Navigating an Unpredictable Trump Administration
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States
highlights the complexities of bilateral relations under President Donald
Trump’s often unpredictable leadership. Modi’s Chanakyaniti aims to address
challenges in trade, defense, and energy while securing long-term benefits for
India. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda, driven by
ultra-nationalism, anti-migrant rhetoric, and trade wars, creates a challenging
backdrop. Despite these hurdles, India’s pivotal role in shaping global geopolitics
remains undeniable.
Bridging the Trade Deficit: A Persistent Challenge
Trade relations remain a contentious issue, with Trump’s
tariffs targeting several nations, including a looming threat to impose 100%
tariffs on BRICS countries. Bilateral trade reached $118 billion in 2023-24,
with India’s trade surplus climbing to $45.6 billion in 2024. Trump’s criticism
of India’s high tariffs necessitates concessions.
To address these tensions, India has proposed tariff
reductions on high-end American products like Harley Davidson motorbikes and
Tesla cars. The 2025 Union Budget hints at further duty cuts to align with
Trump’s demands. Additionally, India plans to increase imports of American
defense equipment, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reduce the
trade deficit. A potential mini trade agreement could lower import taxes on
American-made electronics, medical gear, and chemicals, while India pushes for
fewer restrictions on exports of pharmaceuticals, IT services, and textiles.
Safeguarding intellectual property rights and ensuring regulatory transparency
remain key US demands.
Geopolitical Realities: Balancing Relations with Russia,
China, and Iran
India’s strategic partnerships with Russia and its economic
ties with China complicate its engagement with the US. Despite the threat of
American sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions
Act (CAATSA), India continues to purchase Russian S-400 missile systems and
discounted crude oil. Concurrently, India’s rivalry with China positions it as
a critical partner for the US in countering Beijing’s dominance in the
Indo-Pacific region. India’s involvement in the Quad alliance further
strengthens this partnership.
India’s trade relations with Iran also present challenges.
Iran serves as a key energy supplier and a strategic partner for connectivity
initiatives like the Chabahar Port. Modi’s visit offers an opportunity to
negotiate waivers or relaxed sanctions, enabling India to pursue energy and
infrastructure projects in Iran. In return, the US may seek India’s stronger
alignment on countering Iranian influence in the Middle East.
Strengthening Defence and Energy Cooperation
Defense cooperation has been a cornerstone of US-India
relations. India’s acquisition of American military equipment, such as Seahawk
helicopters and Predator drones, underscores the deepening defense ties.
India’s plans to procure additional C-130 Hercules transport planes and P-8I
maritime patrol aircraft highlight its commitment to bolstering its defense
capabilities.
Energy cooperation is another critical area. India’s import
of American LNG and crude oil has diversified its energy portfolio. Modi’s
visit is expected to explore collaborations in nuclear energy and renewable
energy projects, including solar and hydrogen. A potential defense pact could
further solidify India’s position against China and address security concerns
stemming from Pakistan-based terrorism.
Revitalizing the Civil Nuclear Partnership
Despite the historic 2008 US-India civil nuclear deal,
progress has been limited due to concerns over India’s Civil Nuclear Liability
Law and restrictions on Indian nuclear entities. Recent moves, such as removing
the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) from the US Entities List, signal a
renewed commitment. Amending liability laws could pave the way for greater US
participation in India’s nuclear energy expansion.
Immigration and Deportation: Navigating Sensitive Issues
Immigration policies and deportation practices have become
significant irritants in US-India relations. The recent deportation of over 100
Indian citizens in a crude manner has caused outrage in India. Modi is expected
to advocate for more respectful deportation procedures and enhanced
opportunities for skilled Indian professionals and students through the H-1B
visa program, which has significantly benefited Indian IT specialists.
A Pragmatic Approach to Bilateral Relations
Modi’s visit underscores the strategic importance of the
US-India partnership in addressing shared geopolitical challenges. While
Trump’s firm stance on trade and immigration poses hurdles, both nations
recognize the mutual benefits of a strengthened relationship. By offering
carefully considered concessions in trade, defense, and energy, Modi seeks to
navigate Trump’s unpredictability and lay the groundwork for India’s long-term
strategic interests.
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