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Wednesday, 19 April 2017
Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s suggestion that if Pakistan executes former Indian Navy commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, then India should recognize Balochistan as an independent state … is founded on solid historical precedent and constitutes excellent strategy and realpolitik.
Why Dr. Swamy's strategy is flawless and why it will bring Pakistan to its knees … needs to be explained.
1. Background … How the United States Arm Twisted Pakistan by invoking Balochistan
On the 2nd of May ‘ 2011, a US Seal team consisting of highly trained commandos flew into Abottabad , a town that houses the Pakistani military academy and they liquidated Osama Bin Laden.
US – Pakistani relations plummeted after that.
2. Salala incident … 26th Nov ‘ 2011
Then on the 26th of November ‘ 2011, US – Nato forces operating near the Afghanistan – Pakistan border attacked 2 Pakistani posts at Salala, supported by helicopters and fighter aircraft.
28 Pakistani soldiers were killed in this atttack.
After this attack by NATO forces at Salala the Pakistani Government closed all supply routes that were supporting over 100,000 NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The map below shows NATO’s vital supply routes through Balochistan
This created a Huge logistics problem for the Americans and their NATO allies and they requested and begged Pakistan to restore the supply line.
Pakistan Refused.
3. How NATO Was Forced To Use The Northern Network
In Nov 2011, after Pakistan closed all NATO supply routes including those through Baloch, the US and its NATO allies were left with no option but to use the extremely difficult and expensive Northern supply route into Afghanistan. There were two options here ( both difficult ) as shown in the map below.
The northern network has two separate approach routes to Afghanistan , one from the Black sea and the other from the Baltic sea that was 4000 Miles long.
Over the next few months, a significant 30 % of the Cargo was landed in a Black sea port and then moved across the Caspian sea and then across 3 – 4 countries before it got to Afghanistan.
The larger 70 % of the cargo to support NATO troops was landed in North Sea ports in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and it had to travel nearly 4000 Miles across 8 countries before getting to Afghanistan.
The Pakistanis meanwhile were taking full advantage of NATO’s discomfort and were demanding that the US Government apologise publicly for the 26th November attacks as Pakistan’s honour had been a casualty.
The Pakistanis were also haggling for more concessions … basically they wanted more money @ US $ 5000 / Truck for restoring the route through Balochistan.
4. Political Masterstroke … Balochistan resolution in US Congress
By February this Northern Network drama and its associated extremely high costs had begun to hurt the US Government & Its NATO allies.
Then someone in the US establishment came up with a Brilliant idea to bring Pakistan to its knees.
A resolution was moved by a group of US Congressmen calling for right to self-determination for the Baloch people.
Introduced by California Republican Dana Rohrabacher and co-sponsored by two other Republican Congressmen Louie Gohmert (Texas) and Steve King (Iowa), the House Concurrent Resolution says that the Balochi nation has a "historic right to self-determination."
The House of Representatives Resolution said " In Pakistan especially, the Balochi people are subjected to violence and extrajudicial killing," and therefore, the Balochi people "have the right to self-determination and to their own sovereign country; and they should be afforded the opportunity to choose their own status."
This resolution created Panic in the
Pakistani civil and Military establishment.
The Resolution in the US Congress also stated " The Balochi, like other nations of people, have an innate right to self-determination," Congressman Rohrabacher said in a statement. "The political and ethnic discrimination they suffer is tragic and made more so because America is financing and selling arms to their oppressors in Islamabad."
The statement explained that historically Balochistan was an independently governed entity known as the Baloch Khanate of Kalat which came to an end after invasions from both British and Persian armies. An attempt to regain independence in 1947 was crushed by an invasion by Pakistan.
"Today the Balochistan province of Pakistan is rich in natural resources but has been subjugated and exploited by Punjabi and Pashtun elites in Islamabad, leaving Balochistan the country's poorest province," it said.
5. Balochistan resolution in the US Congress … Makes Pakistan Frantic
Now, the Pakistani’s were stunned and scared. The US and their European had just checkmated them.
They had found Pakistan’s Achilees heel.
More important, the US had found out how to bring a kicking and screaming Pakistan … back to the negotiating table.
There was no honour now, the Pakistani’s were fighting for survival.
It was now important to save face. Under no circumstances did the Pakistanis want the Baloch resolution to be tabled in the US House of Representatives. In secret meetings with the US the Pakistanis begged for some face saving formula. The US agreed.
So publicly the Pakistanis again made a demand for an apology from the US Government.
So it was that on the 12th of July ‘ 2012, the US Government after kicking the Pakistani’s in the pants, decided to be gracious and the then US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton called Pakistan’s foreign Minister, Ms. Hina Rabbani Khar to apologise for the Salala incident.
Everyone however knows that it was not Clintons apology that made Pakistan relent. The real persuading factor was the US Congress resolution on recognizing Balochistan as an independent Nation State … that moved the needle.
6. Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s Suggestion … Excellent Strategy
Given the above background, what Dr. Subramanian Swamy has said is absolutely correct and the Govt. of India should execute this strategy.
Dr. Subramanian Swamy’s suggestion of recognizing Balochistan as an independent nation state and asking Balochis staying here in India to set up a Govt. in exile … should be welcomed.
Henry Kissinger, the guru of Geopolitics has said " In crises the most daring course is often safest ".
Henry Kissinger has also said “Whatever must happen ultimately should happen immediately ”. In other words, if Govt. of India is going to do this eventually we might as well do it right now.
The Pakistani establishment should be under no illusion. If they kill our former Naval officer Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav, then we know what to do … to fix pakistan permanently
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