Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks , Key Findings

 Personnel costs in India’s defense budget are crowding out investments in military modernization. These budgetary trends will negatively impact India’s defense posture, particularly with respect to air power.  Domestic politics, bureaucratic inertia, and fiscal constraints make it unlikely that recent trends in Indian defense spending – namely, declining capital budgets relative to personnel costs – can be reversed in the near to medium term.  Pakistan’s defense budget is higher than official estimates. Although Pakistan has increased the transparency of its defense spending in recent years, the country’s budget documents raise more questions than answers.  In the long run, Rawalpindi will either have to make tough choices about defense priorities, strategy, and national objectives, or dedicate a larger portion of government spending to defense.  Pakistan’s ability to purchase big-ticket weapons systems from the United States and Western countries will be increasingly difficult unless it can do so at concessionary rates, which seems unlikely.  India spends at least four percent of its defense budget on nuclear weapons, while nuclear weapons account for at least 10 percent of Pakistan’s military spending. In 2016, Pakistan will spend at least $747 million on nuclear weapons, and India will spend $1.9 billion.  In the long run, India’s relative resource advantage will feed Pakistan’s worst-case perceptions of the conventional military balance. Absent a reevaluation of the utility of nuclear weapons, Pakistan will continue to offset India’s conventional forces with investments in nuclear weapons, especially those that are difficult to keep safe and secure.  States that seek to substitute nuclear for conventional capabilities do so at great peril to themselves as well as others. Pakistan’s military will increasingly have to make this choice, unless it receives an even bigger slice of the budget pie. If Pakistan responds to defense budget shortfalls by increasing reliance on nuclear weapons, it will heighten its national security dilemmas. Abstract The national security of India and Pakistan will hinge on the manner in which each state converts economic power into military strength. This report examines current trends in defense spending in India and Pakistan. First, I examine defense spending in India and argue that India’s military modernization efforts will be delayed by trends in the defense budget and its management. Next, I explore defense spending in Pakistan and conclude that the country’s actual defense budget is likely higher than the estimates provided in official defense budget documents. I conclude by estimating how much of the defense budget in each country is dedicated to nuclear weaponrelated capabilities, and argue that Pakistan’s reliance on nuclear weapons will increase as India’s relative advantage in defense spending and conventional military power grows in the years ahead. Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The strategic competition between India and Pakistan is evolving, with India outpacing Pakistan in conventional capabilities while Pakistan seeks to compete with nuclear capabilities. India’s economy is eight times larger than Pakistan’s, and may be 15 times larger in 2030. Absent reconciliation between India and Pakistan, how each state converts economic power into military strength will reflect longstanding grievances. India’s advantages are diminished by an ad hoc approach to defense budget management and other constraints, but long term trends point to Indian ascendance. Pakistan cannot match India conventionally in the long term, and any attempt to do so will exhaust its economy. Responding to adverse defense spending trends with increased reliance on nuclear weapons, especially short-range weapons, may be a cost effective approach, but it is likely to diminish Pakistan’s national security. India’s Defense Budget • India’s defense budget is growing at an impressive clip, but rising personnel costs are crowding out resources for modernization. Since the mid-2000s, an increasing share of India’s defense budget has been dedicated to pensions and personnel costs, while capital outlays – investments in weapons systems – are decreasing relative to the rest of the budget. • Declining capital budgets will delay military modernization efforts and reduce projections of India’s advantages over Pakistan, particularly with respect to air power. India’s plan to purchase French Rafale aircraft, for example, has been delayed and downsized in part due to declining capital budgets for aircraft. • Recent trends in Indian defense spending – declining capital investments relative to personnel costs – are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. New Delhi has committed to increases in military salaries and pensions which leave less room for modernization. Meaningful budgetary reform in the defense ministry is unlikely to materialize in the near-future, because implementing reform within India’s defense bureaucracy has been so challenging. Pakistan’s Defense Budget • Pakistan spends more on defense than its official estimates suggest. Pakistan leaves out important components of the defense budget, and there is reason to believe that offbudget financing supplements official spending. • The inter-service distribution of the defense budget reflects the preeminence of the Pakistan Army. The Army receives nearly half of the country’s defense budget, and is by far the largest service in terms of troop strength. The Army has overspent its allocated defense budget every year since 2009. The practice of exceeding its allocated budget is in stark contrast to India, where services routinely underspend their budgets. • Rawalpindi has already begun to receive less military assistance from the United States, as US troop strength in Afghanistan has declined. US military aid accounted for 21 percent of Pakistan’s defense budget between 2002-2015, and now accounts for less than 11 percent. Pakistan will rely on China for major conventional platforms going forward, but Beijing’s support and subsidies are likely to be less than what Washington provided. Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks 8 Defense Spending and Nuclear Weapons in South Asia • India likely spends at least four percent of its defense budget on nuclear weapons, while nuclear weapons account for at least 10 percent of Pakistan’s military spending. In 2016, Pakistan will spend at least $747 million on nuclear weapons, and India will spend $1.9 billion. Neither India nor Pakistan includes information about its nuclear weapons budget in official defense budget documents. In the last two years, however, parliamentary oversight has yielded more information than before. • Absent a reevaluation of the utility of nuclear weapons and a reconciliation process with India, the role of nuclear weapons in Pakistan’s defense posture is likely to increase, heightening national security dilemmas. India’s relative resource advantage will continue to feed Pakistan’s worst-case perceptions of the conventional military balance. It is unlikely that Rawalpindi will be persuaded by arguments that India’s conventional warfighting advantages are not as great as they appear on paper. Rawalpindi’s Strategic Dilemma • In the face of India’s growing conventional advantages Rawalpindi may be tempted to increase reliance on nuclear weapons, which would increase Pakistan’s security dilemmas. Other states have tried this, only to reverse course. • The question for the Pakistan Army is not whether it will compete with India, but how. Nuclear weapons are useful for deterrence, but not warfighting. There is no substitute for military capabilities necessary for conventional defense and internal security. Military Budgets in India and Pakistan: Trajectories, Priorities, and Risks 9 MILITARY BUDGETS IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN: TRAJECTORIES