizations and non-state actors. By actively patrolling the area and demonstrating the capability to respond swiftly and decisively to attacks, the force can discourage potential aggressors from targeting ships in the region. This, in turn, contributes to regional stability and reduces the risk of further escalation.

Conclusion:

The launch of a Red Sea force by the United States is a crucial step in addressing the rising threats posed by Houthi terrorists in the region. By protecting commercial and military vessels passing through the Red Sea, this force helps ensure the safety of seafarers, maintain global trade flows, and uphold international maritime law. Moreover, this move signifies the U.S.'s commitment to supporting its allies and partners in the region, while also deterring terrorist organizations and non-state actors. The Red Sea force is a significant development that strengthens regional stability and contributes to global security in an increasingly interconnected world.

IMF Hails Indian Economy as "Star Performer"

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its annual report, lauding the Indian economy as a "star performer" among major economies. The IMF's recognition is a testament to India's remarkable progress and potential for sustained economic growth. This essay explores the reasons behind the IMF's positive assessment, focusing on India's large population and public infrastructure spending as key factors contributing to its stellar performance.

 

India's Large Population:

One of the fundamental strengths of the Indian economy is its vast population, which stands as the second-largest in the world. With a population exceeding 1.3 billion, India boasts a massive consumer base that presents enormous opportunities for domestic consumption and market expansion. This demographic advantage has attracted the attention of global investors, who recognize the immense potential for growth and profitability in the Indian market.

 

The burgeoning middle class within India's population has been a key driver of economic growth. As income levels rise and the middle class expands, consumption patterns evolve, leading to increased demand for goods and services across various sectors. This surge in consumption has stimulated domestic industries, generating employment and fostering entrepreneurship. The IMF's recognition of India as a "star performer" acknowledges the transformative impact of its large population on economic growth.

 

Public Infrastructure Spending:

Another crucial factor that has contributed to India's economic success is its increased focus on public infrastructure spending. The Indian government has undertaken significant initiatives to improve the country's infrastructure, targeting crucial sectors such as transportation, energy, telecommunications, and urban development.

 

Infrastructure development plays a pivotal role in catalyzing economic growth by enhancing productivity, connectivity, and efficiency. Investments in transportation infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and airports, facilitate the movement of goods and people, reducing logistical bottlenecks and improving trade. Upgrades in energy infrastructure ensure a reliable power supply, which is vital for industrial growth and attracting foreign investment. Furthermore, the development of modern cities and smart infrastructure unlocks opportunities for urbanization and sustainable development.

 

India's commitment to infrastructure development has been evident through initiatives like "Make in India," "Digital India," the Bharatmala project, and the Smart Cities Mission. These endeavors have not only created employment opportunities but have also strengthened the country's overall competitiveness and attractiveness as an investment destination. The IMF's acknowledgement of India's public infrastructure spending underscores the positive impact it has had on the country's economic performance.

 

Conclusion:

The IMF's designation of India as a "star performer" among major economies reflects the country's sustained economic growth and vast potential. India's large population serves as a valuable asset, providing a massive consumer base and driving domestic consumption. Moreover, the government's emphasis on public infrastructure spending has bolstered economic development, improving connectivity, productivity, and competitiveness.

 

To maintain this trajectory, it is imperative for India to continue priorite investments in human capital, innovation, and sustainable development. By focusing on education, skill development, research and development, and environmental stewardship, India can further enhance its economic resilience and ensure inclusive growth for all segments of society.

 

The IMF's recognition serves as a validation of India's economic progress and provides a strong foundation for future endeavors. It is essential for the Indian government to build upon these achievements, addressing challenges such as income inequality, job creation, and sustainable development. By adopting prudent economic policies, encouraging entrepreneurship, and fostering a favorable business environment, India can continue to shine as a "star performer" and become a global economic powerhouse.

 

In conclusion, India's large population and public infrastructure spending have played pivotal roles in propelling its economic growth trajectory. The IMF's acknowledgment of India as a "star performer" underscores the country's achievements and potential. With strategic investments and comprehensive reforms, India can harness its demographic dividend and continue to emerge as a leading player in the global economy.

Debt and Social Welfare: Navigating Fiscal Challenges in the New Madhya Pradesh Government

The recent inauguration of Mohan Yadav as Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh marks a significant shift from Shivraj Singh Chouhan's nearly two-decade-long leadership. While Chouhan still commands substantial popularity in the state, a realignment of interest groups and leaders is underway as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) undergoes a leadership transition in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.

Chouhan's extensive rally campaign, consisting of 165 rallies ahead of the polls, is credited for the BJP's massive majority. Paradoxically, this strength may compel the new Chief Minister, Mr. Yadav, to forge his own path. The BJP aims to consolidate its rainbow caste coalition in the state, with the notable exclusion of Muslims, through the leadership trio of Mr. Yadav (an OBC leader), Jagdish Devda (an SC leader), and Rajendra Shukla (a Brahmin leader). The government's early decision to increase the Tendu patta collection rate aligns with its tribal outreach, a promise outlined in its manifesto. The BJP anticipates that this consolidation will resonate in neighboring Hindi-belt states.

In Madhya Pradesh, where OBCs constitute over 50% of the population, SCs make up about 17%, and Brahmins hold influence in the Vindhya region, the BJP's social engineering takes a new leap with Mr. Yadav's appointment, especially considering the relatively reserved response of the Yadavs to the BJP's overtures toward OBCs.

The new government faces immediate challenges, particularly in fulfilling campaign promises such as enhancing the Ladli Behna Scheme, which currently provides ₹1,250 per month to 1.31 crore women from poor households. The BJP, under Mr. Chouhan, pledged to incrementally raise this amount to ₹3,000, but Mr. Yadav's stance on this commitment remains uncertain. Additionally, the party promised to increase the support prices of wheat and paddy crops and provide LPG cylinders at ₹450 to beneficiaries of the Ladli Behna Scheme and the central PM Ujjwala scheme.

However, these welfare commitments come at a time when the state's exchequer is burdened by heavy debt, estimated to be close to ₹4 lakh crore due to loans acquired by previous governments. The BJP's ambitious social engineering, coupled with expanding welfare schemes, is anticipated to impose additional strains on both the social fabric and economic resources of the state. Managing these challenges effectively will be crucial for the new government's success in balancing its fiscal responsibilities with its commitment to social welfare

HUMAN SECURITY-India's alarming track record in industrial safety

Accountability is a pressing concern in the aftermath of recent industrial incidents in Chennai and Maharashtra, shedding light on India's alarming track record in industrial safety. These events not only underscore the immediate need for a robust response system but also prompt critical inquiries into systemic deficiencies.

 In the case of the oil spill from CPCL, a petroleum refinery in north Chennai on December 4, the lack of timely action exacerbated the damage. The oil slick continued to spread unchecked for three days until media coverage compelled a response. Had both the company and the state government acted promptly, could the environmental impact have been confined to a smaller area?

 One glaring issue is the inadequacy of India's regulatory framework, designed to address situations where market-driven outcomes fall short. Industries, particularly in pollution control and safety, lack sufficient incentives to address issues internally. The regulatory mechanism, tasked with mitigating this gap, is itself underwhelming in India. For instance, in the industrial cluster around Pune, fewer than 20% of factories comply with fire safety regulations, resulting in over 20 recent fatalities in industrial accidents in Pune and Nagpur.

 

The fundamental economic principle of making the polluter pay globally is undermined in India, as exemplified by the CPCL incident in Chennai. While CPCL seeks a state government examination into potential contributions from other industrial units to the oil slick, fishermen affected by the spill resort to using buckets to extract oily water and demand compensation, even blocking roads in pursuit of redress for their lost livelihoods.

 India's legal system displays a peculiar imbalance, tending to overregulate functional market areas while remaining ineffective in addressing poor outcomes. Following accidents in Maharashtra, the response includes police filing FIRs against unidentified individuals and workers blocking highways to compel companies to explain their role in the incidents.

 Comparing the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the US in 2010, one of the worst industrial accidents, offers a stark contrast. Despite a sprawling oil slick covering 43,000 square miles, a record $20.8 billion settlement was reached between responsible party BP and the US government within five years. This underscores the possibility of a speedy resolution even in massive environmental disasters.

 

In conclusion, India's environment and safety laws, far from impeding economic progress, suffer from inefficacy that not only jeopardizes lives but also disrupts livelihoods. The question of accountability looms large in addressing these systemic failures.

Post-370, GOI should reach out & be tough in Kashmir

SC’s seal on ending special status is a psychological plus for integration. Politics must now connect with people. But the security apparatus must remain. Many inside & outside India don’t want peace

The Supreme Court’s constitution bench has upheld the 2019 GOI decision to revoke the special status granted to J&K under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. With this judgment now behind us, all focus should be on investigating what threats continue to impede the full integration of J&K with the rest of India, and proceeding to effectively neutralise them.