Grey Zone Warfare: Way Ahead for India by Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh PVSM, AVSM (Retd),
Pages 274, Price B 1450/-, ISBN
978-81-19438-02-0, Vij Books.
Grey Zone War has become
the preferred choice of countries to secure their national interests due to low
cost, deniability, and difficulty in attribution. The book has attempted to
demystify the grey zone warfare and thereafter highlight the grey threats that
India is facing especially from its arch rivals China and Pakistan. At the same
time, it has also examined countries indulging in grey zone activities such as
US, Russia, and Israel to draw out lessons in formulating a way ahead for
India.
Grey zone warfare, characterized by its low
cost and deniability, has become the preferred method for nations to advance
their national interests. Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh's book, "Grey
Zone Warfare: Way Ahead for India," attempts to demystify this evolving
form of conflict. The book examines how countries engage in grey zone tactics,
highlights the threats India faces, and proposes changes to India's security
architecture. As technology blurs the lines between war and peace, the spectrum
of conflict has expanded to include political, economic, cyber, information,
and irregular warfare, as well as lawfare, proxy wars, and hybrid warfare.
Singh's work explores the complexities of these new forms of conflict and
suggests appropriate responses and structural modifications.
About the
Author
Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh (Retd),
PVSM, AVSM, was commissioned into the 9 MARATHA Light Infantry in December
1981, eventually commanding the battalion. His distinguished career includes
numerous command, staff, and instructional appointments across various
terrains, notably commanding his Brigade and Division in Jammu & Kashmir
and 11 Corps in Punjab. An alumnus of the National Defence College, he
specialized in terrorist operations and financing at the Defence Counter
Terrorism Programme at the Naval Post Graduate School in the United States. He
has also served twice in the National Security Guard. A prolific writer and
scholar, General Singh previously headed the Army War College and currently
serves as the Director General of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies.
About the
Book
The book is divided into eight chapters and
six appendices, offering a comprehensive look at grey zone warfare.
Key
Chapters and Themes
Chapter 1: Grey Zone as the Emerging Frontier
in War
The chapter sets the stage by highlighting the
increasing prominence of grey zone warfare as the preferred tool for states to
achieve national interests. General Singh aptly illustrates the concept's
deniability, low cost, and difficulty in attribution, making it an attractive
option for adversaries. The author provides compelling examples, such as the
targeting of the Mumbai electricity grid in 2020, to underscore the tangible
impacts of these ostensibly "below-threshold" activities. This chapter
effectively establishes the urgency and relevance of the subject, prompting
readers to consider the shifting paradigms of conflict.
Author
introduces the concept of the grey zone as a new battleground, citing the
targeting of the Mumbai electricity grid on October 10, 2020, as an example. He
notes how the COVID-19 crisis further complicated this space, with countries
fabricating narratives for blame or to serve national interests. The author
provocatively questions whether India's perceived weak response in this domain
stems from idealism, a lack of capability, or a lack of political will.
Chapter 2: Demystifying Grey Zone Warfare
In this pivotal chapter, General Singh delves
into the theoretical framework of grey zone warfare, clarifying its
distinctions from related concepts like "hybrid warfare." He argues
that the term "grey zone" is not a geographically defined area but
rather a "color-based metaphor" describing a state between war and
peace. The author's explanation of grey zone activities as aimed at securing
political or territorial gains without crossing the threshold of open warfare
is precise and insightful. This chapter provides a critical conceptual
foundation, enabling a clearer understanding of the nuanced nature of these
conflicts.
Chapter 3: Russia – An Adept Practitioner Quoting General Gerasimov ("War in the 21st Century is conducted
at a roughly four-to-one ratio of non-military and traditional military tools
and tactics"), Singh highlights Russia as a master of grey zone tactics.
He explains the six stages of the Gerasimov Doctrine, even acknowledging
Michael Kofman's counter-argument denying the doctrine's existence. The chapter
details Russia's grey zone activities, from its "nuclear campaign to
maintain a strategic advantage with the US" to expanding its global influence,
asserting that Russia "has played the grey zone with all instruments of
statecraft."
Chapter 4: The US – A Subtle Player Singh categorizes the United States as a "subtle player" in
the grey zone. He references a study by Lindsey O’Rourke, stating that between
1947 and 1989, the US attempted 72 regime changes, 64 of which were covert.
More recently, the US has been involved in the "War on Terror" in
Afghanistan and regime changes in Iraq and Libya. While overt reasons for
intervention may seem straightforward, they are primarily linked to securing US
interests. These activities range from proxy wars and economic coercion to information
operations, which benefit from a "lack of attributability." This
includes media campaigns against India, with the author citing various US
newspaper articles as evidence.
Chapter 5: China – The Dragon is Not Far
Behind Citing Sun Tzu's maxim, "Subdue the
enemy without fighting," Singh asserts that "The Dragon is not far
behind in the grey world." China's preferred tools are "information
operations," including stifling criticism of the Chinese Communist Party
by dissidents abroad. "Unrestricted Warfare" appears to be its
overarching concept, operationalized through "The three-warfare
strategy." The People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force,
particularly its Network Systems Department, spearheads these efforts. Quoting
Colonel Xiangsui, the author emphasizes that "All means will be in
readiness, that information will be omnipresent and the battlefield will be
everywhere. It means weapons and technology can be superimposed at will and the
boundaries between military and non-military and war and peace will be
destroyed." Singh concludes that China considers India a major regional
challenger and aims to keep it unsettled.
Chapter 6: Israel – Master of Grey Zone
Warfare Singh hails Israel as a master of grey zone
warfare, though he identifies a "chink in its armor." Israel's
tactics primarily target countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, as well as
non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel consistently blends
traditional warfare with grey zone actions, including assassinations. The book
details the elimination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh by "a
high-tech computerized sharpshooter kitted with artificial intelligence and
multiple camera eyes operated via a satellite." Though Israel did not
claim responsibility, many believe it was involved. The author also recounts
Israel's cyber-attack using the "StuxNet" virus to disrupt Iran's
nuclear weapon development program. However, he notes Israel's vulnerability in
the information domain to the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas,
which Israel countered with its "Hasbara" concept, refined into a
more centralized policy incorporating a greater number of social media platforms.
India's
Challenges and Way Forward
These chapters shifts focus to India's
specific challenges. General Singh meticulously details the grey zone threats
emanating from India's traditional rivals, China and Pakistan. He explains how
these nations employ various grey zone tactics to undermine India's security
interests. For instance, in the context of China, the author discusses
"salami-slicing" tactics, information warfare, and economic coercion,
while for Pakistan, it encompass proxy warfare and cross-border terrorism. This
chapter is vital for its direct relevance to India's strategic landscape,
offering a nuanced understanding of the adversaries' methods.
Chapters 7 & 8: India’s Challenges and
Organizing for Response These chapters form the
core of the book, outlining the author's vision for India's response to grey
zone threats. Regarding China, Singh posits that while China views the
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) as linked to its security interests, it
is unlikely to escalate border skirmishes into major conflict. Instead, China
will likely continue grey zone activities through "salami slicing,"
cyber-attacks, regime changes in India's neighborhood (Myanmar being a current
example), information operations, and leveraging other countries against India,
as seen with Nepal's Lipulekh border dispute during the Galwan crisis.
Pakistan, described as a "Past
Master," has waged a proxy war against India with "minuscule sums in
terms of military and finances." Its consistent use of non-military means
to achieve objectives below the threshold of war has yielded disproportionate
outcomes, as evidenced in Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir. In the latter,
Pakistan uses the diplomatic domain to multilateralize what India views as a
bilateral issue. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) controls terror
groups used against India.
Strategic communication is identified as a
critical component of grey zone warfare, with social media and digital
manipulation being the new tools for misinformation. Singh emphasizes that
social media is the "domain for the future" and provides case
studies, including the Shaheen Bagh protest, to support his argument. At the
core of information warfare is "building a strong narrative."
The author suggests various communication
strategies for social media, print, and traditional electronic media. He highlights the need for a dedicated body to
handle information warfare, perhaps a "National Strategic Communication
Authority." He stresses the imperative to develop both offensive and
defensive solutions in the grey zone, requiring greater synergy among all
components of the security architecture, dovetailed with foreign policy
objectives. A whole-of-nation approach to national security is vital, though
Singh acknowledges that a traditionally laid-down, black-and-white grey zone
policy may not be feasible due to the inherent ambiguity.
Conclusion
and Impact
Given the inherent advantages of operating in
shades of grey, nations increasingly favor it as a strategic tool, with
technological advancements further enhancing its appeal. The author argues for
an "all-nations approach" to tackle grey zone threats, which involves
integrating all agencies dealing with the grey zone while upholding a
rules-based international order. The Galwan incident is presented as a prime
example of China's skillful grey zone activity, driven by its displeasure with
India's stance on the coronavirus, the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, and
the construction of the Leh-Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road, all aimed at testing India's
resolve.
This meticulously researched book is a
scholarly work whose arguments are well-supported by adequate references. It
will prove invaluable to security practitioners and policymakers seeking
clarity on the complexities of grey zone warfare. As nations continue to
exploit the ambiguity of grey zones at multiple levels to circumvent
international laws and shape a more ambiguous world order, the central
challenge remains: how to preserve the values and rules of combat in an
environment where "there are no rules and nothing is forbidden."
Overall Assessment:
"Grey Zone Warfare: Way Ahead for
India" is a commendable and essential contribution to contemporary
strategic thought. Lieutenant General Dushyant Singh's extensive experience and
academic rigor shine through in his comprehensive analysis. The book's
strengths lie in its clear demystification of grey zone concepts, its detailed
examination of specific threats faced by India from China and Pakistan, and its
insightful case studies of other major powers. The "whole of nation"
approach advocated by the author is a valuable
takeaway, highlighting the need for inter-agency coordination and a holistic
response.
While the book provides a strong foundation,
the evolving nature of grey zone threats means that some recommendations may
require continuous refinement. Nevertheless, it serves as an indispensable
resource for policymakers, military strategists, academics, and anyone
interested in understanding the complex security challenges of the 21st century
and India's potential responses. The book successfully achieves its objective
of providing an unbiased and well-researched perspective on grey zone warfare
from an Indian lens.
No comments:
Post a Comment