http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Globespotting/high-stakes-of-narendra-modis-upcoming-meetings-with-shinzo-abe-xi-jinping-and-barack-obama/
August 28, 2014, 12:04 AM IST Indrani Bagchi
Kyoto, Japan’s former imperial capital, will host a new tourist this weekend as Narendra Modi stops over to take in the sights of one of the most beautiful cities in the world. It will be the start of a month of top-notch global engagement from Shinzo Abe through Xi Jinping to Barack Obama. These meetings will not only build personal relationships and give shape to Modi’s foreign policy, but they will also give a taste of the new Asian architecture.
Modi, like his predecessor, holds a special place for Japan in his strategic calculus. Nevertheless, both sides will be working with two disappointments. India’s abrupt cancellation of Modi’s visit in July resulted in significant loss of ‘face’ for the Japanese, which the Indian government should have been more sensitive to. On the other hand, with just a couple more days to go for the visit, a block by the famed Japanese Gaimusho (foreign office bureaucracy) on the bilateral civil nuclear deal is evident. If a deal is indeed struck between now and the Modi-Abe meeting, it will be because two strong leaders exercised their political will for a converging strategic future.
With the clarity of vision that Modi brings to the Asian leadership pantheon, high-stakes Asian geopolitics is set to become a lot more interesting. It comes at a time when China’s expansionist outlook contrasts with the US’s fading footprint. Moscow’s economic miscalculations might, for the first time, make Russia play second fiddle to China. On the other hand, rising powers in Asia — from India to Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan (even South Korea and Australia, though they still shelter under the American umbrella) — are becoming rich and powerful almost in tandem. And all of them are working harder than ever to ensure that China remains one of Asia’s giants, not its sole spokesman.
Modi will return to India next week to sign a real civil nuclear deal — with the Australian PM, Tony Abbott. Australia bids fair to becoming India’s most important partner for resources —from coal (Adani’s Carmichael project is the latest) to gas, uranium and, let’s not forget, dal. India and Australia are now embarking on increased security understandings in the Indian Ocean — Australia will join the Malabar naval exercises in 2015, which Japan joined in 2014.
Japan plays an important role in India’s transformation, even if it means India has to break some china to do it. Equally, India benefits if Japan can successfully evolve into a ‘normal’ nation. Japan’s involvement in India can ensure a couple of things — higher value Indian manufacturing, higher quality infrastructure and the creation of an alternative supply chain system in Asia, which would have larger implications for the continent. Economics, as Manmohan Singh used to say, when big enough, becomes strategic.
How Modi deals with Abe, Xi and Obama will be keenly watched across the globe. Xi’s visit here, scheduled for mid-September, will be crucial. In many ways, Modi and Xi are two of a kind — Xi is rated as the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng. Modi too comes with the kind of jaw-dropping mandate not seen in 30 years. They have the ability to take decisions that could affect the future of both nations.
Modi wants to establish a new paradigm for ties with China, but he understands that as long as the border is disputed, these can be only sub-optimal. For instance, he wants China to invest in Indian infrastructure but will have to battle many in the Indian system who want to keep the Chinese away from critical sectors. On the other hand, India (along with Pakistan and Iran) may soon get membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a China-led security grouping intended to keep the US out.
Playing a delicate tightrope, Modi presumably will not be tempted to return to articulating the ‘one-China’ policy, which India abandoned since 2010. Instead, India would do well to focus on the Chinese defence minister General Chang Wanquan’s words to Chuck Hagel — on the issue of what he called territorial sovereignty, China would “make no compromise, no concession, no treaty”. “The Chinese military can assemble as soon as summoned, fight any battle and win.”
This holds the key to why Modi will find himself in the White House at the end of next month, nine years after he was refused a visa by them.
Barack Obama is entering the lame duck phase of his second presidency, which means that while Modi, the ultimate pragmatist, will want results, Obama the transactional president, may have more words than action. For eyeballs, therefore, expect the Modi visit to the US to be in the nature of a big fat Indian wedding, as Modi plays the NRIs to invest in India. But the US relationship is crucial — if India wants to win the great game here in Asia.
The action, particularly on the political-security front, has started with India working out both politico-security minilateral groupings, as well as building economic corridors in Asia. India, Australia and Indonesia have already begun a ‘trialogue’ to explore possibilities. A new trilateral arrangement brewing between India, Japan and Australia has greater strategic prospects. India and Japan with US have taken the first steps towards building east-west connectivity in Southeast Asia — through the northeast and Myanmar, countering China’s north-south connectivity projects.
The bottomline — China’s projects are almost complete, India’s are yet to start. Can India be a successful tortoise?
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