Pakistan is not all-weather friend but is all-weather trouble to China

 Pakistan is grappling with escalating security challenges, with recent events implicating China in its troubles. The attempted breach at the Pak navy base PNS Siddique by militants from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) in Turbat, Balochistan, just days after an attack on the Gwadar port complex, underscores this precarious situation. The common denominator in these incidents is China, with Gwadar being a pivotal node in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and the naval base reportedly housing Chinese drones.

Further exacerbating tensions, five Chinese nationals fell victim to a suicide bombing in northwest Pakistan, highlighting the vulnerability of CPEC projects. The perception is growing that these ventures primarily benefit Pakistan's military elite at the expense of its impoverished population, particularly in resource-rich Balochistan, where longstanding grievances against Islamabad's perceived dominance have intensified, now extending to its close ally Beijing.

Despite the Pakistani army's efforts to safeguard CPEC initiatives, attacks persist, revealing the inadequacy of security measures. Yet, Pakistan has a history of leveraging terrorist groups to advance its interests. The BLA, a persistent thorn for Islamabad, now serves as a potential bargaining chip, particularly in dealings with China as it grapples with mounting debt from Chinese loans.

However, this tactical maneuvering comes with significant costs, evidenced by the toll on civilian lives and the resurgence of attacks by groups like the Pakistani Taliban following the collapse of a ceasefire in November 2022. The military's purported strategy of fostering ties with the Afghan Taliban for "strategic depth" has also proven flawed.

While the Pakistani military maintains control, China faces the grim reality that its investments may never yield returns, jeopardizing its reputation. As Beijing grapples with this realization, India must remain vigilant to prevent the spillover of Pakistani terrorism. Any weakening of the Beijing-Islamabad alliance would be favorable for New Delhi's security interests