Learning from Ukraine's Strategy Against the Russian Navy: Insights for India

Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) offer a compelling advantage in modern naval warfare due to their ease of manufacturing, control, and deployment at sea. Ukraine's innovative approach in employing multiple inexpensive and compact USVs to target and disable larger Russian ships presents valuable lessons for India.

 Recent events have showcased the effectiveness of Ukraine's strategy. Utilizing Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus (MAGURA) V5 USVs, Ukrainian forces successfully coordinated attacks to sink Russian naval vessels like the Sergey Kotov, Caesar Kunikov, and the Ivanovets. This tactic involves deploying a group of five to ten MAGURA USVs, each equipped with a substantial warhead and capable of distracting and absorbing fire from the target. While defenders focus on repelling the USVs, one manages to breach defenses and disable the ship, followed by coordinated strikes from the remaining USVs.

 This method, reminiscent of the age-old strategy of overwhelming the enemy with sheer numbers of cost-effective weapons, has proven highly effective for Ukraine against the Russian Navy, despite the vast difference in resources. Notably, the Russians, despite their superior naval strength, have struggled to control the Black Sea shipping lanes against this unconventional threat.

 In the context of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), Pakistan faces a similar predicament against India, albeit with a comparatively better-equipped navy. However, the numerical superiority of the Indian Navy, including its formidable fleet and historical precedence of establishing dominance in the region, poses significant challenges to Pakistan's maritime security.

Recognizing the limitations of traditional naval confrontations, Pakistan is exploring asymmetric tactics to counter India's naval dominance. This includes the induction of midget submarines and the potential adoption of Ukraine's USV strategy. USVs offer distinct advantages, being cost-effective, easily deployable, and capable of multiple engagement attempts, unlike conventional anti-ship missiles.

 Pakistan can either develop its own USVs or procure them from the international market, potentially leveraging Ukraine's expertise in this area. Collaborative efforts between Pakistan and Ukraine could yield advanced USV technologies, incorporating artificial intelligence and machine learning for autonomous operations. However, the vulnerability of USVs to satellite communication jamming underscores the need for robust countermeasures.

 For India, understanding and mitigating the threat posed by USV tactics is paramount to maintaining naval superiority in the IOR. Failure to address this emerging challenge could result in significant disruptions and vulnerabilities, akin to Ukraine's experience against Russia. Hence, proactive measures to develop effective counters to USV threats are imperative to safeguard India's maritime interests and prevent strategic setbacks akin to "another Abhinandan moment."