Change in Kyiv's Approach: Ukrainian Foreign Minister's Visit to India Reflects Shift

This week, New Delhi welcomes an intriguing visitor — Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, marking the first official visit from Ukraine to India in seven years. Since the last visit by former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in 2017, significant changes have occurred, both in Ukraine due to its conflict with Russia and in the relationship between India and Ukraine. India's refusal to join the West in condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its commitment to maintaining an independent stance have played a crucial role in this transformation.

 

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated into a full-fledged war in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on multiple trips to Western countries, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Turkey. While these visits were primarily tied to various multilateral summits, their underlying objective was to garner international support for Ukraine in its battle against Russia. Whether it was the poignant visuals from the Canadian parliament or Zelensky's visit to Washington, each event included an appeal for aid and material support, along with a call to the global community to stand on the "right side of history."

 

While Ukraine's top leader sought support worldwide, India faced a barrage of criticism from Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Kuleba, who is currently on a two-day visit to India. In August 2022, Kuleba made a statement targeting India's purchase of discounted Russian crude oil, saying, "When India purchases Russian crude oil (at a discount), they have to understand that the discount has to be paid by Ukrainian blood." Furthermore, after the G20 summit in New Delhi, Ukraine responded dismissively to India's efforts in securing a declaration, stating that it was "nothing to be proud of." In 2023, Ukraine went as far as its presidential advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, criticizing India for lacking an understanding of the modern world and labeling it a country with "weak intellectual potential." Even a senior Ukrainian lawmaker and head of the Ukrainian parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, called for sanctions against India for buying Ukrainian oil.

 

Fast forward to March 2024, and Ukraine has suddenly shifted its stance towards India. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, during his visit to New Delhi, not only praised India as a global power deserving a seat at the United Nations Security Council but also acknowledged it as an important "global voice." This change of heart is driven by Ukraine's self-interest. Kuleba's visit to India aims to mend relations, strengthen bilateral ties, and seek humanitarian aid. However, the most crucial item on the agenda is securing India's participation in a high-level peace conference organized by Switzerland, based on Zelensky's peace formula, scheduled for the coming months.

 

Ironically, the same Ukraine that failed to understand India's energy security needs as a developing country relying on discounted oil imports from Russia during volatile energy prices is now requesting India to leverage its influence in the Global South to support Ukraine's cause at the peace table in Switzerland. Kuleba believes that India's presence will attract more nations from the Global South to join Ukraine's cause. However, there is a catch.

 

India's position on the Ukraine-Russia war has remained consistent from the start. India firmly believes that the conflict cannot be resolved through warfare and that a peaceful solution is imperative. New Delhi has expressed interest in mediating peace between the warring parties, as reiterated by Foreign Minister S Jaishankar in an interview with the German economic daily Handelsblatt in February.

 

However, India is highly unlikely to accept any invitation that could jeopardize its strategic ties with Russia. Neither Russia itself nor Ukraine genuinely desires Russia's participation in the peace conference. For Ukraine, the conference is more of a show of strength, which is why it seeks India's support as a rising power with global appeal. Nonetheless, India will not join any gathering that aims to undermine Russia, its long-standing and valued partner.

 

Kuleba himself recognized this, explaining to India during his visit that their ties with Russia, based on the "Soviet legacy," have no future. He emphasized that it is the Ukraine-India relationship that holds promise, as India can play a vital role not only in ensuring peace in Ukraine but also in post-war reconstruction. However, India's response to Ukraine's offer is unlikely to be affirmative.

 

India's relationship with Russia is multi-dimensional and has stood the test of time. Even after the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, India and Russia quickly adapted to changing circumstances. Furthermore, India's growing proximity to the United States to balance China has been accepted and understood by Moscow.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently secured a resounding victory in the elections, has expressed this sentiment on numerous occasions. Putin was among the early world leaders to recognize India's great power potential and expressed Russia's deep desire to see it materialize.

 

In return,India has valued its strategic partnership with Russia, which has spanned defense cooperation, energy ties, and diplomatic support on various international platforms. India sees Russia as a reliable partner that understands its security concerns and has been a consistent ally on issues such as Kashmir and counter-terrorism. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that India will jeopardize this relationship by openly siding with Ukraine in a manner that could antagonize Russia.

 

While India may not participate in the peace conference as Ukraine desires, it will continue to support a peaceful resolution to the conflict through diplomatic channels. India has called for a dialogue-based solution and has expressed its willingness to play a mediatory role if requested by both parties. This approach aligns with India's broader foreign policy principles of non-alignment, strategic autonomy, and promoting peace and stability.

 

In conclusion, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister's visit to India reflects a shift in Ukraine's approach towards India, driven by its self-interest in seeking support for its peace conference and bilateral ties. However, India's stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict is unlikely to change significantly due to its strategic partnership with Russia. While India will continue to support a peaceful resolution, it is improbable that it will take actions that could undermine its relationship with Russia.