PREAMBLE
The international security situation is always in a flux; on account of not only direct security issues, but also because of other aspects that include economic; social; cultural; cyber; energy; trade and commerce; and financial aspects. Some challenges are recent, but others are long term strategic issues.
The global and regional ‘balances of power’ are also impacted by national interests of individual nations, which take precedence even when the issues are collectively highly adverse. A case in point is the ‘war on terrorism’, which seems to have lost its impetus because it affects different countries and even regions differently, resulting in inaction by some nations and only marginal involvement by others. It is unfortunately not realised that collective action today will save lives, money and resources in future.
Good examples are globalisation that is under severe strain; the rapidly changing energy scenario; the changes in climate and global warming that transcend borders; and of course the state of world economy.
It should be the endeavour of all nations of the world to so manage international and regional concerns and challenges that peace and prosperity prevails amongst all the peoples and countries of the world.
FRAYING GLOBALISATION
It was after the end of the Cold War that globalisation became a buzz word in international dialogue and soon gained considerable traction and speed. Nations began understanding the benefits of globalisation and slowly commenced being part of the process.
Globalisation has changed the thinking that ‘a rising power threatens the world order’. Today's rising power (China) is in reality the poster child for globalisation: It is fully invested in the global system; is economically intertwined with the world to a great extent; and hence unlikely to radically shake up the existing order. On the other hand, a declining power is more likely to dilute globalisation, as it may feel that it has nothing to lose even if the world order changes!
Economics is obviously the catalyst for this. China is constantly buying into the globalised system. At another plane, China, the largest customer of West Asian oil, has not even demanded a military seat at the Middle East table? China has a huge reserve of funds and knows that whoever is in power needs to sell to them!
Globalisation was spectacularly successful in enabling millions of people to move out of poverty. However, according to the US, it had three major adverse fallouts, which were terrorism; politically coerced immigration; and global warming! Though the last one is difficult to understand, the US is convinced that there is a direct linkage between the three. The argument is that climate change is the root cause of government instability, which leads to widespread migration, damaged infrastructure and spread of disease; and extremist ideologies prosper in such an environment and that in turn, results in fostering terrorism. While one may not agree with this somewhat convoluted argument, all three issues are of great concern globally, regionally and nationally!
Another important aspect that most will agree with is that globalisation has diluted borders between countries and changed the concept of sovereignty.
DIMINISHING POWER OF USA - THE LONE SUPER POWER
After the end of the Cold War, USA emerged as the only global superpower. However, in most regions today, it is actually in second or third place. Brazil dominates South America. Russia seeks to restore its control over its ‘near abroad’. China pursues regional “hegemony,” and India has economic and demographic capabilities that are the envy of any power.
In the next tier, South Africa, Turkey, Iran, and some other countries manoeuver and compete for regional advantage and leadership. If USA concentrates its full resources in any region, it is certainly overpowering, but the global scope of its concerns limits its ability to do this. USA needs to understand this reality.
The experience of Iraq and Afghanistan shows that even overwhelming military power does not always bring happy results. Unlike the Cold War, USA is not in a direct global contest, but it has to cope with a series of regional contests, some military, some not. America has made mistakes, like its warped strategy in the Middle East. The nearly 13 year effort to bring democracy and gender equality to the Middle East, both theoretically noble goals, has actually produced chaos, confusion and large number of casualties.
Similarly, despite two major wars, which, according to USA were won quickly, both Afghanistan and Iraq continue to bleed. In many respects, USA appears to be on the defensive everywhere, despite being the lone super power. The reason is that the intellectual core of American policy—democracy; self-determination; and rule of law; remain strong but are insufficient in many ways. What USA needs is sustained engagement (not an occasional visit) with emerging powers, as power is rapidly shifting to Eurasia. Overconfidence and unrealistic goals have damaged America in the world, but these can change with pragmatic approaches.
The US policies like “Responsibility to Protect” often sound like “Right to Invade” to countries in the global south. In this type of narrative, neither coercion, nor preaching are viable options. The challenge lies in building a pragmatic global approach to regional efforts and resources to support them. Recent US policies indicate a lack of coherent strategy for this new environment.
CHINA’S MONUMENTAL GROWTH
Economic Aspects
China’s call for a new Eurasian order that diminishes U.S. alliances reflects its comprehensive national power. An innocuous example is China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). It illustrates the problem of America’s lack of influence at least in the economic field.
For years, China has been amassing staggering amounts of gold bullion. With China’s announcement of the gold-backed Yuan, the world will now have a choice of a new currency to use for international trade. The choice would be between the US Dollar, which is backed by ‘nothing’; and the new Chinese Yuan, backed by gold!
When this new currency becomes fully convertible, countries that have been forced to use US Dollars for decades, and have had to keep billions of dollars in their foreign currency reserves, will be free to dump them. But China will not permit them to be dumped in China for the new gold-backed Yuan! China fears that many countries will want to trade their reserve US dollars for the new Yuan, leaving China with mountains of worthless US dollars! The upheaval this could cause would be staggering, as China already has several trillion in US dollar reserves and has no need for more.
Military Aspects
China had commenced indicating its intentions of stepping beyond her traditional land oriented security paradigm, once it became a net importer of oil in 1993. Later in 2005, it went on record to say, “When a nation grows strong enough, it practices hegemony. The sole purpose of power is to pursue power ……. Geography is destiny ……. When a country begins to rise, it shall first set itself in an invincible position”, reflecting China’s ‘Tian Xia’ (under the Heaven) medieval belief which views “all territories” belonging to China.
China has also displayed its hard-line position on land and sea, as manifested by her standoffs with India along the border and China’s oil rig reappearing periodically in Vietnamese waters, along with Chinese vessels attempting to ram Vietnamese Coast Guards vessels. More recently, a Chinese coast guard boat entered Indonesian waters and rammed and retrieved a Chinese fishing boat that had been detained for fishing illegally in Indonesian waters.
China has identified the first quarter of 21st Century as a period of ‘strategic opportunity’ and the next for ‘strategic expansion’ for becoming a ‘Great Power’.
President Xi has optimised the prominence of PLA by taking total charge of it himself. One effect is pooh-poohing the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration jurisdiction to rule on territorial claims of Philippines. It has termed Freedom of Navigation Patrols by US forces as militarisation; and has continued reclaiming more reefs and building military facilities on them. Little wonder then that Philippines signed the ‘Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement’ with the US this year; opened four air bases to US forces; and commenced joint sea patrolling.
The international community needs to focus equally on the next phase of China’s ‘Great Power’ ambition unfolding in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Chinese nuclear submarines have been frequenting the IOR and while her first Carrier Based Group would be based at Hainan Island, subsequent ones would get deployed in the IOR.
Strategic Infrastructures
China has spent colossal amount of funds on infrastructure projects all over the world. These are both for strategic reasons, as well as for facilitating trade and commerce. Only those projects that are of particular concern to China’s neighbours are highlighted.
China is making inroads in Central Asia to get oil and natural gas from Turkmenistan and gas and Uranium from Uzbekistan. With Russia too, it has planned to get natural gas through pipelines. In addition, China is to build a $242 billion, 4,300-mile high-speed railway from Beijing to Moscow.
In Southeast Asia, China has plans for a high-speed rail network, starting in Kunming, in its Yunnan province, and connecting with Myanmar; Thailand; Laos; Cambodia; Vietnam; Malaysia; and Singapore. It also has plans to build a canal across the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand; and a deep-water container port and industrial park in Kuantan, Malaysia.
China has earmarked $42 billion in infrastructure projects in Pakistan. Part of it will help to contain Uighur separatists who have been fomenting violence in Xinjiang. The rest is for financing the deep Arabian Sea port at Gwadar, and joining it to the 1,125-mile-long super-highway; high-speed railway; and oil-pipeline routes to its city- Kashgar.
Sending goods through Pakistan also helps China avoid the Malacca Straits through which much of its oil and other natural resources pass, which is susceptible to being blockaded.
China is also expanding port facilities in Sri Lanka and a $511 million expansion of Male airport in the Maldives.
China does not need to build all of these thousands of miles of railroads and other facilities. Much of the infrastructure already exists; China will link it all together.
China wants to dominate not only the South and East China seas, but far into the Pacific. It is providing $2.5 billion in assistance and commercial credit to South Pacific island nations like Fiji, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu.
All these may not make China’s ambitions necessarily menacing or pernicious, but these add to China’s power and influence.
THE SCOURGE OF TERRORISM
After 9/11, the much publicised ‘war on terrorism’ was announced by the United States. The West joined with gusto and most other countries pledged their support, but Pakistan, which was not only the perpetrator but continues as the hub of world-wide terrorism has surprisingly been kept untouched by the West and is continuing with its nefarious activities.
Terrorism has now morphed into a dangerous, unpredictable series of loose horizontal connections between disparate Jihadi groups, moving easily across national boundaries. The “enemy” is no longer clear-cut – the spectre of extremist fighters returning to their adopted countries; or recruits forced or kidnapped into service; have forced governments to hold back their security forces on account of outdated liberal ideas, which are unrealistic, if not foolish!
The ballooning threats of terrorists have made diplomacy a non-entity and has adversely affected traditional alliances between nations. For example, the perpetrators of the recent attacks in Paris have driven European authorities to downgrade collective intelligence information-sharing and surveillance, with the excuse that the earlier ones had not worked.
The entire Islamic world from the Maghreb in the west to Indonesia in the east is in ferment. ISIL and related fanatical groups transcend borders, political affiliations and even religious orientations.
Most countries are convinced that the threat being common, it should be tackled collectively. However, besides talks, no collective action has so far been planned or taken. The West does provide some aerial support and at places a few advisers, but there is general reluctance to get fully involved, especially with ‘boots on the ground’, which is what is needed and in overwhelming numbers! Reasons are domestic and electoral pressures.
The lack of combined plans/actions are resulting in affected countries like Afghanistan; Iraq; Syria; South Sudan; and others ploughing their lonely furrows and countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran using terrorist groups as proxies in their power struggles, as in Yemen and elsewhere. Such fluid and violent situations could lead to geopolitical surprises, including the dreaded acquisition of nuclear materials or weapons by ISIL or another terrorist group. Another worrisome aspect is the so-called “lone wolf” syndrome, where highly motivated individuals have become so radicalised that they are carrying out major terrorist attacks on their own and inflicting heavy casualties on innocents.
Instead of controlling the spreading tentacles of ISIL; Boko Haram; Taliban; and other terrorist groups; countries on both sides of the Atlantic are adopting Isolationism as a policy, forgetting that however elaborate defensive security measures may be, motivated individuals and groups will find ways to perpetrate terrorist acts. Unless planned and coordinated offensive actions are taken, this menace will continue to grow, as it has been for lack of coordinated offensive action.
This major security threat needs to be neutralized quickly. There would be many peaceniks/liberals of different varieties who will try to stymie such bold actions. They need to be suitably by-passed, otherwise this scourge would destroy everything most civilized countries and people desire.
CLIMATE CHANGE
It is a truism that international cooperation on climate change has faltered and will fall well short of its goals, unless the West consumes less. USA, the biggest consumer of energy and hence primarily responsible for global warming and other climate changes, has to realise that it is in its interest to take strong measures to slow down climate change, instead of leaning on developing countries to do so.
For countries like India, Brazil and others, climate change is important but their priority is development. Countries like India need dozens of new power plants in the next decade if they are to grow—and not just wind farms or solar panels!
ECONOMIC GLOOM
During the last three decades, in economic terms there was a sense of euphoria. In the late 1980s, Japan’s economy was booming. In the 1990s, America basked in victory of the Cold War and a long economic expansion. In the early 2000s, EU was nearly doubling its membership. During the early part of the current decade, the growing political and economic power of China had inspired respect all over the world.
However, in the last two years, a sense of unease and foreboding seems to have affected the world’s major power centres. Today, the big players seem uncertain, even fearful. Japan’s anxiety is perhaps because of continuing tensions with China. Even China seems to be cautious. The era when the government effortlessly delivered a growth of eight per cent or more a year is over. Concerns about domestic financial stability are mounting, besides political anxiety, fueled by the major anti-corruption drive that has led to the arrest of more than 100,000 people.
Europe continues to have an economic crisis that has become worse on account of increasing Jehadi actions. Germany, despite its political and economic strength, is struggling to cope with more than one million refugees, mostly from the Middle East.
Statistically, US should be an exception to this gloom, as it is in the sixth year of an economic expansion. Unemployment is only about five per cent. The US dominates the internet economy and yet the public mood is depressed.
India is probably the only exception, where from the global viewpoint, business and political elite still seem buoyed.
There is anxiety, across the board, about inequality and rage about corruption that is visible in most countries. Workers in the West are disillusioned by a decline in their standards of living, while the very rich in their countries have become much richer. The wealthiest 62 people in the world own as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population — around 3.6 billion people!!
THE ENERGY CONONDRUM
The price decline in oil began as a simple market correction, spurred on by the development of fracking in the United States and some increased use of alternative energy. Experts had thought that the oil market would find equilibrium at $60-70. That has not happened and oil has now turned into a major rout with tremendous historic implications. In 2014, the United States imported approximately 25% less oil from the Middle East than in 2000. A September 2014 report has projected that imports would decline by another 34% by the latter half of the decade.
The rout in oil brings up many questions. Besides West Asian oil producers, the fall in the value of oil has put additional pressure on Russia and countries like Nigeria and Venezuela. The important issue however is the future stability of the Saudi regime and other feudalistic states. The US, which has been the guarantor of the Saudi regime, may not want to honour its commitments, if the need to protect its energy source disappears.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY
Technology by itself is not a global concern, but its effect on economy can be overwhelming. The growth of China’s largest industry, manufacturing, stalled because of automation on a large scale, combined with rising labour and shipping costs.
The geopolitical implications of technological changes are both exciting and worrisome. America is leading the technology boom. Countries that have invested in educating their populations, built strong consumer economies, and have democratic institutions that can deal with social change will benefit, because of taking advantage of the advances in technology.
Robotics and digital manufacturing are likely to create a revolution in manufacturing. China is ahead in robotics, with its Guangdong province already constructing the world’s first “zero-labour factory,” with 1,000 robots. In digital manufacturing and 3D printers, the world leader is USA.
CONCLUSION
The great global challenges we face, from a rising China; increasing terrorism; continuing instability in West Asia; little efforts towards climate change; defeating isolationism; re-igniting the wavering globalisation; and other challenges discussed above; cannot be addressed without close cooperation between all nations that share basic values and interests.
The prevailing feelings across the world of overwhelming threats need to be countered pro-actively. These include all terrorist acts, including ‘lone-wolf acts’ that are on the increase. This is the gravest risk to the world and it needs to be countered by sanity and statesmanship. International cooperation for defeating terrorism must over-ride national interests.
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