Wednesday, 30 November 2016
WATCH ME LIVE ON MARATHI TV NEWS CHANNEL ZEE 24 TAS-HOW TO DEAL WITH PAKISTAN TERROR -9PM-10 PM 01 DEC 2016-REPEAT TELECAST 0930 AM-1030 AM 02 DEC 2016
CHINESE PLAAF operating out of TAR poses no worthwhile threat to our land forces provided the IAF is given free hand to operate. Chinese land forces can/will be decimated in the TBA.
Tuesday, 29 November 2016
WATCH ME LIVE ON TV 9 MARATHI 5PM-6PM-लष्करी अधिकाऱ्यांच्या पत्नींच्या धाडसामुळे दहशतवाद्यांचा कट फसला Nagrota army camp attack : अधिकाऱ्यांच्या कुटुंबियांना ओलीस ठेवून भारतीय सैन्याला वेठीस धरण्याचा दहशतवाद्यांचा डाव होता. मात्र, दोन पत्नींनी प्रसंगावधान राखून हा डाव उधळला.
Monday, 28 November 2016
Terror outfit’s logistics and striking capabilities have been hit by demonetisation, say police Almost three weeks after the demonetisation, militants in Kashmir are desperate for new banknotes to pay up their monthly bills, especially those of mobile phones and SIM cards, the police say. The Lashkar-e-Taiba’s attempt to loot the Malpora branch of J&K Bank in Budgam district of Rs. 14 lakh on November 21 is a case in point. “The fact that the conspiracy was hatched by LeT militant Arif Dar, a Pulwama resident, along with foreign terrorists Abu Ali and Abu Ismail, points to the cash crunch hitting the outfit,” Pulwama Senior Superintendent of Police Muhammad Rayeed Bhat told The Hindu. Of the Rs. 14 lakh looted, five LeT sympathisers — who were all arrested — succeeded in getting the new notes for Rs. 3 lakh. “An investigation is underway to find out how Rs. 11 lakh in the old banknotes would have been exchanged by the sympathisers,” a senior police officer said in Budgam. Major expenses According to a police assessment, the militants active in the Valley spend a lot every month on cellphones and SIM cards. “A militant commander or the head of a module keeps changing cellphones and SIM cards. At least two SIM cards are bought a month. Similarly, a cellphone is procured every month and discarded,” said a police officer involved in counter-insurgency operations in Srinagar. On an average, Rs.10,000 is spent every month on gadgets and internet. For 100 active militants, a group needs Rs. 10 lakh a month, the assessment reckons. The other major expenses for militants are couriers, fuel charges and overground workers who ferry weapons from the border areas to the mainland and help in their distribution. According to police records, 150-200 are active in the Kashmir Valley this winter against 100 in the same period last year. The police reckon that the demonetisation may have affected the LeT’s logistics and striking capabilities. Meanwhile, the security agencies have failed to identify any account-holder indulging in money-laundering for militants. “Money-launderers are acting smart. It seems the militant outfits are exploiting the large web of overground workers to buy small properties. They are also laundering money in smaller amounts through a chain of sympathisers and their relatives,” said the counter-insurgency officer
Demonetisation: A Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Game Changer for India By Asian Warrior - November 24, 20160528
Sunday, 27 November 2016
Arihant Pawariya - November 25, 2016, 2:52 pm Shares 14.6 K 1) Y.V. Reddy who served as the governor of the Reserve Bank Of India from 2003-2008, when economy saw a massive boom, has endorsed the decision taken by the Modi government. Mr. Reddy termed the timing of the move “perfect” as it comes right before the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is all set to be implemented. “ It is a historic moment. There is bound to be paradigm shift in the economic and political system. With the GST on the anvil, the system is ripe for a change. However, to take it forward, contract enforcement and judicial processes will have to play active role. It is impossible to have a big change without some inconvenience and some temporary disruptions. The Economic Times 2) C. Rangarajan served as governor of the RBI in the post-liberalisation era from 1992-1997. He called the demonetisation move a “standard prescription” that was tried in the past, however, he added, that this time the government was targeting those who accumulated money, who issue fake currency and those financing terrorism. Mr. Rangarajan has also called for measures so that black money doesn’t get generated in future. “ The government’s move to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes is a standard prescription in extinguishing unaccounted money. This has been tried in the past. But the government (this time) had three targets: those who accumulated money, who issue fake currency and those financing terrorism, the last two being of different nature. But as far as black money is concerned, this measure is a step towards reducing black money or unaccounted money from the system. It will affect the retail trade as most of the transactions are done using cash. There are some other sectors in the economy like real estate, jewellery where cash has become a major player for transaction. Those will undergo a fundamental change. 3) D. Subbarao, who was at the helm at the RBI post 2008 financial crisis, has said that positives of the current demonetization drive outweighed the negatives. However, he cautioned the RBI against treating the money not returned during the current drive as profit and handing over it to the government. “ If you ride out the short-term pain, the positives will be substantial, be in terms of attracting investments, and also getting people to move from physical cash to electronic transactions. The money being deposited in the banks, as against having it in the pocket, or under the pillow, was good for the economy.Banks will multiply the money when it is with them. It will encourage banks to get lending rates down, even if the RBI does not ease any further…. demonetization will also help improve financial inclusion... banks will be able to give out more credit and all this will have a multiplier effect. Livemint 4) Dr. Raghuram Rajan, the previous RBI governor, hasn’t commented on the current drive. But on an earlier occasion, he had raised doubts about the effectiveness of demonetisation as a way of cleaning the financial system of black money. Rajan had suggested that it is better to focus on making improvements in tracking tax data and ramping up tax administration. “ In the past demonetisation has been thought off as a way of getting black money out of circulation. Because people then have to come and say “how do I have this ten crores in cash sitting in my safe” and they have to explain where they got the money from. It is often cited as a solution. Unfortunately, my sense is the clever find ways around it.They find ways to divide up their hoard in to many smaller pieces. You do find that people who haven’t thought of a way to convert black to white, throw it into the Hundi in some temples. I think there are ways around demonetization. It is not that easy to flush out the black money. The Huffington Post 5) Bimal Jalan, served from 1997-2003, overseeing the transition of the RBI from 20th century to 21st. He has termed the demonetisation drive as positive and good “in terms of what the intention is.” When asked whether the scheme will achieve its purpose, Mr Jalan said that ‘it would take three-four months to see how it works.’ “ It is very positive and good for us in terms of what the intention is. And over a period of time as I think he also mentioned that it will be easy to see what else needs to be done to make it available, make it accessible to the people who do not have bank account and let us hope it works out. The most crucial issue at the moment is how to increase the spread in the banking system that is the most crucial issue. The second related most important issue is that in rural areas or in semi-urban area where there are no banks accounts for the poor or for the agriculturists and, then what is to be done with their notes if they do not have a bank account
Saturday, 26 November 2016
First Published :26-November-2016 : 11:59:58 Last Updated at: 26-November-2016 : 12:48:47 ऑनलाइन लोकमत मुंबई, दि. 26 - नोटाबंदीचा फटका फक्त सर्वसामान्यांना बसला नसून अंडरवर्ल्डचं कंबरडं मोडण्यात सरकारला यश आलं आहे. सुत्रांनी दिलेल्या माहितीनुसार नोटाबंदीमुळे गेल्या काही दिवसांपासून अंडरवर्ल्डच्या हालचाली बंद झाल्या आहेत. मटका, शस्त्रांची तस्करी, सुपारी घेऊन हत्या करणे, चोरी आणि अंमली पदार्थांच्या बाजाराला नोटाबंदीचा फटका बसला असून हवालाच्या मार्फत येणारा पैसाच बंद झाला असल्याचं वृत्त टाईम्स ऑफ इंडियाने दिलं आहे. हवाला किंवा अवैध मार्गाने येणा-या पैशांचा व्यवहार हा काळ्या पैशाचा मुख्य स्त्रोत आहे. अशामध्ये चलनाचा तुटवडा झाल्याने तसंच जुन्या नोटा असल्याने अंडरवर्ल्डची नाकेबंदी झाली आहे. 'गेल्या 20 दिवसांमध्ये खंडणीसाठी एकाही उद्योजकाला अंडरवर्ल्डकडून फोन किंवा धमकी आलेली नाही यावरुन आपण त्यांना किती फटका बसला आहे याचा अंदाज लावू शकतो', असं एका पोलीस अधिका-याने सांगितल आहे. 'मुंबईत शस्त्रांची तस्करी नेहमी होत असते, मात्र गेल्या दोन आठवड्यांमध्ये एकदाही देशी बनावटीच्या शस्त्रांची तस्करी झालेली नाही', अशी माहिती पोलीस अधिका-याने दिली आहे. (गोल्डफिंगर उद्योजकांना नोटाबंदीचा कोट्यवधींचा फटका) (५00 रुपयांत विवाह समारंभ; नोटाबंदीचा परिणाम) 'अंमली पदार्थांच्या तस्करीला नोटाबंदीची छळ लागली आहे. अंमली पदार्थांची तस्करी करणा-यांना ग्राहकच मिळत नसल्याचं कळत आहे. बाजार पुन्हा एकदा स्थिर होण्याची वाट ते पाहत आहेत', असं नार्कोटिक्स नियंत्रण विभागाचे विभागीय संचालक संजय झा यांनी सांगितलं आहे. (नोटाबंदीचा रिअल इस्टेट, वाहन उद्योगावर परिणाम) गुंडांनीदेखील नोटाबंदीचा धसका घेतला असून अटक झाली तर सोडवण्यासाठी वकिल मिळत नाही आहेत. कारण वकिलदेखील फी देताना नव्या नोटा देण्यास सांगत आहेत. 'न्यायालयदेखील जुन्या नोटा स्विकारत नाही आहे, त्यामुळे जामीन मिळण्यात अडचण होत असल्याची', माहिती छोटा राजन गॅगमधील सदस्याच्या वकिलाने दिली आहे. 'हवालामध्ये सहभागी असलेले तात्पुरच्या स्वरुपासाठी मनी चेंजिंग करत आहेत. त्यांनी सोनार, बँकर्स आणि व्यवसायिकांशी हातमिळवणी केली असून जुन्या नोटांच्या बदली नव्या नोटा बदलून घेत आहेत. यासाठी 25 ते 40 टक्के कमिशन देत आहेत', अशी माहिती क्राईम ब्रांच अधिका-याने दिली आहे
Rajeev Srinivasan - November 22, 2016, 7:15 pm If it is possible to run the economy electronically it then becomes easier to downsize government, remove some of those positions where bureaucrats wield rent-seeking, discretionary powers. The aftershocks of the demonetisation of 8 November are obviously still reverberating, as there is still a lot of pain for the average citizen. Even if you ignore motivated breast-beating from the usual suspects, which can be discounted, it is likely that many at the bottom of the pyramid are suffering from the liquidity crunch. Much activity has been disrupted. But it is still likely that a majority supports the (laudable) aims behind the move, even though the implementation could have been a lot smoother, especially if there had been a focus on Rs 100 notes, rather than the relatively hard-to-handle Rs 2,000 notes. I too have personally dealt with some pain, standing in moderately long lines, and going futilely from shop to shop trying to get change for a Rs 2,000 note. But something that I heard in one of those bank lines startled me. I was chatting with an old neighbour of mine while in line, and I remarked on the hassle, and he said, “But it’s better than war”. He is a highly educated retiree, and has been through every war from 1948 to 1965 to 1971 to Kargil, and so I take him at face value. This is, in a sense, the Moral Equivalent of War. I’m reluctant to say that because when Jimmy Carter used the phrase, he was pilloried for his timidity, and the fact that the acron ym is MEOW. But we are at war, and the barbarians are inside, outside, and at the gates. War is just about the only thing that brings fractious and centrifugal Indians together: and then we deliver. I too have seen the fortitude of Indians during the 1971 war and the privations it brought us. We suffer; but we survive; and we are ready to sacrifice for the larger interests of the nation. I was reminded of the story I read about an old soldier, all of whose three sons have been killed in battle, the youngest just last month, and how even in his grief, he didn’t waver in his love for his country. That is how we are, those outside the charmed circles of the blasé Lutyens crowd who have no time for such old-fashioned ideas such as patriotism, but who owe their wealth and their livelihoods to the simple faith of such people. The Lutyens types have cynically fed us a mythology that they, the benevolent, would bring us the Millennium, the City on the Hill, and we have been misled by their siren song. Instead, all they have given us is misgovernance, corruption, and wholesale national failure. But we have tolerated them all these years. This tolerance of the Indian public is a wonder, but it is beginning to come to an end, as a young and aggressive population is beginning to ask why it is that every country is bypassing us. They are finding answers on social media: the Indian #deepstate of the JNU-media-Dynasty-crony capitalism variety is finally being laid bare in all its nakedness: these are thieves, hypocrites, amoral sociopaths. And then comes Prime Minister Narendra Modi with an appeal to the public, going over the heads of the gatekeeper media: he acknowledges that there will be pain. But he asks them to suffer the pain for just 50 days, and by and large, the public is responding. In a way this is like that old imperialist Churchill promising his countrymen nothing but “blood, toil, tears and sweat”. And the Brits responded. Similarly, I get the feeling that Indians are responding to Modi. We’re willing, within limits, to “[take] one for the Gipper”, to use a Reaganesque phrase. This has startled the Western media. Except for the fringe types, even hardened anti-India campaigners such as The Economist and The Financial Times have been circumspect in their coverage. One of them wondered that “there has been no violence”. Yes, in the West there probably would have been blood on the streets, as we saw in London a couple of years ago, and in the US, during the Rodney King protests of a while ago. The journos couldn’t believe that such a radical change had gone without bloodshed. But they mustn’t judge us by their own standards: there is Indian Exceptionalism. We are not like them. The other reason the Westerners were hedging (I read Kenneth Rogoff’s noncommittal comment too) is that this exercise is so mammoth, so unprecedented, so audacious that nobody knows what the outcome will be. It is like a Manhattan Project to make the atomic bomb, or Kennedy’s celebrated ‘Man-on-the-moon’ project. They would not dare try something like this in their economies today. But we can, because complexity is our métier. We can organise an immense exercise like the Kumbha Mela, although we cannot stand in line at a railway counter. And this is not a one-off, whimsical act as some of the polemicists in India claim. There is a context: first, the JAM trinity for financial inclusion: Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar, and mobile. Second, the voluntary disclosure scheme for unreported income that ended in September and saw the declaration of some Rs 65,000 crore. Third, demonetisation. And fourth, yet to come, Goods and Service Tax (GST). If you put all these together, it is a revolution, and a disruption, a point of inflexion, the beginning of something big. You have the possibility of bringing out into the open the 25 per cent of the economy that has been under-reported, untaxed and secreted under mattresses. This itself will improve efficiency and circulation as the funds can be recycled by banks (though hopefully not in the way they funded crony capitalists in the good old UPA1 and UPA2 days). Not to mention the increased tax revenues. But more than that, it is a tsunami that should enable India to leapfrog a generation of fintech. With the UPI (Universal Payment Interface) that has been rolled out, it has become possible to move anybody with a smartphone to make e-payments. UPI allows anyone to transfer funds or make merchant payments securely, with 2-factor authentication, without having to reveal their bank routing code or account number, but by simply using an alias such as suresh27@hdfcbank: easy to remember. This is not an e-wallet: transactions are happening in your real bank account, but it’s much easier than registering a payee and so on. If I understand correctly, this is similar to M-Pesa (except that is a mobile wallet) in that it allows for very small transactions (say, Rs 10) with no transaction fee at all, and it can happen 24x7 using the IMPS (Immediate Payment Sevice) interface that already exists. If this can be done seamlessly and with guaranteed security, then India would have leapfrogged from cash directly to e-payments in one fell swoop, avoiding the intermediate stages of cheques and credit cards. Just as we leapt from landline to cellular without laying all the expensive copper wire, this would mean we have suddenly become the largest electronic money economy in the world, as our scale is virtually unmatched. This will have significant benefits in lowered transaction costs as well as an audit trail: it makes large-scale corruption harder to pull off, because you never know what the computer is storing away and when the Enforcement Directorate will come down on you like a tonne of bricks. Now add the next shoe to drop, so to speak, as GST kicks in, and hopefully makes our physical infrastructure also less cumbersome. Suddenly, the mile-long queues at state checkpoints disappear, and it no longer takes a week to ship goods from your factory to the nearest port. Efficiency again. The sum of all this can transform the Indian economy. If it is possible to run the economy electronically (assuming there’s sufficient cybersecurity so that our friendly neighbourhood snoops aren’t sucking all our data out) it then becomes easier to downsize government, remove some of those positions where bureaucrats wield rent-seeking, discretionary powers. Black money generation will diminish. Corruption and black money will never go away entirely. They will be with us always, like death and taxes. But their effect on the real economy can be reduced. And that would also lead to a reduction in the power of politicians to act in arbitrary ways: whatever they do would lead to an audit trail in the money flow. An analogy is the railway reservation system: the moment it was automated, the entire class of intermediary touts disappeared, because frankly, people are scared of what computers may know about them. It deters them. It is a huge disruption, in the normal sense of the term. In terms of Clayton Christensen’s disruptive innovation, “incumbent”, i.e. Lutyens-type babus and netas are being replaced by the “insurgent”. Prime Minister’s ideas that are turning the incumbents’ world upside down. The consumers of their efforts, the public, that had remained quiescent despite the widespread loot of their money by the incumbents, will simply switch to the better offering from the insurgent. Christensen’s idea of the “failure of leading firms” predicts precisely this: the complacent incumbent will be blindsided by the insurgent, who has no customer base to lose, but has a superior product. This happened in the 2014 election, and we all know what happened: the customer base switched to the insurgent. Thus, I believe the Prime Minister can pull this gargantuan effort off, with our support. He has no choice, really: this is one of those things where you can’t make a graceful U-turn; the train is moving, and you can’t stop it or get off it. And given his character, once he makes up his mind, it is unlikely he’ll change it. Thus, like it or not, demonetisation is a reality, and although we will not know the full results for a while, I think it is a tremendous step forward, coupled with the other steps I mentioned. There will be pain: GDP may shrink by as much as a point, says HSBC, but the upside is high. At a time when China is slowing, and many are nervous about Donald Trump’s intentions, this move by India could not be more brave or intrepid. It is a risk-the-mandate bet, and I believe it will work, and that it is the beginning of a new, cleaner, more assertive India