Detailed Analysis: China's Demographic Crisis and Policy Response

 

The assertion that China's One-Child Policy has been a disaster and that the government is attempting to reverse population decline is largely accurate. However, the specific measure mentioned—deciding not to tax condoms and anti-abortion pills—is incorrect based on recent reports; the policy change is actually the imposition of a Value-Added Tax (VAT) on these items, a move intended to discourage their use and boost birth rates.²

Here is a detailed analysis of China's demographic situation and the effectiveness of its recent policy pivots.

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1. The Demographic Reality: A Deepening Crisis

The context provided is supported by official data, which confirms a continuous population reduction and a severe demographic crisis.

• Population Decline: China's total population has been declining for the third consecutive year (as of reports from late 2025/early 2026, referencing 2024 data).³ The decline in 2024 was around 1.39 million people.
• The Root Cause: The One-Child Policy's Legacy: Implemented from 1979 to 2015, the policy created fundamental, long-term problems that current incentives cannot easily fix:
• Low Fertility Rate: Decades of messaging and policy established a cultural norm of small families.⁵ The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to one of the world's lowest (around 1.15 children per woman in 2024, far below the replacement level of 2.1).
• Aging Population: With fewer births and increased longevity, the proportion of elderly citizens (65 and over) is rapidly increasing, placing immense strain on the social security and healthcare systems and creating a shrinking workforce (the old-age dependency ratio is rising steeply).
• Gender Imbalance: A cultural preference for male children, exacerbated by the one-child rule, led to a skewed sex ratio at birth, resulting in a deficit of marriageable women today.

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2. Analysis of the Policy Response (Imposing Tax on Contraceptives)

The key point in the user's prompt is factually inverted. The most recent reports suggest that China is moving to impose a 13% VAT on contraceptive drugs and devices, including condoms, which had previously been exempt for over 30 years.

Policy Action (Reported)	User's Premise
Imposing a 13% VAT on contraceptives (condoms, pills) and devices.	Deciding NOT to tax (i.e., tax cut/exemption) on condoms and anti-abortion pills.

Will Imposing a Tax on Contraceptives Stop the Population Decline?

The overwhelming expert consensus is: No, it will not be effective and is likely counterproductive.

• Addressing the Wrong Barrier: The primary factors deterring young Chinese couples from having children are economic and social, not the availability or price of contraceptives.
• Cost of Child-Rearing: Raising a child to age 18 in China is estimated to be one of the most expensive in the world relative to income.¹⁰
• Career Pressure: Women face significant workplace discrimination and lack of adequate, affordable childcare.
• Shifting Priorities: Young adults, many of whom are only children themselves, prioritize their careers, personal financial stability, and self-fulfillment over starting large families in a competitive, slow-growth economy.
• Symbolic vs. Practical Impact: Demographers view the tax change as largely symbolic, meant to signal a major policy pivot—to discourage birth control and create a social environment that encourages childbirth.¹³ However, a small price increase on contraceptives is unlikely to override the massive financial and social burdens of having a child. As one online commenter reportedly stated: "If someone can't afford a condom, how could they afford raising a child?"
• Potential Negative Consequences (Public Health): Raising the price of contraceptives, particularly condoms, carries a significant public health risk.Experts worry it could lead to:
• Increased Unintended Pregnancies: Potentially increasing the very abortions the government is trying to discourage.
• Spread of STIs/HIV: As the rate of HIV infections has been a growing concern in China, increasing the cost of barrier protection is seen as a poorly considered approach from a public health perspective.¹⁶

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3. Conclusion

China's population decline is an acute crisis, the culmination of decades of a restrictive birth policy coupled with the natural demographic shift that accompanies rising incomes and urbanization.

The policy to impose tax on contraceptives is highly unlikely to stop the decline. It addresses the symptoms (birth control usage) rather than the root causes (cost, childcare, career equity).

The Chinese government's more substantive, though still insufficient, measures to encourage births include:

• Cash incentives for newborns and multiple children.
• Expansion of parental leave.
• Tax exemptions for child-care services (which, ironically, are being paired with the new tax on contraceptives).

The demographic challenge is deeply structural, requiring massive, long-term, and expensive investment in social welfare, gender equality in the workplace, and affordable public services like childcare and education, far beyond the impact of a tax on contraceptives.