Jaidev Ranade’s book, "China: The Hardening State," offers a sharp and timely analysis

 

Jaidev Ranade’s book, "China: The Hardening State," offers a sharp and timely analysis of how China under President Xi Jinping has intensified state controls and assertiveness both at home and abroad, painting a portrait of a nation intentionally steering toward authoritarian consolidation to realize its superpower ambitions.

Central Thesis
Ranade examines how Xi Jinping’s leadership has marked a decisive shift in policy and governance, with increased surveillance, purges of political and military elites, and a sweeping crackdown on dissent. He argues that China’s internal security budget has grown larger than its defense spending, reflecting the regime’s preoccupation with internal threats and maintaining domestic unity.

Key Arguments
Political Consolidation: Xi’s purges within the Communist Party and armed forces are presented as strategic moves to eliminate real and potential rivals, cementing his position as the uncontested leader.

Control Mechanisms: The book documents extensive use of surveillance—including over senior officials—and the growing centrality of the Party in all aspects of governance and society.

Superpower Ambitions: Ranade highlights China’s target of becoming the world’s leading power by 2049, viewing current actions as steps towards displacing the US-led global order.

Popular Discontent: He explores how economic slowdown, loss of jobs, and rising living costs are fostering dissatisfaction, which the regime is keenly aware of, prompting further hardening of the state apparatus.

Structure and Style
The book is organized around key developments since Xi’s rise to power, combining scholarly analysis with detailed accounts of power plays, foreign policy shifts, and the Party’s control over media and public life. Ranade effectively uses vignettes and character sketches to illuminate the personalities shaping China’s strategic trajectory.

Review and Critique
Ranade’s work stands out for its deep factual base, insights into China’s internal machinations, and timely relevance for observers of global politics. Its clear, accessible prose makes complex themes understandable without sacrificing analytical depth. The book is essential reading for those interested in contemporary China, international relations, and the challenge posed to democratic values by centralized authoritarianism.

The key chapters of Jaidev Ranade’s "China: The Hardening State" chronicle Xi Jinping’s rise, political consolidation, security purges, dissent management, military developments, internal discontent, and China’s strategic posture, with each chapter supported by detailed evidence and policy analysis.

Key Chapters Overview

Chapter Topic	Evidence Type & Focus
Xi Jinping’s Rise and Power Consolidation	Purges, appointments of loyalists, Party restructuring.
Security Apparatus and Factional Control	Surveillance of officials, internal security budget increases, elimination of rivals.
Managing Opposition and Political Dissent	Rectification campaigns, suppression of rival factions, crackdown on dissent.
Military Upgrades and Strategic Development	PLA reforms, preparedness exercises, high prioritization in Tibet/Western Theatre Command.
Ethnic Minorities and Tibet Policy	Assimilation campaigns, language replacement, cultural erasure, Panchen Lama promotion.
Popular Discontent and Domestic Challenges	Economic slowdown, unemployment, rising costs, elite-level discord.
China’s Foreign Policy and Superpower Aspirations	Assertive diplomacy, security posture toward India and the West, comprehensive strategic ambitions for 2049.

Evidence and Analysis Summary

• Political Purges: Ranade extensively documents the systematic purge of thousands of Communist Party cadres and military officers under accusations of corruption, showing how these moves eliminate opposition and consolidate Xi’s grip on power.
• Surveillance and Security: Evidence includes the enhanced surveillance of Politburo members and broader increases in internal security spending, which now exceeds even China’s defense budget. These measures aim to prevent organized challenges to Xi’s leadership.
• Military Modernization: Chapters detail PLA restructuring, new units, strategic deployments (especially regarding India and the Tibet region), and preparations for "colour revolutions" or external threats.
• Tibet and Minorities: Ranade presents analysis of China’s campaigns to assimilate ethnic minorities, suppress Tibetan identity, and lessen the Dalai Lama’s influence, with examples of language policies and government campaigns.
• Economic and Social Tensions: The book uses demographic and employment data to highlight popular discontent, arguing these internal pressures are a major factor in the hardening state response.
• Foreign Policy Aggression: Evidence comes from China’s border policies, military drills, and diplomatic moves against India and the United States, all framed as steps within a longer-term plan to emerge as the world’s number one power by 2049.

Each chapter blends policy events, leadership strategies, and social developments, giving a comprehensive view of China’s evolving authoritarianism and its implications.

 It is a chapter-by-chapter evidence mapping for Jaidev Ranade's "China: The Hardening State" based on its table of contents and thematic focus.

Leadership Consolidation and Political Control

• Chapters 1–13: These chapters map Xi Jinping’s third term preparations, appointment of loyalists, removal of possible rivals, and major Party rectification campaigns.
• Evidence: Internal Party purges, key political appointments, "Theme Education" campaigns, and institutional reforms.

Security Apparatus and Factional Purges

• Chapters 14–17: Examine missing senior officials, purges in security apparatus, and expanded internal surveillance mechanisms.
• Evidence: Allegations of discord, removal of foreign ministry heads, rise of new security satraps, and indicators of resistance.

Managing Discontent and Opposition

• Chapters 18–21: Petitions and unrest at the People’s Congress, signs of CCP disquiet, and worries about "colour revolutions" before major Party events.
• Evidence: Security measures for meetings, CCP history revisions, increased rhetoric on internal threats.

Economic Strains and Popular Unrest

• Chapters 22–31: Analysis of government reports, Xi’s centenary speech, economic slowdown, and social instability.
• Evidence: Work reports, records from finance conferences, spikes in unemployment, cost-of-living data.

Military Reform and PLA Developments

• Chapters 32–40: Fears and policies regarding revolution within the PLA, military exercises, and preparations for possible threats.
• Evidence: Leaked war exercise videos, restructuring of commands, creation of specialized info units.

Tibet and Ethnic Minorities

• Chapters 41–47: Assimilation drives in Tibet, replacement of ethnic languages, attempts to erode the Dalai Lama’s influence, and the region’s strategic role.
• Evidence: New laws, reports from official visits, campaigns to promote Panchen Lama, increased Han presence.

Border Security and India Relations

• Chapters 48–55: Status and implications of military upgrades near India, border security moves, and diplomatic strategies.
• Evidence: PLA restructuring, heightened military activities in Western Theatre Command, cross-border incidents.

Foreign Policy, US/West, and Global Positioning

• Chapters 56–71: China’s posture toward the US, Taiwan, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan; reactions to sanctions, diplomacy, and strategic nexuses.
• Evidence: Diplomatic statements, expert assessments, recent summits, and analyses of alliances.

Summary Table

Chapters	Focus/Theme	Evidence Highlight
1–13	Power Consolidation	Party purges; loyalist rise
14–17	Security Purges	Surveillance; removals
18–21	Managing Dissent	CCP unrest; history revision
22–31	Economy/Discontent	Reports; unemployment
32–40	PLA Reform	Exercises; reorganization
41–47	Tibet/Minorities	Assimilation; language shift
48–55	India/Border Security	Military upgrades
56–71	Foreign Policy	Diplomatic moves

Each chapter provides focused, evidence-backed analysis with references to policy documents, official reports, social indicators, and primary accounts to illustrate China’s hardening trajectory under Xi Jinping.

INDIAN STRATEGIC RESPONSE
India’s strategic response options to security challenges, especially vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, encompass a mix of military strengthening, diplomatic alignments, regional partnerships, and doctrinal clarity. Key approaches include:

Strategic Policy Choices
India faces choices such as nonalignment, hedging, building indigenous military capabilities, forming regional partnerships, aligning with China, or closer alignment with the United States. Among these, closer alignment with the U.S. combined with strengthening regional ties and military modernization is considered the most effective counterbalance to China’s rising power and assertiveness.

Nonalignment or hedging are less favored since they do not directly address the asymmetrical threat posed by China’s economic and military growth.

Military and Deterrence Enhancements
India is focused on expanding and modernizing its armed forces, including forming new mountain strike corps for the Chinese border, enhancing missile capabilities including nuclear and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and upgrading command and control systems for resilience against first strikes.

India’s doctrine emphasizes credible deterrence both conventionally and with nuclear capabilities, aiming to raise the costs of aggression against India while ensuring survivability of its strategic forces.

Limited war doctrines and calibrated punitive military options are being considered to respond effectively to terrorism and low-intensity conflicts primarily emanating from Pakistan while avoiding large scale war.

Diplomatic and Regional Initiatives
Strengthening partnerships with the U.S. and other Indo-Pacific countries is a priority to gain strategic leverage and build a counterbalancing coalition against China and Pakistan’s alliances.

Engaging in multilateral diplomacy and economic integration to enhance India’s global influence and reduce vulnerabilities to external pressures is a key element.

India has demonstrated strategic clarity and a willingness to combine military and non-military means, as evidenced by operations like Operation SINDOOR, to neutralize cross-border threats with a calibrated yet firm approach.

Nuclear and Strategic Considerations
India is focusing on expanding the size and sophistication of its nuclear arsenal with emphasis on survivability and credible second-strike capability, including missile systems that cover the Indo-Pacific region.

Clear communication of Indian redlines and credible deterrence posture is emphasized to prevent miscalculations and demonstrate political resolve against aggression.

Conclusion
In sum, India’s strategic response is a multifaceted approach balancing military modernization, diplomatic outreach, regional partnerships, and calibrated punitive options, aimed at securing national interests and maintaining regional stability in an environment marked by rising Chinese assertiveness and ongoing threats from Pakistan  "China: The Hardening State" is a compelling, well-supported account that answers in the affirmative: China is indeed hardening, and this process is deliberate and crucial to its vision of a new world order under Xi Jinping .