Amidst few victories and few losses, a ceasefire was enforced with talks between the Houthis and the Yemen official government, which was now in power in the South of Yemen, propped up by the Saudis. Sporadic attacks by the Houthis on Saudi targets in the UAE and southern oil fields in Saudi Arabia kept the tensions brewing. For the last two years, there had been some quiet amidst attempts to solve the Houthi humanitarian crisis, which arose due to the coalition forces blockading the port city of Hodeidah in North Yemen. The conflict has taken a heavy toll on Yemeni civilians, making Yemen the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The UN estimates that 60 per cent of the estimated 377,000 deaths in Yemen between 2015 and the beginning of 2022 were the result of indirect causes like food insecurity and lack of accessible health services. Two-thirds of the population, or 21.6 million Yemenis, remain in dire need of assistance. Five million are at risk of famine, and a cholera outbreak has affected over one million people. All sides of the conflict are reported to have violated human rights and international humanitarian law.
As if this is not enough, there are pockets within central Yemen which are under the control of Al Qaeda, called the AQAP (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and who have their terrorist operations being launched from there on American and Western targets. The US is heavily invested in eradicating terrorism emerging out of Yemen in light of the 2000 bombing of USS Cole at the port city of Aden. To eliminate Al Qaeda in Yemen, it carried out special operations in their area, mainly through air strikes and some through special forces, after 2020.
The above indicates the presence of rival interests, which result in friction and violence across the length and breadth of Yemen. The Houthis are entrenched in the North and West, Al Qaeda in the Centre in small measure, and the government and other splinter groups like the Al Islah in the South and East. It would be prudent for a warfare student to ask: How has a ragtag rebel force like the Houthis survived the onslaught of the mighty coalition powers like the Saudis and the US? There need to be documented answers to this question, but none exist. Yet the plausible explanation lies in the terrain which confronts the coalition forces.
Physical Map of Yemen
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The near-high altitude mountains inhibit any offensive manoeuvre. Especially for the coalition forces who do not know the terrain nor have the motivation to push themselves to conquer it. As an easier option, they resort to aerial bombing, and like the Tora Bora, the Houthis have become experts at surviving the aerial onslaught.
The Israel-Hamas conflict brought a new dimension to the Houthi conflict. Let no one harbour a notion that the Houthis have survived on their own accord. Behind their success and dogged determination lies the invisible hand of Iran, who has, through covert means, armed and financed the Houthi rebel movement to counter their traditional enemy, the Saudis. From a ragtag force today, the Houthis display an impressive array of weaponry, most of which have their origins in Iran, North Korea, China, or Russia. The Houthis boast of ballistics and cruise missiles, drones, anti-shipping missiles and rocket artillery. Their Quds 2 cruise missile has a range of 1600 km and was used to destroy the Saudi oil terminals in Abu Dhabi. Their Anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles have an impressive range of 300 to 500 km. They also have rocket artillery. And they boast of a 100,000-strong manpower force.
The Israel-Hamas conflict also owes its origins to the Saudi-Iran rivalry for supremacy in the Middle East. Therefore, the jumping in of the Houthis in support of Hamas and the Palestinians could be attributed to the Iran-Hezbollah axis. Previously, the Houthis had shown no solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Their unexpected jumping into the fray targeting merchant shipping in the Red Sea would switch the limelight towards their cause. Whether Iran propped them to act against ships or not would remain a conjecture, yet for the Houthis, it was an opportunity they grabbed with both their hands. They jumped into the fray on November 23 in opposition to Israel. Any ship going or coming out of Israel or belonging to Israel was a target for the Houthis. Since then, they have attacked 33 vessels, sinking one of them and damaging the rest. Three civilian personnel have been killed in these attacks.
Map Showing the Location of Attacks on Merchant Vessels Near Bab el —Mandab Straits
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The actual effect of these attacks is on the psyche of the shipping companies. As quoted earlier, the damage is minuscule, as world navies, including the US, UK, and India, have their naval ships patrol the sea lanes to counter any anti-ship threat to merchant vessels. Yet the fear of attacks and cargo loss has compelled the shipping companies to opt for a longer yet safer route via the Cape of Good Hope.
A back-of-the-hand calculation suggests that a medium-sized bulk carrier travelling from a Mediterranean port, say Marseilles, to the Malacca straits, travelling at an average speed of 14 knots, will take 13 extra days to complete the same journey via Cape of Good Hope instead of Suez Canal. The additional fuel consumption of this ship due to the longer route would be approx. 455 tons, which at $600 per ton comes to $273,000 per ship (Note: Details calculation have yet to be worked out but not given in the paper). While the cost of fuel is visible, the invisible cost, which is far more significant, is the rise in insurance costs. Ships associated with Israel or its allies are finding it hard to find insurers. For others, the insurance costs have gone up multifold. This disruption in cost factors is the disruptive effect of the Houthi intervention in the Red Sea.
As if this is not enough, the Houthis have alleged to have cut three subsea internet lines. 25 per cent of the digital data flow in the world is through 14 subsea internet cables, which lie on the bed of the Red Sea and near the coasts under the control of the Houthis. The three cables cut were in the vicinity of Houthi control territories. While the Houthis have denied their hand in cutting off the cable, their previous threats and utterances make it hard to believe that they are not the culprits. One of the cut cables is the Seacom TGN Gulf line, owned by Tata Communications of India. 50 % of India's regional data flow depends upon this line. There are redundancies due to which data traffic is diverted through other channels. But the sitting of the subsea internet lines is sitting ducks for someone desperate to disrupt the existing peace.
Conclusion
The limitations of space and time do not allow us to spell out the complete effect of this disruption. In the shadow of the debilitating pandemic and the throes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Houthi dimension can send the world economy into a tizzy if it is allowed to continue for long. India has a stake as all its merchant shipping flows through the Red Sea region. It also has a stake in the littoral states, contributing to India's strategic interests. India has deployed INS Kolkata, a naval destroyer class ship, to patrol the area with the other navies to safeguard our shipping interests. A rogue attack is like a cat-and-mouse game. Nobody can guess when and where the cat will spring up as a surprise. Amid the rising human toll in the Gaza Strip and with Iran openly supporting Hezbollah to join the conflict on Israel's northern border, the prospect of the end of the conflict seems far distant. The Houthis expect this as it allows them to stay in the limelight longer. Would the world find a peaceful solution to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea or continue their belligerent stance and continue to bomb Houthi targets is a matter of conjecture. If you are unsure, do not open up multiple fronts. Stabilize one before you attack the other. In light of this, the Houthi Problem poses a more significant threat to the world economy and thus deserves to be addressed.
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