PURSUE THE POLICY OF ENCIRCLING PAKISTAN

Harsha Kakar | 30 August, 2016 Indo-Pak relations are slated to remain cold for a prolonged period. Pakistan’s military control over security issues and Indo-Pak talks, as also continued support to anti-India terrorist groups and the present crisis in Kashmir remain stumbling blocks. The statement by Prime Minister Modi from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day, raising atrocities in Baluchistan as also re-inclusion of Gilgit- Baltistan as a part of POK, indicates that India is in no hurry to contemplate dialogue and is even willing to up the ante. The battle of words between the two nations prolongs the present no war-no peace environment. Pakistan has been able to engage India due to support from China, as also its belief in deterrence provided by its nuclear weapons. On the Kashmir issue, others in the international community have been guarded in their comments, even saying this is an internal matter of India, while talks to resolve the issue should be bilateral. The UN has rightfully ignored Pakistan’s pleading on Kashmir. In this scenario, India needs to effectively plan for the long term. In the defensive domain, we need to develop better military capabilities to deter misadventures and simultaneously launch limited counter strikes below the threshold of war. Modern anti-infiltration measures need immediate attention along the western borders. In the offensive military-diplomatic domain, India needs to aggressively pursue isolation and strategic encirclement of Pakistan. This would enhance their vulnerability and threat. For isolation, India needs to reduce support to Pakistan from its traditional allies. Pakistan was secure in the fact that it was a frontline state for the US in the war against terror. It became so confident of its position that it openly boasted of the support and sanctuary that it provided to the Taliban and the Haqqani network. However, continuous needling by India with its growing proximity and engagement with a variety of Congressmen, forced a change in US policy. This compelled the US government to stop all aid (military and development). In reality, Pakistan has almost been discarded by the US. Similar has been the case with most other western nations. Pakistan then attempted to move closer to Russia and even contemplated purchasing arms from them. It extended an invitation to President Putin to visit the country. Putin refused the visit without assigning any valid reason. India needs to continue to engage with Russia to ensure that Pakistan is ignored. Pakistan’s support to the Taliban and the Haqqani network only increases the vulnerability of the Central Asian Republics (CAR) and Russia to terrorism flowing from the region, hence Pakistan should be ignored unless it changes its state terror policies. The only other group which were Pakistan’s traditional allies were Saudi Arabia and the nations of West Asia. The recent visits by Prime Minister Modi and enhancement of economic and security ties resulted in their assuming a neutral stance, slowly reducing assured support. This success of diplomacy was clearly evident when no country from the region issued any statement on Kashmir. Turkey has remained a staunch Pakistan ally. With present engagements increased post the attempted coup, there could be a scaling down in relations. If India does wean Turkey away, then Pakistan may become akin to North Korea, a satellite state of China. While Pakistan continues to bank on the OIC, the group remains divided due to its internal squabbles and disagreements that its comments are ignored. Strategic encirclement needs greater engagement. Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are moving downhill. The recent burning of the Pakistan flag, just across the border, in support of the Prime Minister’s statement supporting Baluchistan is a clear indicator. Increased Taliban actions in the country have further distanced the two nations. Afghanistan has turned to India for military hardware and training. With passage of time, India would also be able to deploy military advisors in Afghanistan, thus opening the road for a military presence. India should aim to deploy air power in Afghanistan, thereby threatening Pakistan from the west. Such an action would increase Pakistan’s threat and severely impact its Afghanistan policy. With Iran, Pakistan’s relations are cordial, solely for the purpose of being neighbours. Trust deficit exists, as Iran is Shii’te as compared to Sunni Pakistan, propped by Saudi Arabia, a sworn enemy. The Chabahar port project, which India has launched to connect with CAR and Afghanistan would increase India’s presence in the region. Though India will not be permitted to deploy military resources, however it could employ its intelligence elements and increase problems for Pakistan. If the government pushes through permanent deployment of air power resources at the Farkhor air base in Tajikistan, which it operates jointly and has used in the past to support the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, it would open a new dimension against Pakistan. Internally Pakistan is amongst the most fractured nations in the world. Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, POK and Sind are troubled provinces. The Prime Minister’s speech and subsequent actions indicated the fear within the Pakistan establishment of options which could open to India in the future. How secure would Pakistan remain with its nuclear arsenal is anybody’s guess. It is aware that its encirclement by India could become a reality and the only option available then would be to become a satellite of China. The fact that Chinese forces are operating in Pakistan to protect the CPEC also indicate China’s lack of trust in Pakistan’s military abilities. The Chinese government directions of denying accommodation to Pakistani nationals in Guangzhou, during the G20 summit, further confirms the low level of faith. Realistically, this policy by India would pay dividends in the future. It could possibly be the only way; Pakistan may be compelled to change and peace would be restored in the sub-continent